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Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

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Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#141

Post by pc86 »

afpx wrote: post #117
pc86 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need a solid argument to have doubts, you need to hear a solid argument (or more accurately, several of them over some period of time) not to have doubts, and even then you should be checking and doubting your own assumptions. Not everyone is a scientist or an engineer. You don't have to be an idiot to read the above statements and have your main takeaway be "they don't know for sure so they guessed" and it…

So, you’re saying the models that have been used and refined over decades have been wildly inaccurate? It’d be interesting to me to see that analysis. Maybe it’ll change my mind.

I didn't say that at all, clearly you're the one operating in bad faith now.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#142

Post by pc86 »

swader999 wrote: post #135
pc86 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are three charts in the article. Two are 1979-2023 and the other appears to just be the top 30 hottest months from the same time period.

This is a ridiculously short period for these sorts of claims.

I mean they are pretty solidly up and to the right. Are there charts with data from the 60s/50s/40s that drastically change the trend?

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#143

Post by edhelas »

zx8080 wrote: post #125
edhelas wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like what will actually happen _tomorrow_ if we don't act radically _now_.

Just to be sure, are you proposing killing people today so that they don't die tomorrow?

Because eating less meat, stop taking the plane, reducing our consumption level, replacing cars with bikes and trains and other stuff like that seems radical to you ?

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#144

Post by RandomLensman »

ndsipa_pomu wrote: post #130
RandomLensman wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing of that sort will happen "tomorrow", and even if true it would not justify genocidal policies today.

The true genocidal policy is to continue dumping CO2 into the atmosphere in increasing amounts. Personally, I feel it is more honest for us to deal with the outcomes of what "we" are doing now, rather than just leaving it for our children to deal with.

The future is fundamentally uncertain. Climate change will be addressed but not by corporate welfare programs like net zero nor by impoverishing rich populations.

The idea that the simplistic socio-economic models/pathways are in any way right or predictive was just a fantasy.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#145

Post by NotYourLawyer »

moritz wrote: post #128
NotYourLawyer wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, there are some people who are not persuadable no matter what. But there are other people who are not crazy but who see stuff like this and have legitimate doubts.

Sure, we only built gigantonormous infrastructures to measure about everything on every cm of this planet, 10s of thousands of highly qualified experts from all over the world work on this full time and have been saying the same thing for decades, but “there are people” who have “““legitimate doubts”””. Sure.

I’m talking specifically about the data from before that infrastructure existed.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#146

Post by markwkw »

badtension wrote: post #7

> It was the hottest August on record – by a large margin – and the second hottest ever month after July 2023, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA 5 dataset. August as a whole is estimated to have been around 1.5°C warmer than the preindustrial average for 1850-1900, according to the C3S monthly climate bulletin. Thinking about getting to 1.5 C averaged over the planet is surreal and we are still 3…

On the other hand, looking at lived experience the story is quite tricky.

From the perspective of an individual it is very hard to detect this level of climate change. I can't tell how much warmer any given month was compared to even 20 years ago. We're talking about 28 vs 28.5°C average for a month. (and July and August made news because of pronounced anomalies, other months were probably even murkier stories due to natural monthly variability). This is not perceptible. And no one has an experiential reference point of Average Global Temperature of the 20th Century.

How hot was May of 2003 compared to May of 2023? I could attempt a guess but have zero confidence in it. Do you remember the average temperature of your teenage years summers? "It was hot", "between 25-30..." is all I can give without looking at data.

This is something we should keep in mind when advocating for climate measures, otherwise sceptics have another easy attack - "it feels basically the same, what are you talking about"

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#147

Post by quonn »

jokoon wrote: post #98

It's odd how everytime somebody mentions slashing oil production by 50 or 75%, people are immediately up in arms. Same for red meat or cheap air travel. Western rich countries have too many really spoiled consumers. It's weird to say, but we should crash the economy if it can slow down climate change. I mean there are plenty people in other parts of the world who don't have such a high standard of living, and it's no…

„It's weird to say, but we should crash the economy if it can slow down climate change.“

You can do this exactly once. Afterwards the cause will be severely discredited and no candidate doing even moderate climate change policies will be able to be elected.

In short this is stupid.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#148

Post by swader999 »

pc86 wrote: post #142
swader999 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a ridiculously short period for these sorts of claims.

I mean they are pretty solidly up and to the right. Are there charts with data from the 60s/50s/40s that drastically change the trend?

30s were significantly hotter.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#149

Post by pier25 »

cmews wrote: post #90

My prediction is that geo-engineering will be done when a certain death/disturbance threshold will have been reached (too many climate refugees for example and western world can't achieve a closed border, or too many weather disasters that hit the western world and populations are convinced it is because of global warming). However I don't think we will reach it in the next 5-10 years, but maybe after that period. Al…

The 2030s is when I think things are going to start getting serious.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#150

Post by totetsu »

nprateem wrote: post #80
enraged_camel wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of me feels sad, part of me feels dread, and part of me says, "well, we're just reaping what we have been (and still are) sowing, and we collectively deserve all that is coming." All the suffering sucks though.

Only some are more culpable than others. The climate crisis represents the single biggest failure of humanity. How stupid do our leaders need to be to know about an extinction level event (or at least one that threatens the breakdown of civilisation) with > 50 years notice and take no substantive action? They should be charged for crimes against humanity.

Some people just want power and ego and status, some people just want things to be simple and not change from what they know, and a significantly smaller number of people just want to be chill and sensible.
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