Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather
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Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather
#2[flagged]
Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather
#3I'm getting 503, so: https://archive.ph/FdOZJ
Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather
#4We're technically still in an ice age [1]. How far does this need to go to reach the end of that ice age [2]?
The Cretaceous period was over ten degrees warmer than our current period [3,4,5]. It supported a lot (though much different) biodiversity. How long would it take us to push into these temperature ranges? And how long to exceed them?
How much species diversity will we lose at each half degree increment from this point forward? Will we see some species better equipped (increased as opposed to decreased fitness) by temperature increases? Will we see any quick evolution to support climage changes?
When will temperatures be incompatible with ranges necessary to sustain society? When will they be incompatible with human life? And all terrestrial and aquatic animal life? Will runaway heating (clatrate gun [6], etc.) be capable of achieving any of these?
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[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age "Earth is currently in the ice age called Quaternary glaciation."
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation "To geologists, an ice age is defined by the presence of large amounts of land-based ice." (So my question in terms of heating and time - how long until we exit the ice age?)
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous "Mean annual temperatures at the poles during the MKH exceeded 14 °C.", "deep ocean temperatures were as much as 15 to 20 °C (27 to 36 °F) warmer than today's"
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous_Thermal_Maximum "Late Cenomanian sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean were substantially warmer than today (~27-29°C). Turonian equatorial SSTs are conservatively estimated based on δ18O and high pCO2 estimates to have been ~32°C, but may have been as high as 36°C."
[5] https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1081 "During this period, we find sea-surface temperatures exceeding 32 °C at 15°–20° N and averaging 26 °C at ∼53° S. These temperatures substantially exceed modern temperatures at equivalent latitudes,"
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis (truly horrifying)
Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather
#5>If the C3S dataset only currently starts in 1979, how can you then provide temperatures relating to the pre-industrial era?
>In order to relate global mean temperature derived from the C3S dataset (ERA5) to the pre-industrial era, we use the estimate that the 1981-2010 reference period is approximately 0.69°C and that the 1991-2020 reference period is approximately 0.88°C warmer than the period 1850-1900, the time period typically referred to as the pre-industrial level for temperatures by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
>Note that these estimates were updated during Autumn 2021, due to new findings published in AR6 WGI report “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis”. See more here under “Reference periods and anomalies”.
I’m sure this is all fine and valid, but they really need to work on their messaging. To a skeptic, this is gonna sound a lot like “oh yeah we pretty much just made the numbers up.”
Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather
#6We're technically still in an ice age [1]. How far does this need to go to reach the end of that ice age [2]? The Cretaceous period was over ten degrees warmer than our current period [3,4,5]. It supported a lot (though much different) biodiversity. How long would it take us to push into these temperature ranges? And how long to exceed them? How much species diversity will we lose at each half degree increment from t…
I think it’s an ice age while any point on earth (not counting mountains etc.) has year-round ice. We’ll be in serious trouble long before that changes.
Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather
#7> It was the hottest August on record – by a large margin – and the second hottest ever month after July 2023, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA 5 dataset. August as a whole is estimated to have been around 1.5°C warmer than the preindustrial average for 1850-1900, according to the C3S monthly climate bulletin.
Thinking about getting to 1.5 C averaged over the planet is surreal and we are still 30 years out from the promised "net zero". We have some tough times ahead of us.
Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather
#8We're technically still in an ice age [1]. How far does this need to go to reach the end of that ice age [2]? The Cretaceous period was over ten degrees warmer than our current period [3,4,5]. It supported a lot (though much different) biodiversity. How long would it take us to push into these temperature ranges? And how long to exceed them? How much species diversity will we lose at each half degree increment from t…
What is your source for saying that we're in an ice age? And do you mean ten degrees C or F?
Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather
#9The conspiracy-minded part of me really wants to link this year to the sulfur reductions in ship emissions kicking in this year. The fact that there's basically only one person really trumpeting this in a way kind of indistinguishable from things I know are false is hard though.
Hank Green pointing out that we could just spray water into the air to get the same effect (and avoid the whole "sulfur" thing in general) gives me a modicum of hope. But If it's all true I just have so many doubts in being able to act on this nicely. How would you even police giant ships to make sure they keep the "water spraying gun" running all the time?
Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather
#10We're technically still in an ice age [1]. How far does this need to go to reach the end of that ice age [2]? The Cretaceous period was over ten degrees warmer than our current period [3,4,5]. It supported a lot (though much different) biodiversity. How long would it take us to push into these temperature ranges? And how long to exceed them? How much species diversity will we lose at each half degree increment from t…
I think it’s an ice age while any point on earth (not counting mountains etc.) has year-round ice. We’ll be in serious trouble long before that changes.
As I understand it, there was no glacial ice on earth during the Cretaceous. Water covered much more of the earth's surface. There were lots of dinosaurs, insects, and other biodiversity that thrived during this time.
Our current biodiversity evolved to fit cooler temperatures, obviously, so the quick change is a huge fitness gradient challenge that many species will not overcome. And in certain food webs, it may result in much larger scale collapse.