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TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months

theregister.com

11–20 of 107 posts

Re: TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months

#11
post #6

Time to open source the chip making industry... ... ... This whole fabrication thing is a biiig chokepoint.

Isn't the cost of the equipment and sophistication required to operate the biggest barrier to entry? How would open sourcing change that?

It wouldn't. HN lives in a SW bubble where Foss is the solution to everything , but fails to see that capital is the main barrier in the semi industry and, unlike their Node library, the secret sauce of cutting edge chips is a matter of national security at this point and will be kept as close to the chest as possible.

Re: TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months

#12
post #9

Time to open source the chip making industry... ... ... This whole fabrication thing is a biiig chokepoint.

Read Chip Wars [1]. The cost to stand up an advanced chip fab has reached tens of billions of dollars. It’s so capital intensive that even the US Department of Defense has exited the game. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chip_War:_The_Fight_for_the_...

I’ve read it, and I agree with you 100%. Open sourcing won’t don’t anything with an ASML machine costs $300,000,000.

Open sourcing software works because some many people already have the hardware (a computer)

Re: TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months

#13
Note that the shortage now is different than the past few years: it is not in fabricating any of the primary chips, it is entirely attributed to insufficient capacity in TSMC’s CoWoS packaging. This is only used for the highest-end accelerator products that use HBM (and a few other things that use full silicon interposers like Apple’s M-Ultras), they are scaling capacity, and there are increasing numbers of alternatives from other packaging vendors that chip designers could use if they had known TSMC’s packaging would be a bottleneck. Demand spiked a lot all of a sudden, and it just takes time to build factories – there are no obvious constraints.

Re: TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months

#15

I wonder how this will impact consumer gpus? If nvidia can print money making h100's you have to wonder if they will continue to invest on the retail side or if they'll funnel most of their efforts to server and let desktop parts languish.

They're selling consumer GPUs with huge margins too. The markup on the 40xx series is insane but they're still shipping a ton of units.

Re: TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months

#17
post #13

Note that the shortage now is different than the past few years: it is not in fabricating any of the primary chips, it is entirely attributed to insufficient capacity in TSMC’s CoWoS packaging. This is only used for the highest-end accelerator products that use HBM (and a few other things that use full silicon interposers like Apple’s M-Ultras), they are scaling capacity, and there are increasing numbers of alternati…

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Re: TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months

#18
post #13

Note that the shortage now is different than the past few years: it is not in fabricating any of the primary chips, it is entirely attributed to insufficient capacity in TSMC’s CoWoS packaging. This is only used for the highest-end accelerator products that use HBM (and a few other things that use full silicon interposers like Apple’s M-Ultras), they are scaling capacity, and there are increasing numbers of alternati…

[deleted]

Re: TSMC warns AI chip crunch will last another 18 months

#19
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the cost of the equipment and sophistication required to operate the biggest barrier to entry? How would open sourcing change that?

It wouldn't. HN lives in a SW bubble where Foss is the solution to everything , but fails to see that capital is the main barrier in the semi industry and, unlike their Node library, the secret sauce of cutting edge chips is a matter of national security at this point and will be kept as close to the chest as possible.

Actually if the IC design tools would be FOSS, the cost of new designs would decrease considerably, even up to two times.

The cost of the subscriptions to the design tools provided by Cadence, Synopsis, Siemens (Mentor) and a few others is ridiculously high and it can contribute with many millions of $ to the design cost of a state-of-the-art chip.

The design tools themselves have been improved extremely slowly and they are of a quite low quality for so expensive professional tools. In an open-source environment it would be easy to make much better alternatives.

The reason that only a few timid attempts exist to provide alternatives for only some parts of a complete toolchain, is that the semiconductor manufacturers, like TSMC, do not provide public information about the exact data that they need as input for manufacturing, about the design rules that must be implemented for valid designs and about the characteristics of their processes that must be known for simulations.

All this information is available only to big companies like Synopsis, Cadence etc. and this perpetuates their monopoly and their ability of extracting huge amounts of money with minimal software development work, from all the companies that design ICs.

While the companies that design ICs are not happy for this huge rent that they pay for the design tools, they are also extremely risk-averse and they do not want to make any change in their design workflows, no matter how small, that might increase the risks of failure in a designed chip. Because of this there are no chances of replacing the incumbents with open-source tools, at least not in the big established companies that design chips.

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