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Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

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Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#151

Post by kentonv »

bluGill wrote: post #139
xwdv wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well that’s it then. I will startup a small crypto mining company, threaten to mine bitcoin and get paid out not to.

You have to make a creditable threat first. My guess is even though bit being paid not to mine bitcoin is where the money is, they would still lose money overall if they didn't mine bitcoin at the time when they were not paid to not use power. That is you need to buy servers and keep them functional in order to get the subsidy. The subsidy isn't enough pay for the servers on its own. Probably bitcoin itself doesn't p…

The payments are described as "credits" which I assume means they only offset future power purchases; ERCOT doesn't actually give you cash. So you do have to have some sort of machine that converts power into money to take advantage of it.

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#152

Post by dpkirchner »

LispSporks22 wrote: post #130
HumblyTossed wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So... start a "cryptocurrency" business and get paid to not use electricity. I mean, if that's not a good way to funnel money from the lower classes to the rich, I don't know what is.

I am curious what it takes to get this sweet deal. Surely anyone can join in the mining and get paid to do nothing on the wonky Texas grid and when you can run - deliver nothing of positive value to society. Does one need a minimum number of rigs? Maybe a permit? Just apply to the utility? I’d rather be paid than volunteer to sit around in the dark, sweating like a chump.

You probably need to start out by wining and dining folks at the Texas Railroad Commission.

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#153

Post by vel0city »

gcr wrote: post #131
bombcar wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The demand is there, the building is there, but if you overbuild you can get screwed very hard, so the power companies have (very complex, mind you) models that they use to determine if a plant will make sense to bring online. Those models may have been wrong, or based on assumptions about temperatures that turned out incorrect.

From the incentives, having blackouts is more financially desirable than overbuilding. This situation isn’t surprising. It sucks if you’re like, you know, a person living there, but in terms of finance incentives, it’s close to the best possible outcome, right?

I'm a person living there, haven't had any blackouts for a few years, and pay $0.10/kWh for electricity. What part sucks again?

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#154

Post by hindsightbias »

kaibee wrote: post #50
actionfromafar wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I have to set up shop in Texas with some space heaters and claim my bitcoin energy credits!

>“His specialty was alfalfa, and he made a good thing out of not growing any. The government paid him well for every bushel of alfalfa he did not grow. The more alfalfa he did not grow, the more money the government gave him, and he spent every penny he didn't earn on new land to increase the amount of alfalfa he did not produce. Major Major's father worked without rest at not growing alfalfa. On long winter evenings…

“His specialty was crypto, and he made a good thing out of not mining any. The government paid him well for every coin of crypto he did not mine. The more crypto he did not mine, the more money the government gave him, and he spent every penny he didn't earn on new servers to increase the amount of crypto he did not produce. Major Major's father worked without rest at not mining crypto. On long winter evenings he remained indoors and did not mend cable ties, and he sprang out of bed at the crack of noon every day just to make certain that the admin would not be done. He invested in datacenters wisely and soon was not mining more crypto than any other man in the county. Neighbours sought him out for advice on all subjects, for he had made much money and was therefore wise. “As ye sow, so shall ye reap,” he counselled one and all, and everyone said “KK.”

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#155

Post by supertrope »

Beached wrote: post #118
tr3ntg wrote: post #110

I live in Texas and we’ve been dancing on the edge of energy availability for weeks now. If you glance at ERCOT’s public graphs that estimate energy supply and demand, every evening we’re barely eeking by. From what I’ve heard, this should be improving daily as temperatures ease, but I guess not. Surprising that we had an emergency episode in September rather than two weeks ago. If Texas can’t supply enough energy in…

I feel like TX is doing more to push for energy independence than any other single organization in the country. the grid incompetence, and governments unwillingness to resolve, is the best driver for household battery and solar I can this of. I don't live in TX, but if I didn't have 1day battery storage, coupled with solar capability to charge that battery to full in a single day, with a generator as backup, every ou…

Most people can’t afford to spend tens of thousands of dollars on an off grid capable battery and solar setup.

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#156

Post by actionfromafar »

4567546 wrote: post #72
actionfromafar wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I have to set up shop in Texas with some space heaters and claim my bitcoin energy credits!

Unfortunately not how it works. The reason that Texas is paying miners to load shed is because they are being paid to supply a constant load to the grid. They shut down in order to dump capacity into the grid because that is less expensive than attempting to bring new capacity online to meet demand and then later bring that capacity back down when it is no longer needed. Because of the way miners can ramp up and down…

This only makes sense with the unstated premise that the state is helpless to regulate the market with its own set of incentives.

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#157

Post by pjc50 »

kentonv wrote: post #133
Retric wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You achieve similar results by simply charging such customers current market rates. Nobody is going to be mining Bitcoin while paying 2.50$/kWh. That’s the objection, it’s simply a waste of money.

It's so weird because I thought the whole point of ERCOT was to be a market and use market forces to solve everything. So why are they paying bitcoin miners to turn off, rather than just charging them market rates at all times and letting them decide for themselves? I feel like I'm missing something here.

Electricity markets are not just spot prices. There's sub-markets for being available to respond to emergencies.

The UK system: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/industry-information/balanci...

It seems you'd be eligible for "quick reserve" if you could turn on or off >1MW of response within one minute. Ideal for batteries. Includes a "standby" fee paid hourly to cover having the system "armed".

(It seems unlikely that either the bitcoin operation or their electricity meter could manage sub-minute response times to changes in prices alone? I'm not exactly sure how metering and payment works at grid level and how granular it is)

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#158

Post by wc- »

gcr wrote: post #141
wc- wrote: post #26

There's a lot of misunderstanding in the comments so far regarding bitcoin mining incentives. I urge you to read this thread describing the split-second load-shedding response time from the POV of one of these miners: https://twitter.com/ogbtc/status/1699588007664275873 It also goes into the other mechanism by which they make money (being natural sellers of future energy demand contracts during times of high demand).…

Alternatively, a better option: as a human need, maybe energy production shouldn’t _strictly_ follow market incentives and shouldn’t be _solely_ governed by supply/demand dynamics

Totally agree! But this isn't the reality we live in today and you have proposed a potentially better option with no ideas on how to achieve it. What you need to focus on is how we can grow a better grid while achieving prepaid usage levels, guaranteed usage levels, and on-demand response. These factors are what lead to a more efficient, more climate friendly, more better etc etc grid.

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#159

Post by actionfromafar »

gcr wrote: post #112
4567546 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately not how it works. The reason that Texas is paying miners to load shed is because they are being paid to supply a constant load to the grid. They shut down in order to dump capacity into the grid because that is less expensive than attempting to bring new capacity online to meet demand and then later bring that capacity back down when it is no longer needed. Because of the way miners can ramp up and down…

even with incentives, it’s still cash-negative for the miners to buy electricity from ERCOT though, right?

In that vein, I’m more interested in what Crusoe Energy is doing. They started out with Bitcoin mining at “energy island” locations. Now they are setting up AI data centres at such sites.

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#160

Post by tr3ntg »

gcr wrote: post #131
bombcar wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The demand is there, the building is there, but if you overbuild you can get screwed very hard, so the power companies have (very complex, mind you) models that they use to determine if a plant will make sense to bring online. Those models may have been wrong, or based on assumptions about temperatures that turned out incorrect.

From the incentives, having blackouts is more financially desirable than overbuilding. This situation isn’t surprising. It sucks if you’re like, you know, a person living there, but in terms of finance incentives, it’s close to the best possible outcome, right?

replying to my sibling commentor, vel0city:

My neighborhood has had dozens of outages over the past few years, the worst of which was nearly a week-long outage during the now-infamous freeze.

So yeah, energy is cheap, but same areas are hit harder than others in terms of reliability.

The energy company’s reasoning for these dozens of small blackouts is “grid upgrades” - that’d be great if true, but who really knows.

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