Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

noahpinion.blog

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

241–250 of 252 posts

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#241

Post by whats_a_quasar »

pphysch wrote: post #222
corethree wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those two countries aren't on the verge of taking away the economic and technological dominance away from the US. Therefore psychologically and in terms of US foreign policy, those countries are more allied to the US then China. It's not black and white. It lives on a gradient.

You are either in an alliance, or you are not. You are either an ally, or you are not. It is a binary classification. The entire point of formal alliances is that they are sworn, binding guarantees that can be relied on, not wishy-washy resolutions.

I actually mostly agree with you! Ally has a formal meaning and usually means a mutual defense pact. I was using "ally" informally, to refer to countries that are roughly in the U.S. camp.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#242

Post by hakfoo »

Lio wrote: post #227
hakfoo wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they really knew what was best for everyone it would be obvious and people would vote for them. I'm not sure most-- or even any-- people really know what's best for everyone . It gets even more complex when it turns into what's best for one group versus another, or what's best for today comes at a cost to be paid in 5-10-20 years. It's easy to catapult yourself into office by promising people ice cream instead o…

What makes you think the despot will tell you to eat broccoli? What if he just built a vanity project trans-fat factory and doesn’t want to loose face, so insists everyone must eat cheap trans-fats? What if the autocrat decides to block access to a free-press and to jail anyone that dares to say ice cream makes you fat? We can play what if scenarios all day but end result is always the same. In an dictatorship you ca…

I guess that's the opposite side of the coin I'm looking at. Being able to remove "bad actors" also means it's too easy to remove "good actors" who might brush people the wrong way. Democratic leadership will optimize for easy answers and never saying "no", because the alternative is political suicide.

Imagine if Joe Biden went on TV tomorrow and said "we're taxing gasoline to USD100 per gallon to force private cars off the road. It's gonna be tough for a while, but you'll thank me in 2050 when the public transit is fully fleshed out and we hit a 1.5c climate goal." He'd be driven out of office in favour of someone who ran on a campaign of "let's roast the next generation so you can save a dime at the pump today." OTOH, Xi Jinping could probably get away with it.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#243

Post by nradov »

EGreg wrote: post #239
nradov wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what? None of that is really relevant to global trade, or the currencies used to settle such trades. Nor does it make Russia, India, and China likely to cooperate. Regardless of what the USA might have done years ago, the interests of the major BRICS members aren't aligned today.

Why do you think it's "years ago"? It's scarcely a year since USA left Afghanistan ending a 20-year occupation. Trump refused to leave Iraq despite its government unaniously voting for USA to leave: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iraq-asks-u... In Yemen, the US-led airstrikes have bombed hospitals, markets, etc. as recently as a couple years ago, leading to the largest humanitarian disaster in the w…

So what? India and China aren't going to work together to counter the financial dominance of the US dollar, World Bank, and IMF. They can't agree on anything. The rest of the BRICS are too poor and weak to matter.

There are plenty of legitimate criticisms of US interventionist foreign policy, but that is largely irrelevant to the global trading system. Money talks, and most of the countries with money (or goods worth trading) are at zero risk of a US invasion.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#244

Post by jpgvm »

orbital-decay wrote: post #189
diego_moita wrote: post #26

Funny how things change. In the 90s the U.S., EU and Japan were the champions of free trade for industrial products and services. However, when it would come to agricultural goods they were the champions of tariffs and protectionism. Why? Easy: because 3rd world countries were very competitive on agriculture. Egypt had better cotton, Argentina had beef, Brazil had orange juice, Cuba had sugar, etc, etc. 3rd world cou…

Good thing you mentioned Japan. It was a huge competitor to the US in 80s and 90s in industrial products, yet nobody considered restricting the trade with it.

Plaza Accord -> Louvre Accord.

The Japanese real estate bubble was directly caused by the former and the latter put the nail in the coffin by massively tightening the Japanese economy, bursting the huge debt bubble and robbing the BOJ of any and all tools to try contain the explosion.

US architected Japan's downfall and there was nothing Japan could do because they weren't allowed to have their own guns anymore so couldn't stand up for themselves and refuse to sign/implement aforementioned accords.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#245

Post by jpgvm »

dgb23 wrote: post #25
EGreg wrote: post #18

If there’s one broad consensus in American policymaking circles today, it’s that global supply chains need to become less dependent on China. I agree, and the other way, in many BRICS and other countries, there is a broad consensus that global economies need to become less dependent on US Dollars. Both efforts at decentralization and lessening concentration of power are probably going to lead to new good results, as…

What's the rationale behind this? Why specifically China?

Because Americans need a bad guy for their political system to function.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#246

Post by somenameforme »

nradov wrote: post #243
EGreg wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think it's "years ago"? It's scarcely a year since USA left Afghanistan ending a 20-year occupation. Trump refused to leave Iraq despite its government unaniously voting for USA to leave: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iraq-asks-u... In Yemen, the US-led airstrikes have bombed hospitals, markets, etc. as recently as a couple years ago, leading to the largest humanitarian disaster in the w…

So what? India and China aren't going to work together to counter the financial dominance of the US dollar, World Bank, and IMF. They can't agree on anything. The rest of the BRICS are too poor and weak to matter. There are plenty of legitimate criticisms of US interventionist foreign policy, but that is largely irrelevant to the global trading system. Money talks, and most of the countries with money (or goods worth…

They already are. And calling the rest of BRICS poor and weak is just overt trolling, but also a probably an indicator of a more genuine misunderstanding of how trade and 'globalism' more generally actually works. For instance Niger most certainly is not a wealthy country, but the 'West' in general is having a fit about the coup there (and getting ready to start yet another war over it) is because in spite of being a small, deeply impoverished nation - they supply something like 25% of all of the EU's uranium needs, at rock bottom costs - in an echo of colonial times.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#247

Post by Lio »

hakfoo wrote: post #242
Lio wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think the despot will tell you to eat broccoli? What if he just built a vanity project trans-fat factory and doesn’t want to loose face, so insists everyone must eat cheap trans-fats? What if the autocrat decides to block access to a free-press and to jail anyone that dares to say ice cream makes you fat? We can play what if scenarios all day but end result is always the same. In an dictatorship you ca…

I guess that's the opposite side of the coin I'm looking at. Being able to remove "bad actors" also means it's too easy to remove "good actors" who might brush people the wrong way. Democratic leadership will optimize for easy answers and never saying "no", because the alternative is political suicide. Imagine if Joe Biden went on TV tomorrow and said "we're taxing gasoline to USD100 per gallon to force private cars…

This sounds like Stockholm Syndrome.

Xi isn't enacting enlightened laws to protect the environment. Quite the opposite. He's opening more and more coal fired power stations. He doesn't care if the rivers overflow.

You're saying "but he could do good", he won't. Dictators never do.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#248

Post by nradov »

somenameforme wrote: post #246
nradov wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what? India and China aren't going to work together to counter the financial dominance of the US dollar, World Bank, and IMF. They can't agree on anything. The rest of the BRICS are too poor and weak to matter. There are plenty of legitimate criticisms of US interventionist foreign policy, but that is largely irrelevant to the global trading system. Money talks, and most of the countries with money (or goods worth…

They already are. And calling the rest of BRICS poor and weak is just overt trolling, but also a probably an indicator of a more genuine misunderstanding of how trade and 'globalism' more generally actually works. For instance Niger most certainly is not a wealthy country, but the 'West' in general is having a fit about the coup there (and getting ready to start yet another war over it) is because in spite of being a…

The only BRICS members with both large and growing economies and militaries are India and China. Calling the others poor and weak isn't trolling, it's just an objective statement of reality.

As for Niger, it's not a member of that bloc nor has it even been invited to join. Regardless of how much uranium they export, they will never have any influence over the international financial and trade settlement system. So, I don't know why you would even bring that up.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#249

Post by somenameforme »

nradov wrote: post #248
somenameforme wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already are. And calling the rest of BRICS poor and weak is just overt trolling, but also a probably an indicator of a more genuine misunderstanding of how trade and 'globalism' more generally actually works. For instance Niger most certainly is not a wealthy country, but the 'West' in general is having a fit about the coup there (and getting ready to start yet another war over it) is because in spite of being a…

The only BRICS members with both large and growing economies and militaries are India and China. Calling the others poor and weak isn't trolling, it's just an objective statement of reality. As for Niger, it's not a member of that bloc nor has it even been invited to join. Regardless of how much uranium they export, they will never have any influence over the international financial and trade settlement system. So, I…

I mention Niger both because of your apparent belief that the things we're talking about only happened in the past, and because they're a perfect example of the goal of BRICS. Right now most countries in the world have limited sovereignty. They can do whatever they feel like, right up to the point that it runs contrary to Western interests. But as soon as they cross that line it's time for the old tired playbook of death and destruction: coups, color revolutions, weaponizing "international" organizations, sanctions, outright invasion, funding/training 'moderate radicals', and so on.

BRICS is not about cooperation, but rather about allowing each independent country to fully pursue their own self interest. Right now that's not really possible when relying on economic systems controlled by the US. So we're seeing a gradual shift on the currencies countries hold, US debt holdings, the development of e.g. SWIFT alternatives like SPFS, and so on. The development of a common currency will be the next logical step.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#250

Post by kwere »

xwolfi wrote: post #88
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is all about dependency trees. The US decides to divert imports from China to other countries, which in turn may import from China. This is already happening with more than ~80% of products that are "Made in Vietnam" and at least ~40% of products that are "Made in Korea." Not only do the raw materials come from China, but most of the work is done in China. The product is shipped overland from a Chinese factory t…

I'm in China, and I think you're wrong. The situation is absolutely catastrophic and we're slowly falling down the cliff. Those GDP numbers are BS, in the US, France or China, since they count public spending. Anyone can build ghost cities for billions, add it to GDP and show a growth of GDP: meant nothing more than a big dick number. Truth is when they ask a random dude on TV if he's ok with drinking Japanese radioa…

>our own homes

our leased (up to 70 years) homes

Post reply on HN