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Paul Graham has lost the plot

mishandrob.com

211–220 of 302 posts

Re: Paul Graham has lost the plot

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the reason they don't steal cars is consequence Are you saying that 46% of US citizens* would steal a car if it was consequence free? Because I'd like to see some evidence of that. * The number who have said to have committed copyright infringement.

Yes, I am absolutely stating that if you asked the "average American" whether or not they would steal cars if there were no consequences (financial, legal or moral) they would absolutely say "Yes, I would have no problems stealing a car". Another way to ask the question is to say "What are the consequences of stealing a car from your neighbour?" and I would say the answers would be "Legal (theft), moral (I have taken…

Oh, I didn't think you were including moral consequences.

Then the questions I have are; why is copyright infringement free from moral consequences while car stealing isn't?

Re: Paul Graham has lost the plot

#213
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that nobody stops you from making "Open-Source" films and music, and many people do. The masses however seem to prefer commercial films, music and software.

Just to supplement another response to this point... commercial entertainment does compete directly with free/amateur/semipro/fansourced material all the time. I would argue that this is more of a danger to Big Content's bottom line. There are only 24 hours in a day. Youtube and reddit compete directly with Universal, Sony, and the New York Times for people's attention. The fact is that entertaining videos and music…

Thank you for your excellent expansion of my point. I wager that they either haven't identified the boulder rushing down at them...

...or are trying to win the piracy/IP battle enough that it gives them a credible position from which to attack the populist works that remix what they perceive to be their IP.

Especially if, for example, they've succeeded in making faceless/nameless/processless takedowns possible--a pretty solid weapon against populist entertainment.

Re: Paul Graham has lost the plot

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the reason they don't steal cars is consequence Are you saying that 46% of US citizens* would steal a car if it was consequence free? Because I'd like to see some evidence of that. * The number who have said to have committed copyright infringement.

Absolutely they would. Similarly, an even greater majority of American drivers will disobey road safety laws (most commonly the speed limit) which are statistically shown to mitigate traffic fatalities. In other words, they will buy a ticket to a lottery of potentially killing other human beings solely to increase the perception that they're getting to their destination faster. And why? Mostly, because it's easy and…

> Absolutely they would.

That's still just an assertion.

> an even greater majority of American drivers will disobey road safety laws (most commonly the speed limit) which are statistically shown to mitigate traffic fatalities.

And that's far from obvious, actually, especially when it comes to speed limits which you single out. See for example this analysis from the Cato Institute:

> Despite the fact that 33 states raised their speed limits immediately after the repeal of the mandatory federal speed limit, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reported last October that "the traffic death rate dropped to a record low level in 1997." Moreover, the average fatality rate even fell in the states that raised their speed limits.

http://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/speed-doesn...

Re: Paul Graham has lost the plot

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the reason they don't steal cars is consequence Are you saying that 46% of US citizens* would steal a car if it was consequence free? Because I'd like to see some evidence of that. * The number who have said to have committed copyright infringement.

Absolutely they would. Similarly, an even greater majority of American drivers will disobey road safety laws (most commonly the speed limit) which are statistically shown to mitigate traffic fatalities. In other words, they will buy a ticket to a lottery of potentially killing other human beings solely to increase the perception that they're getting to their destination faster. And why? Mostly, because it's easy and…

"Everyone does it" is an important consideration, if only because making regular people into criminals erodes general respect for the rule of law. "Everyone does it" won't outweigh every harm, but it surely outweighs some.

Re: Paul Graham has lost the plot

#216
I think pg is spot on. Record companies make money on distribution. They are no longer needed. Artist always have made more money on live concerts, with a few notable exceptions. The thing record companies are trying to hold on to is controlling distribution, because if artists realize they don't need a record company, record companies will cease to exist.

Re: Paul Graham has lost the plot

#217
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question is not whether there is a right to make a profit but whether there is a right to pursue a profit. Free, instantaneous distribution of all music as soon as it is produced (an exaggeration of torrents, but not by much) seems to take away the right to pursue a profit, at least profit by distribution of recordings. Or perhaps there is no right to pursue profit by distribution. Perhaps there is only a right t…

I'm saying it's not a 'right' to expect profit from something. The right to pursue a profit exists as long as the law of the land allows it. Markets already provide a "pay-what-you-want" model, it just happens that not everyone is willing to accept what you want to pay. Selling capital goods is very different than selling digital copies of something. There is a limited amount of corn in the world, you can purchase it…

Except Apple is a bunch of creative people. So is Kurzweil and O'Reilly and, heck, even Starbucks.

Markets are not pay-what-you-want, because pay-what-you-want implies $0 is an acceptable price. At least that's how I was using the term. Apple will not accept $0 for an iPad. If you don't accept their price, you don't get the iPad. That's why people buy it.

Copying media lets you get it even if you don't accept the price. Which means the only reason to pay is because you want to.

My contention is that making people pay in order to enjoy a product is often what provides the money necessary to exercise creativity. The iPad could be improved by an individual working alone with their own funds, but it never could have been created that way. Without profits from previous products, the creative people at Apple who designed the iPad never would have had the resources to do so. We have iPads today precisely because Apple is closed.

What is the next innovation in personal computing? Who will come up with it? Will it be Apple or someone on Kickstarter? My money is on Apple. Even if it is someone on Kickstarter, will they be able to raise the probably millions of dollars necessary to make a viable consumer product? Unlikely.

A system in which producers pay upfront and then recoup costs is actually better for consumers. You get to see the finished product before deciding whether or not to spend your money. If the finished product sucks, only the producer loses. If the finished product of a Kickstarter project sucks, everyone who contributed loses.

How many iterations do you think it took Apple to perfect the iPad? Each of those would have to have been separately funded on Kickstarter for that system to produce the iPad. I doubt even the costs of one iteration could be raised.

But when you cut off the ability to recoup production costs, you cut off the incentive to pay upfront production costs. Which cuts off the funding to creative people who are doing important work.

The problem with only being able to collect voluntary payments (pay-what-you-want, Kickstarter, etc.) is that people don't necessary know they want something until it's done. The 1st iteration iPad probably sucked. So why would people fund it? If Apple builds an iPad, it only takes a few people's shared vision to make it happen. If a Kickstarter project wants to build something as innovative, it will required the shared vision of everyone contributing. You'll have to convince thousands of people that it's worth funding numerous iterations at thousands, or possibly even millions, of dollars, in the hopes that the final product will be good. I just don't see this happening.

Re: Paul Graham has lost the plot

#218

The author, and the content industry in general, are misunderstanding basic economics: Just because there is a cost to produce something does not mean that it has market value . pg was right in pointing out that the content industry is built on the economics of scarcity, and that this scarcity no longer exists. You could charge someone to see a movie in a theatre when doing so was the only way to see the movie. You c…

And you're misunderstanding economics too. Just because you can get it for free that does not mean there is no market for people paying for it. > Just because there is a cost to produce something does not mean that it has market value. What shows market value is the desire for that product. The only reason that music is pirated now (when it used to be purchased) is because it's easy and without consequence. Let's say…

> What shows market value is the desire for that product.

I disagree with this completely. There's a tremendous desire for oxygen. Literally every human being needs it nearly every second of their life. However, it has no market value because it's freely available wherever you go. You're basically saying that price should be determined solely by demand, regardless of supply. You're ignoring fully half of economic theory.

Yes, there is a huge demand for digital copies of music and video, but there's also an infinite supply of them.

Re: Paul Graham has lost the plot

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the reason they don't steal cars is consequence Are you saying that 46% of US citizens* would steal a car if it was consequence free? Because I'd like to see some evidence of that. * The number who have said to have committed copyright infringement.

Absolutely they would. Similarly, an even greater majority of American drivers will disobey road safety laws (most commonly the speed limit) which are statistically shown to mitigate traffic fatalities. In other words, they will buy a ticket to a lottery of potentially killing other human beings solely to increase the perception that they're getting to their destination faster. And why? Mostly, because it's easy and…

Similarly, an even greater majority of American drivers will disobey road safety laws (most commonly the speed limit) which are statistically shown to mitigate traffic fatalities. In other words, they will buy a ticket to a lottery of potentially killing other human beings solely to increase the perception that they're getting to their destination faster. And why? Mostly, because it's easy and there's rarely consequences.

But stealing a car always has consequences: someone has one car less. Saying that people would steal cars if the stolen cars didn't disappear from their owners is illogical.

On the other hand, disobeying road safety laws doesn't in fact have consequences most of the time: people rarely get hurt. And it has been demonstrated that people are terrible at evaluating odds. So the situation is far from analogous.

"Everyone does it, so it shouldn't be illegal" is --- and this is so obvious I don't even have to provide the most vivid examples --- historically a very dumb argument.

It's not my argument. I was just questioning parent's claim about stealing cars.

Re: Paul Graham has lost the plot

#220

The author, and the content industry in general, are misunderstanding basic economics: Just because there is a cost to produce something does not mean that it has market value . pg was right in pointing out that the content industry is built on the economics of scarcity, and that this scarcity no longer exists. You could charge someone to see a movie in a theatre when doing so was the only way to see the movie. You c…

And you're misunderstanding economics too. Just because you can get it for free that does not mean there is no market for people paying for it. > Just because there is a cost to produce something does not mean that it has market value. What shows market value is the desire for that product. The only reason that music is pirated now (when it used to be purchased) is because it's easy and without consequence. Let's say…

The free market is meant to make prices as low as possible, not as high as possible. That is why we have laws against monopolies and encourage competition. The argument that things should cost as much as people will pay for them is a pleasant fallacy of a businessman.
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