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Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

theregister.com

41–50 of 93 posts

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#41
This didn't age well now, did it?

I myself was quite hesitant about touchscreens back in the day, when I was debating whether I should buy myself a Motorola Milestone (Android 2.1) after seeing a HTC Dream at work, or whether to get a BlackBerry Storm (with the tactile screen) since I wasn't sure how good a touchscreen will be or even if Android will survive.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#42

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

It's hard to overstate just how big of a leap the iPhone was. Critics only focused on the shortcomings but neglected to see what it really was. Steve Jobs Introducing at Macworld in 2007 is a classic for the ages. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQKMoT-6XSg

I remember a lot of tech reporters were quick to mock the iPhone for not supporting a feature they all took for granted: copy and paste.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#43
post #25

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

It was a lot less of a paradigm shift at the time than it seems like in hindsight, actually. In fact there were competing phones with Windows Mobile or Symbian that did have similar hardware specs. (Really if you have to pick the single defining hardware innovation of the iPhone, it was the full slate capacitative touchscreen.) And in some areas the iPhone was clearly behind, shipping with a EDGE-only radio at a time…

The iPhone was a software innovation that was years ahead of the industry at the time, enabled by that one hardware innovation that you’re sounding rather dismissive of.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#44
> Some have suggested that Apple will simply set up their own Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) and just fund the subsidy…

I was one who believed this up until the announcement. I grossly underestimated Jobs’ ability to negotiate/strong arm the carriers, who were and remain one of those industries who fear and proactively hate their customers.

(Side point: I accidentally typed “nagotiate” which was autocorrected but surely is a word every parent could use)

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I once read an interview with Anssi Vanjoki, who was one of the top executives at Nokia. He said indeed that when he first held an iPhone he knew it was over for Nokia. If I remember correctly, Nokia had good tech for smart phones, but no vision or courage to drive the market in that direction. It was not a well-managed company.

People have often indicated we would have consolidated on iPhone-like devices in Apple’s absence, but I’m not convinced. Apple was unique: they were willing to bet the company on a single form factor, they had a small but loyal and vocal fan base, and they had their own retail stores to give people the opportunity to experience the phone. Anyone else would have made it just one of a half dozen phones and it would hav…

Read up on handspring.

Their phone was the full modern smartphone years before the iphone. They're the ones who met with Larry Page and got him to make a mobile version of Google.com.

Jobs met with handspring back when apple was focused on the mac PC. Jobs stood up at the whiteboard and drew a mac with all the aspects of a person's life around it. Handspring's CEO or CTO stood up and drew a handspring phone and all the same photos, music, www, etc around it. "Except you'll carry this with you everywhere you go." It was at that moment jobs realized he needed to build a phone and what it needed to look like.

Thing is, while handspring got there ~5 years before jobs did, they didn't have anything to leverage. They were a small startup and completely at the mercy of the telco carriers with their existing cellular subscribers, who then proceeded to force changes to the interface and apps. Handspring actually had to risk it all on their vision of what a phone should be.

Jobs had a healthy apple with a healthy mac computer lineup and billions in the bank. When apple went to the telcos all jobs had to do was ask "do you want access to our millions of ipod users?" and he got his way. Handed the concept and executed with essentially zero risk.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#46
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to overstate just how big of a leap the iPhone was. Critics only focused on the shortcomings but neglected to see what it really was. Steve Jobs Introducing at Macworld in 2007 is a classic for the ages. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQKMoT-6XSg

I remember a lot of tech reporters were quick to mock the iPhone for not supporting a feature they all took for granted: copy and paste.

3g and wifi hotspot were another two big ones (edit: that made me stick with the somewhat ridiculous htc/windows i was using) iirc

*edit: i say ridiculous as the iphone still made it look totally crap

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#47
post #11

Read the article before jumping into roasting. The author is NOT criticizing iPhone - he's skeptical simply because, at the time, network operators dictated which manufacturers enter the mobile phone market or not. It was a highly controlled market, and Apple not only had to build a great phone, but also had to punch through that stupid business barrier. In the end, Apple did make it.

That's only partly true. He said: > As customers start to realise that the competition offers better functionality at a lower price, by negotiating a better subsidy, sales will stagnate. After a year a new version will be launched, but it will lack the innovation of the first and quickly vanish.

He's still on the same line - network operators will kill the innovation what-so-ever.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#48
post #25

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

It was a lot less of a paradigm shift at the time than it seems like in hindsight, actually. In fact there were competing phones with Windows Mobile or Symbian that did have similar hardware specs. (Really if you have to pick the single defining hardware innovation of the iPhone, it was the full slate capacitative touchscreen.) And in some areas the iPhone was clearly behind, shipping with a EDGE-only radio at a time…

Jobs was ahead of his time, and he pushed the vision of HTML5 and offline apps. He was resistant to app stores, I suspect, because he wanted maximum freedom for users in the future rather than the corporatized, schlock-filled, freedom restricting, walled garden the post-Jobs Apple brought.

You see his vision as a big miss. I see his vision as evidence of good taste and also an eventuality.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#49
post #34

Whew, I'm so happy I've always been right in my predictions, unlike this poor fellow, who has probably been unemployed since this inexcusable prediction failure.

A commenter at the time wrote “Speculation for titillation.” That rightfully deserves scorn and ridicule. It’s relevant 15 years on for those predicting huge failures for nascent ideas and markets—-if you want to make a big statement for the future, back it up. If you predicted that Theranos was a total scam, you’d be vindicated. The jury is still out on Bitcoin, etc.

Well, when you engage in speculation about the future, you're bound to be wrong most of the time. We can have fun now at his lack of insight, but, it's been almost 17 years, so maybe he can be forgiven. We all make mistakes, but if we do it on the internet, it's going to be there forever, thanks to archive.org. So kids, let that be a lesson!

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#50

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

I once read an interview with Anssi Vanjoki, who was one of the top executives at Nokia. He said indeed that when he first held an iPhone he knew it was over for Nokia. If I remember correctly, Nokia had good tech for smart phones, but no vision or courage to drive the market in that direction. It was not a well-managed company.

There was some fancy 6 inch or so Nokia PDA from around that time that was supposed to be amazing. It had all the good hacker features - it ran Linux, it had driver support, you could ssh from it, etc. I remember turning it on and seeing kernel printk logs scrolling, followed by the plain X cross-thatch, and then some home grown window manager where you had to use a stylus to move the mouse cursor to click on stuff. That kinda summed up Nokia for me, developing 80s tech in the 2000s.
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