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Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

theregister.com

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Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#31

Post by bonestamp2 »

macintux wrote: post #17
Veliladon wrote: post #6

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

I don’t recall the precise details, but one of the key Android people was watching the keynote and had that immediate realization: their prototypes had just been obsoleted.

Yep, their prototype was more like a BlackBerry than an iPhone and they immediately had to switch gears and make one like the iPhone instead: https://www.androidpolice.com/first-android-prototype-google...

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#32

Post by bandergirl »

Zealotux wrote: post #9

So how did Apple manage with the issues mentioned in the article? Namely the subsidies to operators.

I think they just demonstrated that buyers would easily drop hundreds of dollars on an Apple product. Steve Ballmer also famously scoffed at the price of the iPhone.[1]

  [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#33

Post by signal11 »

Zealotux wrote: post #9

So how did Apple manage with the issues mentioned in the article? Namely the subsidies to operators.

In the US, they went for exclusivity. You could only buy iPhone on AT&T, and they committed to that for 4 years.

In Europe, people buy phones SIM-free as well, so it wasn’t exclusive, but many networks offered subsidies — undoubtedly because of commercial arrangements.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#34

Post by smugma »

indigoabstract wrote: post #14

Whew, I'm so happy I've always been right in my predictions, unlike this poor fellow, who has probably been unemployed since this inexcusable prediction failure.

A commenter at the time wrote “Speculation for titillation.”

That rightfully deserves scorn and ridicule. It’s relevant 15 years on for those predicting huge failures for nascent ideas and markets—-if you want to make a big statement for the future, back it up.

If you predicted that Theranos was a total scam, you’d be vindicated. The jury is still out on Bitcoin, etc.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#35

Post by macintux »

haunter wrote: post #19
macintux wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t recall the precise details, but one of the key Android people was watching the keynote and had that immediate realization: their prototypes had just been obsoleted.

This was the original Android demo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FJHYqE0RDg

That was a year later IIRC.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#38

Post by bonestamp2 »

zuhsetaqi wrote: post #27
esjeon wrote: post #11

Read the article before jumping into roasting. The author is NOT criticizing iPhone - he's skeptical simply because, at the time, network operators dictated which manufacturers enter the mobile phone market or not. It was a highly controlled market, and Apple not only had to build a great phone, but also had to punch through that stupid business barrier. In the end, Apple did make it.

That's only partly true. He said: > As customers start to realise that the competition offers better functionality at a lower price, by negotiating a better subsidy, sales will stagnate. After a year a new version will be launched, but it will lack the innovation of the first and quickly vanish.

I like the line after that where he wonders if the failure of the iPhone will take the iPod down with it. It's funny that the rampant success of the iPhone is actually what killed the iPod.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#39

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

Veliladon wrote: post #6

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

I remember 2 audience reactions really, really clearly from the original iPhone launch:

1. the reactions to "flick to scroll".

2. reaction to pinch-to-zoom.

In both cases the audience was just gobsmacked: oohs, ahs and cheers all around.

For people saying there were other devices out there at the time with similar or better hardware specs, or even comparable feature sets, I think you are totally missing the point. That kind of comparison is making the same mistake as the infamous "Less space than a Nomad. Lame" Slashdot comment re the iPod. I remember trying out the original iPhone the second day it was on sale, and just being blown away - and I worked in the mobile industry at the time and was well aware of the features of other phones.

The overall experience of the iPhone was just legions ahead of anything else that existed at that time.

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