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Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

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Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#21

Post by Veliladon »

karmakurtisaani wrote: post #16
Veliladon wrote: post #6

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

I once read an interview with Anssi Vanjoki, who was one of the top executives at Nokia. He said indeed that when he first held an iPhone he knew it was over for Nokia. If I remember correctly, Nokia had good tech for smart phones, but no vision or courage to drive the market in that direction. It was not a well-managed company.

That's the problem with being an established market leader. You're so terrified of blowing up your own market that you're afraid to disrupt with innovation.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#22

Post by macintux »

karmakurtisaani wrote: post #16
Veliladon wrote: post #6

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

I once read an interview with Anssi Vanjoki, who was one of the top executives at Nokia. He said indeed that when he first held an iPhone he knew it was over for Nokia. If I remember correctly, Nokia had good tech for smart phones, but no vision or courage to drive the market in that direction. It was not a well-managed company.

People have often indicated we would have consolidated on iPhone-like devices in Apple’s absence, but I’m not convinced.

Apple was unique: they were willing to bet the company on a single form factor, they had a small but loyal and vocal fan base, and they had their own retail stores to give people the opportunity to experience the phone.

Anyone else would have made it just one of a half dozen phones and it would have languished in a dusty corner of one of the crappy operator stores where no one knew how to use it or had any reason to push it.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#23

Post by smugma »

karmakurtisaani wrote: post #16
Veliladon wrote: post #6

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

I once read an interview with Anssi Vanjoki, who was one of the top executives at Nokia. He said indeed that when he first held an iPhone he knew it was over for Nokia. If I remember correctly, Nokia had good tech for smart phones, but no vision or courage to drive the market in that direction. It was not a well-managed company.

I have a cousin who still fondly talks about how great Nokia was in its heyday. Great engineers, leading edge hardware and innovation, leading supply chain, etc.

It’s always weird to hear. He blamed Nokia’s inability to come up with a decent mobile OS and get behind it.

Horace Dediu has written a lot about both Apple and Nokia. I recall him saying Nokia did some things really well. I think they were caught totally flat footed, and the Symbian debacle did them in

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#24

Post by bandergirl »

karmakurtisaani wrote: post #16
Veliladon wrote: post #6

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

I once read an interview with Anssi Vanjoki, who was one of the top executives at Nokia. He said indeed that when he first held an iPhone he knew it was over for Nokia. If I remember correctly, Nokia had good tech for smart phones, but no vision or courage to drive the market in that direction. It was not a well-managed company.

Nokia had vision and creativity, don’t forget the N-Gage, the first phone/smartphone/console hybrid. I think it just lacked in software investment. Nobody thought it was necessary or even possible to deliver that kind of experience on phones.

The iPhone came out when Windows XP was the default PC experience for most of the world, why would anyone need anything like iPhoneOS on a damn phone? Talk about overkill.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#25

Post by ajross »

Veliladon wrote: post #6

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

It was a lot less of a paradigm shift at the time than it seems like in hindsight, actually.

In fact there were competing phones with Windows Mobile or Symbian that did have similar hardware specs. (Really if you have to pick the single defining hardware innovation of the iPhone, it was the full slate capacitative touchscreen.) And in some areas the iPhone was clearly behind, shipping with a EDGE-only radio at a time where other networks were rapidly deploying 3G hardware.

But the big missing bit was the app store, which didn't exist yet. When the iPhone shipped, it was a very expensive phone with a web browser, and nothing else. Jobs was going on stage saying that web apps were all anyone needed, and people were laughing at him. When the app store was finally released it only barely beat Android to market.

It wasn't really until the 3G/3GS generation that the product really hit its stride, and a few more revs after that before it became the sine qua non accessory for the tech set.

In hindsight, yeah, that was a huge inflection point. But at the time there were a lot of reasons to prefer other devices.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#26

Post by twoodfin »

bombcar wrote: post #12
esjeon wrote: post #11

Read the article before jumping into roasting. The author is NOT criticizing iPhone - he's skeptical simply because, at the time, network operators dictated which manufacturers enter the mobile phone market or not. It was a highly controlled market, and Apple not only had to build a great phone, but also had to punch through that stupid business barrier. In the end, Apple did make it.

Iirc Apple basically bribed Cingular I think to get a toe in the market, at the time Apple fans would go to great lengths to get things working (including installing FireWire to use iPods on windows) so it worked out. AT&T later bought Cingular.

Other way around: Cingular bought AT&T Wireless and adopted the stronger brand.

It wasn’t so much Apple bribing Cingular as it was Apple/Jobs selling Cingular on the strategy of using iPhone exclusivity as an accelerant for their plans to become a top tier mobile provider.

It worked.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#27

Post by zuhsetaqi »

esjeon wrote: post #11

Read the article before jumping into roasting. The author is NOT criticizing iPhone - he's skeptical simply because, at the time, network operators dictated which manufacturers enter the mobile phone market or not. It was a highly controlled market, and Apple not only had to build a great phone, but also had to punch through that stupid business barrier. In the end, Apple did make it.

That's only partly true. He said:

> As customers start to realise that the competition offers better functionality at a lower price, by negotiating a better subsidy, sales will stagnate. After a year a new version will be launched, but it will lack the innovation of the first and quickly vanish.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#28

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

bottlepalm wrote: post #8

Matches the same prediction for Tesla - the hardware companies ‘will catch up’ to the software ones. Yes cars and phones are hardware, but that’s relatively easy compared to the software. In cars people think software is just infotainment, but it’s really hundreds of controllers all networked and often each written by different vendors. Tesla has brought most of them in house, and made them updateable. Enabling featu…

I think the interesting thing with respect to Tesla, and which is why I disagree with your analysis, is that they are winning not because other car companies couldn't catch up to software, but because Tesla saw the writing on the wall early and caught up with hardware.

Tesla has been slashing prices recently, and they can do that and still be profitable because, especially when it comes to batteries, they have some of the lowest production costs in the industry. This is the thing that is pretty shocking to me: Tesla has managed to build in a lower cost of hardware production, which everyone else said they were so bad at. In addition, Tesla was the only one with the foresight to build out their Supercharger network, and that is a huge competitive advantage for them. For disclosure, I despise Musk and will not by a Tesla, and I own a non-Tesla EV. I love my car, but most of the other charging networks (especially Electrify America) are downright dogshit compared to Superchargers - half the stations are randomly busted, their charging speeds max out at like 50 kW when they advertise 350 kW, etc.

I think the thing that's instructive about both Tesla and Apple is they are winning because they control entire "ecosystems": software plus very-well integrated hardware. Despite all the complaints about Tesla's shitty QA (which seem totally valid IMO), this seems like a situation that should improve over time, while it will be really difficult for legacy car companies to match Tesla's costs when it comes to battery production.

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#29

Post by Seanambers »

Veliladon wrote: post #6

The second Apple debuted that smooth as fucking butter interface it was clear as day how badly behind people were at the time. Pre-iPhone the form of phones was incredible but the function was dogshit garbage. Small displays rendering everything in software and failing to hit 15fps on a good day because these poor little ARM chips were being abused to within an inch of their lives. If you were seriously lucky you mig…

It's hard to overstate just how big of a leap the iPhone was. Critics only focused on the shortcomings but neglected to see what it really was.

Steve Jobs Introducing at Macworld in 2007 is a classic for the ages.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQKMoT-6XSg

Re: Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly (2006)

#30

Post by charles_f »

indigoabstract wrote: post #14

Whew, I'm so happy I've always been right in my predictions, unlike this poor fellow, who has probably been unemployed since this inexcusable prediction failure.

That's why I only predict that things that should kill me, won't. If ever I am wrong I will not have to suffer the consequences. So far I've always been right. I am slowly coming to the conclusion that I am immortal.
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