Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study • Hacker News Board

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#41

Post by bittercynic » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:36 PM UTC

DrThunder wrote: post #2

I feel like the col is just an excuse for people that don't really want them anyway. Throughout history people have had children with very little material possessions. Talk to someone who went through the great depression about how you don't have enough money etc. to have kids. I think we've just brainwashed ourselves into believing you need to be ultra wealthy to give kids a good childhood. If you literally cannot a…

Some of it may be cautious attitudes re: the next few decades on Earth.

Climate change may make it even more competitive to survive in areas where the weather is pleasant. People are already being displaced by climate change. Horrible for the displaced people, and may contribute to crowding somewhere else.

Increasing numbers of people and increasing expectations for material wealth may lead to more frequent and widespread conflicts over resources.

It's possible I'll get to live a full life before things get too bad, but I'd only be adding to the troubles by bringing more humans onto the planet. If we can get fertility rates low enough, and find ways to adapt economic systems to cope gracefully with declining populations, maybe our troubles can be mitigated.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#42

Post by darklycan51 » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:36 PM UTC

I don't think we can do much and I am not sure we should do much either.

Things that contribute towards people not having kids (in any order):

Prices are more expensive as a result of having more people (remember that for a long long time population was stable until artificial fertilizer allowed for pop boom) so people cannot afford to live off the father alone or with the mother having a small job only.

corporate culture reduces the window of time where mothers can have children, often they wait until their 30s rather than start at 18 or 20, meaning less than half the time to decide to have a second or third child, people haven't recovered or passed enough time to decide to have more kids.

Housing is expensive, way too expensive in many places to afford to have a family.

(This I have seen and have heard women say this), in many cases (don't know the reason really as I am a guy) women date men and say they love them but don't want to have children with them, then sometimes divorce and decide they wanna have children with someone else, It might be related to men getting overall less "manly" or something, I really don't know how instincts work but may be related, if a guy is (what they call in Japan a grass eater) they might not want to have children with them even though they are in a long term relationship and in turn it might reduce the birth rate (as if they divorce and remarry that happens later on and they might only have time for one). but this last one is pure speculation, it's just a phenomenon that I've seen happen often.

Bad outlook for the future, if things look bleak or seem like they will stay about the same, it might not incentivize people to have children.

Either way, is it so bad? a lot of systems in the west rely on it, yes. but there's also over harvesting, look at the regions with the best dirt in China, they are extremely over harvesting their land and may run into a crisis at some point.

On the other end, population crisis in China is sort of a meme as well, because if you look at statistics 20% of young people are unemployed in China, means that a drop in young people won't really cause a gigantic crash, they are automating a lot of their industries and may continue to increase so.

I think we need a reduction in people to stabilize the world and the resources that we use, I don't think 8 billion or 10 billion as its projected is healthy for the world, we are over consuming natural resources to an extent where nature cannot recover in time

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#43

Post by throwaway03635 » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:36 PM UTC

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #13

I'd also note that plummeting birthrates are also happening in countries that are known for great social welfare, lots of government support for new mothers, and a more egalitarian society overall, like Finland. A lot of people simply don't want kids. Kids take a huge amount of time and investment for about 2 decades of one's life, and that can have a large, significant negative impact on quality of life, especially…

I agree with you. Now that women are not required to have children due to cultural or economic reasons, many choose not to. I don't see why many politicians think that is surprising.

There are too many demands in modern societies. Ironically, a kid may actually require even more work now than in the past. In the past the kids were less dependent on their parents. Now they need to be followed up closely at school and activities outside of school as well. I don't have children myself but I hear others have a full schedule at home where they spend a huge amount of their time helping with homework, driving the kids to activities or working for their local soccer club.

The parents basically end up as as part time managers of their children's careers. In some cases they barely have any personal time. The day is full of chores and activities. Not everyone wants that.

The only way we can change this is to make sure that it is possible to have kids, career and enough free personal time. I don't know if it is possible to do that without the government spending lots of money on these initiatives.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#44

Post by throwaway22032 » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:36 PM UTC

throwawaysleep wrote: post #37

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #13

I'd also note that plummeting birthrates are also happening in countries that are known for great social welfare, lots of government support for new mothers, and a more egalitarian society overall, like Finland. A lot of people simply don't want kids. Kids take a huge amount of time and investment for about 2 decades of one's life, and that can have a large, significant negative impact on quality of life, especially…

I ponder this question myself on the edge of Gen Z and my life is simplified tremendously if I just essentially pause it in high earning young person mode. Money is abundant for travel and anything I want. I don't need to figure out dating. Means I don't need to figure out everything from conflict resolution to clothing. I don't need to struggle to buy a ton of housing. I have friends/a sister who will have kids I ca…

Many people feel this way in their mid 20s, it often changes when you hit your early to mid 30s.

Most of us don't believe that it'll happen to us either. :)

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#45

Post by coldtea » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:37 PM UTC

logicchains wrote: post #18

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #12

These threads pop up here just about every other day. It's not just Japan, though the media seems fixated on Japan to an unusual extent. Here are some 2023 TFR estimates, source: CIA. Japan: 1.39. Poland: 1.41. Spain: 1.29. South Korea: 1.1. Taiwan: 1.09. China: 1.45. Canada: 1.57. Germany: 1.58. UK: 1.63. Cuba: 1.71. USA: 1.85. Italy: 1.24. This is noteworthy as Italy has been under replacement TFR for nearly 50 yea…

>Why all of the articles about Japan, when the situation in Italy is more dire? Go figure. It's more dire in Japan because Japan has very restrictive immigration policies, so the decrease in working-age people there cannot be offset to some degree by immigration, unlike in western countries.

If people in a country are just substitutable like that by people from other countries without anything of any importance being lost, then we don't need to care for per-country replacement rates, just global ones. Except if the concern is purely economic.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#46

Post by remarkEon » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:37 PM UTC

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #13

I'd also note that plummeting birthrates are also happening in countries that are known for great social welfare, lots of government support for new mothers, and a more egalitarian society overall, like Finland. A lot of people simply don't want kids. Kids take a huge amount of time and investment for about 2 decades of one's life, and that can have a large, significant negative impact on quality of life, especially…

I agree, it's not surprising given birth control and economic pressures to join the workforce, but it is new and distinctly modern, and writing it off as "some people just don't want kids" isn't a satisfactory explanation.

Something is deeply wrong in a society if it has all of the social safety net tools, like Finland does, to ease the burdens of childbearing and people still choose to not do it. It's a society in a slow, generations long suicide.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#47

Post by catchnear4321 » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:37 PM UTC

throwawaysleep wrote: post #37

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #13

I'd also note that plummeting birthrates are also happening in countries that are known for great social welfare, lots of government support for new mothers, and a more egalitarian society overall, like Finland. A lot of people simply don't want kids. Kids take a huge amount of time and investment for about 2 decades of one's life, and that can have a large, significant negative impact on quality of life, especially…

I ponder this question myself on the edge of Gen Z and my life is simplified tremendously if I just essentially pause it in high earning young person mode. Money is abundant for travel and anything I want. I don't need to figure out dating. Means I don't need to figure out everything from conflict resolution to clothing. I don't need to struggle to buy a ton of housing. I have friends/a sister who will have kids I ca…

neverland doesn’t have a need for geriatric medicine.

you can have a ton of fun for a large portion of the rest of your life, and hopefully something happens such that later life care won’t be a concern. robot caretakers, clinical immortality, or otherwise.

this isn’t judgement, that may be the safer gamble. but it is a gamble.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#48

Post by teg4n_ » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:37 PM UTC

orangepurple wrote: post #20

zpeti wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a surface level explanation but there must be deeper reasons why people aren’t having children. Maybe our lives are so comfortable we just don’t want the inconvenience of children. Maybe we’re so obsessed with momentary hedonism that doing something extremely hard for 18 years doesn’t seem worth it. Maybe there are so many generational traumas built up over thousands of years that now that we have som…

I suspect many more are blisfully unaware of what will happen to them when they inevitably end up in a nursing home. I'm not sure what you mean by generational traumas but if you mean what I think you mean they can be overcome. My grandparents vehemently hated certain specific ethnicities till the end because their brothers and sisters and parents were executed ("disappeared") by their soldiers and secret police. My…

I don’t think having children is protection against ending up in a nursing home.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#49

Post by cjbgkagh » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:37 PM UTC

logicchains wrote: post #18

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #12

These threads pop up here just about every other day. It's not just Japan, though the media seems fixated on Japan to an unusual extent. Here are some 2023 TFR estimates, source: CIA. Japan: 1.39. Poland: 1.41. Spain: 1.29. South Korea: 1.1. Taiwan: 1.09. China: 1.45. Canada: 1.57. Germany: 1.58. UK: 1.63. Cuba: 1.71. USA: 1.85. Italy: 1.24. This is noteworthy as Italy has been under replacement TFR for nearly 50 yea…

>Why all of the articles about Japan, when the situation in Italy is more dire? Go figure. It's more dire in Japan because Japan has very restrictive immigration policies, so the decrease in working-age people there cannot be offset to some degree by immigration, unlike in western countries.

Japanese old people are healthier and more able to take care of themselves which is a big difference and in my view preferable to mass migration.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#50

Post by version_five » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 2:38 PM UTC

throwaway22032 wrote: post #15

At least in the West, sexual liberation seems to have gone so far that a lot of people have lost sight of the fact that long term commitment is valuable in later life. Childbearing seems to be one aspect that's being pushed aside there, but it's far from being the only one. Children have always thought that they'll be young forever, but the age at which that changes seems to be increasing.

Anecdotally, people still want kids, they just think they can wait, and then for many it's too late when they realize they don't have time anymore. Fertility clinic demand is through the roof while birth rates fall...

It seems to transcend culture so it's logical to think it's economic, but I think one factor is that we're indoctrinated about how bad it is to get pregnant, the importance of birth control, availability of abortion. Pregnancy is something that is framed as life-ruining. And so young people have to take the time to get over that indoctrination, and it often takes too long.