So how can one profit from deglobalization ?
The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
191–200 of 252 posts
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#192Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Cuba is a much better one, it's not even hypothetical America doesn't claim Cuba as its territory. If China requested parity with Taiwan in respect of America's relations with Cuba (recognition of sovereignty, trade restrictions and no American military presence there), it would be a good deal for everyone.
>America doesn't claim Cuba as its territory. Where do you think the Guantanamo Bay torture facility is located?
It's a lease, not a claim. US even sends cuba checks for it.
Not even sure how you can equate a lease of one bay to claiming the whole island. Besides, If china stopped claiming Taiwan was it's territory and insisted on leasing one small base, I think we could all go to sleep better at night.
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
> When all's said and done, Chinese factories haven't slowed down and Chinese GDP is still rising (by more than American GDP) which tells you that the "decoupling" has to be in some respect illusory. Can we really know that anymore? China has stopped publishing a majority of economic indicators.
Satellite photos of night-time lighting and shipping movements are probably reliable.
2022-2023 YOY decrease in china shipping volume
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/reality-of-ocean-container...
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#194With western wages? How should this work? The prices china gave us, is because china is a euphemism for "slavery"..
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#195If there’s one broad consensus in American policymaking circles today, it’s that global supply chains need to become less dependent on China. I agree, and the other way, in many BRICS and other countries, there is a broad consensus that global economies need to become less dependent on US Dollars. Both efforts at decentralization and lessening concentration of power are probably going to lead to new good results, as…
What's the rationale behind this? Why specifically China?
Probably old fashioned Anglo-Saxon feeling of superiority and fear that world order where white Anglo Saxons dominate markets and geopolitical landscape goes away forever
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
> When confronted with slightly more competent weak opponents (e.g. Taliban), the US military performs far more poorly. This poor performance worsens sharply as enemy competence scales. Russia and America have fought albeit slightly indirectly. US soldiers engaged Wagner in Syria in the Battle of Khasham. Rough outcome of this battle. US / SDF side - 1 wounded Wagner / Syrian government side - 50 - 100 dead. upto 200…
What is your point? That soldiers die if you shell them?
> What is your point? That soldiers die if you shell them?
My point is that the following paragraph doesn't exactly hold up if you consider Wagner to be "slight more competent weak opponents" which I would.
> When confronted with slightly more competent weak opponents (e.g. Taliban), the US military performs far more poorly. This poor performance worsens sharply as enemy competence scales.
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#197Earlier quoted context omitted.
> When all's said and done, Chinese factories haven't slowed down and Chinese GDP is still rising (by more than American GDP) which tells you that the "decoupling" has to be in some respect illusory. Can we really know that anymore? China has stopped publishing a majority of economic indicators.
If you don't believe Chinese statistics, you can check that US import from China is back to pre-COVID volumes and rising. Honestly, I'm tired of this "oh they're totalitarian, so we cannot believe their statistics when it's good" stance. It looks so much like a comfortable self-deceit.
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Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#198Funny how things change. In the 90s the U.S., EU and Japan were the champions of free trade for industrial products and services. However, when it would come to agricultural goods they were the champions of tariffs and protectionism. Why? Easy: because 3rd world countries were very competitive on agriculture. Egypt had better cotton, Argentina had beef, Brazil had orange juice, Cuba had sugar, etc, etc. 3rd world cou…
Not only that, but the US made a trap for themselves: Theres no know how and capable people to replicate the tech. This take decades, 2 or even 3 to build. I have the impression that the China today is the result of the planning made in the 90s, implemented in the 00s. What planning the west did last 20 years? I think the west already lost and this is the tantrum. :(
If you had ever lived and worked in the countries that are the public boogeymen for world domination, or even just with people and companies from those countries, you wouldn't be quite so down.
I think it's quite telling that the "workshop of the world" does not export high precision CNC equipment made by domestic companies in any meaningful amounts. Similarly, even before any export controls and sanctions really kicked in, their domestic chip makers had huge problems with yield and quality even though they bought tried and tested machines (and sometimes whole departments) from established chipmakers.
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#199For an exercise in how wrong we can be, here's Steve Yegge two years ago telling us to prepare to speak Mandarin because China is going to reign supreme and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Steve deleted the article but the internet remembers. https://archive.vn/bC1Ns
What, you think he's wrong because China had a bad economic quarter two years after he posted that? You realize China has had unprecedented growth over the past 15 years, with pundits predicting its collapse the entire time. They have 1.4B people, a very good education system, and a huge head of steam.
China misses GDP targets by 1% for a single quarter, every news outlet reports on it, and in five years everyone is going to wonder how China has gotten to the place it has. That's basically happened repeatedly over the past 15-20 years.
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's the funny thing about all the BRICS bluster, so many of the countries in (or soon to be in) the "group" either hate each other, are barely functioning or are just direct competitors in general. It's amazing anyone thinks they'll do anything that requires cooperation and mutual trust beyond making empty promises.
There were centuries of organizations that tried to prevent war by trust and cooperation. Before the UN was the League of Nations, before the LoN was the Concert of Europe and there were undoubtedly countless efforts prior. But they all failed completely abysmally. Do you know the one thing that actually worked? Countries having nuclear weapons. Suddenly there was a strong self-interest in avoiding war, and "real" wa…
I disagree, China, Russia and India for instance are not at risk of being dominated by the US. All 3 individually had and even still have the ability to have a similar status as the EU.
Their primary complaint is that they wish they were hegemons, except to them hegemony means being far more of an asshole to those you dominate than the US's terms. Thus their need to try to force the issue rather than naturally ending up in that position. This is also an issue India and China would conflict on, as being neighbors, they seek to be hegemons over the same region.
They're talking about moving past the USD, but none of them have the trust and general guarantees it has had and none of them are going to risk putting their trade in a currency that would be dependent on the whims of their direct competitors.
I also disagree with your premise that this is comparable to nuclear deterrence. While nukes have been a deterrent to conflict between the US and USSR, Europe and USSR and perhaps also between India and China, they haven't really been a large factor at all in Europe and in Africa.
I think they've been comparatively peaceful not because of nukes, but because European countries were forced to come to terms with the futility of trying to be hegemons over each other over both world wars, with the second one having finally been brutal enough to make them give that up. Now as WW2 fades from living memory, they remain peaceful due to deep integration between cultures that makes it difficult for them to "other" another enough to justify war.