For an exercise in how wrong we can be, here's Steve Yegge two years ago telling us to prepare to speak Mandarin because China is going to reign supreme and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Steve deleted the article but the internet remembers.
The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
171–180 of 252 posts
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#172Noah has become a political pundit who tends to straw man the opponents to his preferred political ideology of centrist us democrat. That’s not to say he isn’t worth reading, it’s good to know what kinds of arguments that group is making because they are extremely powerful. But it’s important to keep in mind when reading articles like this where he’s hitting an extremely reputable magazine that isn’t politically alig…
> Noah has become a political pundit who tends to straw man the opponents to his preferred political ideology of centrist us democrat ... But it’s important to keep in mind when reading articles like this where he’s hitting an extremely reputable magazine that isn’t politically aligned to him.
Huh? The Economist is as liberal-centrist as it gets. Whatever the rift forming here is (and I agree there is one), it's happening within the neoliberal bloc.
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
Despite the hope for a more democratic China in the 80s being mostly dead, contemporary China must still reckon with the immediate economic disaster being an military agressor and being sharply cut off from American trade would entail. By slowly decoupling US-China trade, we remove that economic risk for Chinese strategists, making agression more viable.
I think China also needs to reckon with confronting adversaries with continuous deployment and a seasoned veteran force from the line to the top generals, while Chinas military hasn’t been meaningfully deployed beyond exercises in 60 years. No one - not a single person - has any meaningful warfare experience in China - while the US and it’s allies, for better or worse, is highly skilled and experienced in continuous…
For real? You think the losing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan somehow gave valuable experience that in any way offsets the attrition on the armed forces?
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#174Noah has become a political pundit who tends to straw man the opponents to his preferred political ideology of centrist us democrat. That’s not to say he isn’t worth reading, it’s good to know what kinds of arguments that group is making because they are extremely powerful. But it’s important to keep in mind when reading articles like this where he’s hitting an extremely reputable magazine that isn’t politically alig…
> Noah has become a political pundit who tends to straw man the opponents to his preferred political ideology of centrist us democrat ... But it’s important to keep in mind when reading articles like this where he’s hitting an extremely reputable magazine that isn’t politically aligned to him. Huh? The Economist is as liberal-centrist as it gets. Whatever the rift forming here is (and I agree there is one), it's happ…
Economist is undisguisedly neoliberal, which also means it’s anti protectionist. The us centrist democrats haven’t been neoliberal since Obama. They’ve become nationalist and in favor of industrial policy.
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#175Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Honestly, I'm tired of this "oh they're totalitarian, so we cannot believe their statistics when it's good" stance. It looks so much like a comfortable self-deceit. I’m tired of it too, but I think it’s better than “not use any data points” or “trust the super subjective data points put out by a totalitarian regime so they aren’t comparable to other countries.” I don’t think the US is perfect, but economic indicato…
Yeah the US leadership is smart enough to almost never lie outright. There are lots of more nuanced ways to technically tell the truth but still significantly warp the information to your benefit. I’m kind of surprised that China seems to be less savvy to this approach.
> There are lots of more nuanced ways to technically tell the truth but still significantly warp the information to your benefit. I’m kind of surprised that China seems to be less savvy to this approach.
That is the national government's approach, for the most part: tweak the basket of goods you use for inflation here, pick the best looking among several measures there, and so on. The overt manipulation occurs at the subnational level: Chinese statistical work is heavily decentralized and officials are promoted (or not) partially on the basis of meeting growth targets. The national government corrects for this to some degree - but estimating just how manipulated the data is is hard, and provides another lever you can pull to push it one way or another.
Federal statistical agencies in the US conduct more and better direct research and report through fewer (though not zero) layers of politically motivated actors.
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#176> This will take time. Decoupling is not an instantaneous process. China spent two decades becoming the workshop of the world; the rest of the developing world isn’t going to mirror that accomplishment in one or two years. It is all about dependency trees. The US decides to divert imports from China to other countries, which in turn may import from China. This reminds me of my day-to-day work so much; especially w.r.…
> It is all about dependency trees. The US decides to divert imports from China to other countries, which in turn may import from China. This is already happening with more than ~80% of products that are "Made in Vietnam" and at least ~40% of products that are "Made in Korea." Not only do the raw materials come from China, but most of the work is done in China. The product is shipped overland from a Chinese factory t…
Honestly did you even read the article? "Yes, there are cases of Southeast Asian nations slapping their labels on Chinese goods and then sending them to America to allow Chinese manufacturers to get around tariffs. But look at the graph of U.S. import shares above, and you’ll see that if 7% of imports from Asia ex-China are due to re-exporting, that would only shave 1.7 percentage points off of Asia ex-China’s share — only a fraction of the 4 percentage point increase in U.S. imports from that region since 2019." It refutes this point like 2 minutes in.
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#177Earlier quoted context omitted.
By the the fold I meant a country that generally plays by internationally accepted customs and cordiality, not a "US client state". If a country invites you to their joint military exercise, you don't spy on them during the exercise. This is basic common sense.
>internationally accepted customs Which are more often than not US dictated. >If a country invites you to their joint military exercise, you don't spy on them during the exercise This is nonsense. No-one does this more than the US.
Citation please. Heres mine:
https://news.usni.org/2014/07/18/china-sends-uninvited-spy-s...
Very cringey.
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
By the the fold I meant a country that generally plays by internationally accepted customs and cordiality, not a "US client state". If a country invites you to their joint military exercise, you don't spy on them during the exercise. This is basic common sense.
I'm sorry, are you saying that the US doesn't spy on military exercises of our allies?
Nothing as cringingly stupid as this:
https://news.usni.org/2014/07/18/china-sends-uninvited-spy-s...
Happy to be corrected, show me.
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#179Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think China also needs to reckon with confronting adversaries with continuous deployment and a seasoned veteran force from the line to the top generals, while Chinas military hasn’t been meaningfully deployed beyond exercises in 60 years. No one - not a single person - has any meaningful warfare experience in China - while the US and it’s allies, for better or worse, is highly skilled and experienced in continuous…
For real? You think the losing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan somehow gave valuable experience that in any way offsets the attrition on the armed forces?
I mean US is aggressor state, so has experience in invading other countries. If they wanted to invade China they would have some experience in doing so. I just hope EU leaders won’t follow them this time.
Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself
#180Earlier quoted context omitted.
For real? You think the losing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan somehow gave valuable experience that in any way offsets the attrition on the armed forces?
I mean US is aggressor state, so has experience in invading other countries. If they wanted to invade China they would have some experience in doing so. I just hope EU leaders won’t follow them this time.
USAmerica now only has experience fighting against much weaker opponents. Almost everyone who remembers WW2 is dead.
When confronted with slightly more competent weak opponents (e.g. Taliban), the US military performs far more poorly. This poor performance worsens sharply as enemy competence scales.
Full-scale war with near-peer or peer adversaries? USA is SOL.
But aside from the loud-mouthed war hawks or perma-doomers on YouTube, I don't think anyone in the US or China (or Russia, for that matter) with decision-making power really has the appetite for direct open conflict, since it means the end of all things.
Expect more proxy wars like Ukraine...