How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s • Hacker News Board

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#151

Post by pessimizer » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 7:33 PM UTC

speakfreely wrote: post #89

seydor wrote: post #25

Life may be too good for kids anymore The article has curiously little about what koreans actually want, vs what the author thinks is stopping them (despite their burning desire) to have kids. After all, as the article says the birthrate went way down a long time ago thus it's likely that people would know by now what is stopping them from having more kids

As you can see clearly from the sibling comments to mine, the problem is not that people don't have the means to have and support children. The problem is that they have a very specific vision for what it's supposed to look like, and that specific vision is extremely unaffordable right now. Various demographic, technological, and financial phenomenon have forced us to a point where the big suburban house, yard, fence…

In countries without proper health care, the lives of everyone lower than upper-middle class are unbelievably precarious. In the US at least, although there was a lot less healthcare 100 years ago, there were no procedures that cost you 10 years salary.

Just giving birth in the US costs about $20K. It takes a day, and can be done at home by professionals that don't even need to be trained as nurses at 99% of the safety level. It can be done by a woman alone, with no help, at 80% of the safety level. If you can wring $20K out of something that generally happens by itself without a hitch, your system is fucked up.

Life is precarious here, although often luxurious. Exchange that luxury for security, and you'll see a lot more people confident enough in the future to have a baby responsibly. It's not a question of having a suburban yard, it's a question of having something that won't be pulled out from under you quickly. The suburban yard is just a buffer, just like close family that live nearby is. But capitalism atomizes the family, and encourages them to move to find work on a dime. Capitalism is a direct competitor to the family: family is where capitalism isn't. The larger families are, the less capitalism exists.

SK is a US vassal state, so I can't imagine that their health care system is much more humane.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#152

Post by nonethewiser » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 7:42 PM UTC

kredd wrote: post #147

nonethewiser wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have never seen this sort of extreme existential pessimism in real life (not online). Altering major life decisions like having children based on fears of a negative future. Im not sure if its just more commonly expressed online or if its more common in other place (Europe maybe?) or different age groups (teens or young adults?) but if I asserted this to people locally they would think im nuts. Another possibility…

Not sure what to say, but do you have friends in their 20s? It’s not exact doomerism, but more of a “if I am struggling, why should I burden someone that I will love even more”. And again, for a lot of people life can be more fulfilling without having a child as well. The general economy want these people to have children for its own benefit, not for the benefit of the parents.

> The general economy want these people to have children for its own benefit, not for the benefit of the parents.

Well maybe the parents aren’t supposed to be the beneficiary in the parent-child relationship.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#153

Post by angmarsbane » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 7:44 PM UTC

One thing I don't see mentioned is that a larger portion of the population spends a lot more time in full-time school, and in part-time school + working which easily delays having children.

Is it truly necessary for so many of us to spend that much time in school? Can school programs be shortened? Can we admit in some areas additional schooling doesn't provide more value than on the job training / experience?

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#154

Post by nonethewiser » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 7:45 PM UTC

kredd wrote: post #150

nonethewiser wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its called sacrifice. Enduring inconvenience or discomfort in favor of some greater cause. That’s not to say everyone should have kids or feel this way. But it’s ridiculous to suggest some people just like video games, or traveling, and others like missing work deadlines to care for their sick child (or everything else that goes with raising kids).

Sacrifice is a choice in this scenario. I think, I agree with the OP above, that one chooses to not to make that sacrifice (e.g. lifestyle change). Just the value of the sacrifice has been getting lower and lower every year for younger people.

My point is people are choosing kids because of a deeper responsibility and meaning. Not because the experience of raising kids is more fun than hanging out with friends or other alternatives. The parent in this scenario is not maximizing their enjoyment or personal satisfaction in the way someone choosing their hobbies is. That distinction did not seem observed when comparing the choice to raise children with the choice to spend free time other ways.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#155

Post by paulcole » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 7:46 PM UTC

aidenn0 wrote: post #81

paulcole wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You and I are probably in similar situations (I rent a 1-bedroom apartment in an upscale-ish area) and you probably earn more than me but I live very comfortably. I've personally never had any interest in having kids. Whatever it is that makes kids appealing, I've never had it. But I think I agree with you and I don't understand why I think I agree with you. Kids do seem like a crazy financial decision today. But if…

Indeed, most of my daughter's friends in early elementary school lived with their parent in a 1BR, studio, or a rented bedroom. One of them had 3 siblings, making 5 people in a 1BR apartment.

I guess maybe parents had fewer expenses when I was a kid (I was born in 1983)? No cable bill, no cell phones, fewer video games, no streaming services?

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#156

Post by angmarsbane » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 7:48 PM UTC

orochimaaru wrote: post #70

Yhippa wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure where you are but it feels that this is exactly what it's like in America. I am not sure why nobody really cares and I suspect by the time people try to do something about it, it won't be too late, but it's going to take a Herculean effort to fix. Mindset and structural support.

It is. The only difference is that the US (and Canada) are way more welcoming of immigrants than South Korea or Japan. That's basically what's keeping them competitive. I'm also pretty sure that high birth rate from illegal south american immigrants keeps US population going. The legal immigrants have children but at a subsistence level, generally <= 2.

My understanding is that Japan requires dual Japan/US citizens to choose one citizenship when they turn 18. If Japan allowed dual citizenship, they could see dual citizens return and raise families. These dual citizens would enable Japan to maintain more homogeneity via immigration while also increasing population growth.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#157

Post by sho_hn » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 7:54 PM UTC

nonethewiser wrote: post #154

kredd wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sacrifice is a choice in this scenario. I think, I agree with the OP above, that one chooses to not to make that sacrifice (e.g. lifestyle change). Just the value of the sacrifice has been getting lower and lower every year for younger people.

My point is people are choosing kids because of a deeper responsibility and meaning. Not because the experience of raising kids is more fun than hanging out with friends or other alternatives. The parent in this scenario is not maximizing their enjoyment or personal satisfaction in the way someone choosing their hobbies is. That distinction did not seem observed when comparing the choice to raise children with the ch…

That's not the comparison I was originally making, though. I was specifically not talking about moment-to-moment sensations of pleasure.

What I meant to capture originally is that some people at least somewhat more habitually choose to spend their time in ways that involve sacrifice and delayed gratification, or are OK with activities that are e.g. (time-wise) 90% build-up for 10% release, or however you want to put it. For example, a long climb for a quick descent. Or a long march to see something first-hand.

Some people treat those activities as aspirational. And in my experience - which is of course anecdotal - that seems to correlate with whether they can get onboard with the idea of child-rearing. It's something about the effort-pleasure ratio and where your cut-off is, or your idea of how much hardship something special is worth, and perhaps whether you value cultivating an attitude about it.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#158

Post by angmarsbane » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 7:54 PM UTC

duchenne wrote: post #94

This sounds like a study made from afar by just reading numbers without even talking to Koreans. When I talk to Korean parents, the vast majority of them tell me that raising even one kid is exhausting. They usually try as much as possible to satisfy every requests of their baby: carrying the toddlers for hours until they fall sleep, letting their kids sleep in the parents bed until they're 6, spoon-feeding them unti…

Perhaps we need a cultural change in parenting, a more relaxed parenting style or more of a village experience where parents can trust teachers, neighbors, bus drivers etc. to reinforce values, expectations, etc. so it isn't all on the parents (or parent).

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#159

Post by angmarsbane » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 7:55 PM UTC

tomtheelder wrote: post #80

thegreenswede wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. I want kids but I don't want them until I can afford stable housing. And if that's hard for me as an overpaid tech worker, then I understand why most people are delaying kids or not having them at all. If most young people are still living with parents or roommates well into their 30's, then it's not a mystery why my generation isn't having kids. Nothing to do with 'life is so good kids aren't desirable anymore'.

Then why does the birth rate steadily go down as you move up the income curve? My experience is that my wealthy adult peer group just has almost no interest in having children while my high school friends, many struggling badly financially, all already have families.

The more money you make the higher the potential loss in terms of child support and alimony should there be a divorce.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#160

Post by angmarsbane » Wed, Aug 30, 2023, 7:57 PM UTC

throwawaysleep wrote: post #113

tomtheelder wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why does the birth rate steadily go down as you move up the income curve? My experience is that my wealthy adult peer group just has almost no interest in having children while my high school friends, many struggling badly financially, all already have families.

Higher standards. The person you are replying to wants stable housing on some of the most desirable land in the world. The conditions for upper middle class people to have kids are exceedingly high by any standard.

I don't think it is an absurd or even high standard to want reasonably priced (30% of income) shelter (whether owned or rented) within a reasonable commuting distance (30 mins one-way) of a job.

Am I truly out in left field on this?