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Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

arstechnica.com

191–200 of 233 posts

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#191
post #171
post #158

Carbon credits; Indulgences dressed to serve modern sensibilities

I mean, if they could actually work then they'd be perfectly valid. Say Carbon-capture were at a point where we could actually say that my paying $100 caused an extra metric ton of CO2 to be extracted from the atmosphere. Then it actually would work to reduce what I can and offset the rest. Carbon is fungible. If I release 100 tons and capture 120 tons, I've done the world a favor. The issue is simply that the Carbon…

>Then it actually would work to reduce what I can and offset the rest. Carbon is fungible. If I release 100 tons and capture 120 tons, I've done the world a favor.

Except what if you only offset 30 tons and you produced an additional 80 tons because you thought you offsetted most of your emissions?

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#192
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh I get it. You tax emissions with no way to lower the tax besides lowering emissions. That means there's an underlying accounting for carbon, but like you said there's not something like market or exchange. So in this model air travel for example would 2x in price, but 1x of that would go towards the carbon tax which is then redistributed to everyone. Sounds interesting, are there any particular strengths or weakne…

The strengths are that it's simple, hard to game, and doesn't harm ordinary people because the average person gets a refund of 100% of the money. (It's also somewhat progressive because people with more money tend to emit more carbon and so pay more tax, but only get the same refund.) The main "weakness" is that it imposes significant costs on existing fossil fuel operations. Oil and coal companies would lose billion…

The other weakness is you can game it with international trade.

Produce a good in a country without the carbon tax, repackage it in a country that doesn't keep good origin manifests, lie about doing that, then send it to your destination on a solar powered boat (or whatever has the lowest carbon footprint).

We see the same game being played with slavery and child labor. Pick a favorite brand, add "slavery" and you'll find decades of shocked outrage and "commitment to do better"

Mind you, I still support broad carbon taxes. But this is a predictable outcome.

https://www.discoursemagazine.com/economics/2022/01/05/the-c...

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#193
post #168

If you had $5000 that you wanted to use to fight climate change, and you wanted to have it have a bigger multiplying effect than your own personal consumption (install heat pumps, get electric car, etc.), where would you put that, given that most carbon credits seem to be scams? That is, what's the least-scammy carbon credit, and/or place of concrete change? Places I donate to, but wonder how much the effect of each…

Buy some land in a cheap rural place and fill it with fruit trees and contribute that towards the community each year. That will sequester far more carbon and help the environment more than contributing funds towards these sorts of programmes - and you will likely build up some immovable assets over time.

Or buy some land and leave it alone, let nature do it's thing. Sadly this is not possible as in most places there is legislation in place that prevents you from "mismanaging" land like this.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Today's cost of atmospheric carbon capture is several hundred dollars / ton. For stuff like direct air capture, not for afforestation.

Same issue of "honesty" with afforestation-based credits. A ton of carbon removed during the growth of a new tree is not equivalent to a ton of carbon already removed today. However, as these types of projects actually do remove carbon, one could probably compute an adjustment factor and purchase additional credits to achieve an "honest" offset.

Factor in that the carbon is only captured so long as the forest survives. If the forest burns or the trees fall and rot, the carbon is returned to the atmosphere unless and until new trees grow.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#195
post #168

If you had $5000 that you wanted to use to fight climate change, and you wanted to have it have a bigger multiplying effect than your own personal consumption (install heat pumps, get electric car, etc.), where would you put that, given that most carbon credits seem to be scams? That is, what's the least-scammy carbon credit, and/or place of concrete change? Places I donate to, but wonder how much the effect of each…

> Direct CO2 removal (Climeworks). Seems like a drop in the bucket, but feel like this tech needs to grow.

I kindly disagree, and I think it is extremely important to understand that. This tech is fundamentally flawed and completely misses the point: climate change (hence CO2) is only a symptom of our biggest problem.

Our biggest problem is abundant energy:

1. Because we have access to a lot of energy, we transform the world in a way that is killing biodiversity: we are currently living a mass extinction (that's not a prediction, that's a fact, it's happening, we can measure it right now). We should do less with less, and preserve habitat for biodiversity. There is no high-tech solution to that, we should preserve life on Earth.

2. Because that abundant energy is mostly fossil based, it emits a ton of CO2. That creates climate change which threatens our very survival (now in the short term). Climate change will create global instability, mass immigration, wars, famines, etc. We don't want that, so we need to emit much, much less CO2. So much less, in fact, that the only viable solution is to do less with less. One could argue that we should "just" replace fossil fuels with better energies (good luck with that, we are not even remotely on that path), but that would not remove point 1 above.

3. Fossil fuels are not unlimited. The peak of conventional oil production was in 2008. The global peak for oil is around now, for gas it is soon. From the peak on, energy will become harder and harder to get (which will induce price instability). Whether we care about climate change and biodiversity or not, fossil energy is going down soon. We don't have viable replacements, so we will have to do less with less. Without abundant energy, we have the same kind of consequences as climate change: global instability, famines, etc. We need to prepare our society to live with less energy. Would you rather go to space on holiday, or eat?

Finally, CO2 removal requires a ton of energy. The only way it can ever possibly be useful is if we suddenly find a way to completely replace fossil energy with renewables (say with nuclear fusion). But it's really not clear at all if we will find such an energy now (nope, wind and solar are not viable replacements for all fossil fuels). Even if we did suddenly get fusion to work, it's already too late: it would take a lot of time to build enough plants everywhere and then rebuild the whole infrastructure to remove fossil fuel.

We need to act now, for our survival. It's high time we accepted that we failed to replace fossil fuels entirely, and even if we did we would still be in a mass extinction. We need to do less with less. Remove what's unnecessary, keep the essential.

It does not mean going back to how people lived in the Middle Age. We need a lot of clever technology if we want to do less with less. That's actually more challenging than what we are doing now, so we need clever people to rethink society and do less with less.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#196
post #173

Misleading title; the study is very specifically about carbon offsetting by slowing deforestation . There are other incredibly common methods of carbon offsetting, e.g. renewable energy projects in developing countries. This study does not cover those. It's been known for a long time that tree-related carbon offsetting is one of the least reliable ways in general.

Carbon offsetting is a joke in general. You need to reduce your carbon emissions, not offset them.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#197
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buy some land in a cheap rural place and fill it with fruit trees and contribute that towards the community each year. That will sequester far more carbon and help the environment more than contributing funds towards these sorts of programmes - and you will likely build up some immovable assets over time.

Or buy some land and leave it alone, let nature do it's thing. Sadly this is not possible as in most places there is legislation in place that prevents you from "mismanaging" land like this.

I'm thinking about doing something like this, but it involves work. I'm going to find native species, maybe focusing on some insect that's in decline, find it's nursery/food plants and fill an area with them, along with any other plants and fungi that have symbiotic relationships with them. Then apply for a grant that specifically targets the threatened species. That way, it's official. It's a ton of work though.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#198
post #168

If you had $5000 that you wanted to use to fight climate change, and you wanted to have it have a bigger multiplying effect than your own personal consumption (install heat pumps, get electric car, etc.), where would you put that, given that most carbon credits seem to be scams? That is, what's the least-scammy carbon credit, and/or place of concrete change? Places I donate to, but wonder how much the effect of each…

Start buying reusable and BIFL goods and avoid everything disposable. It's expensive, but worth it for more than the planet. We need to have a lot more focus on the reduce and reuse components of the solution. Most of what we Americans buy is cheap disposable nonsense that shouldn't exist.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#199

It's interesting, because there is indeed a system in the EU known as carbon allowances. While everyone and their dog can buy offsets, allowances exist in the EU and California (I think?) which are a legal mandate that firms must purchase which are necessary to pollute. There's even tradeable products based on this, and the market seems healthy enough. Offsets are definitely a scam, but I'd love to hear anyone else's…

Hailing from a coal-heavy EU member state(Poland), the least carbon allowances did was to dissuade investors from financing new coal projects.

There's also a shift to renewables - the public at large especially jumped on it because fossil-genereated electricity simply became expensive and there are government subsidies in place to to further sweeten the deal.

There's a law coming into force soon which will allow apartment blocks to produce more solar energy than they consume and sell it, which wasn't the case to date.

Overall the system is working as intended and the share of renewables went from a low point of 11% in 2018 to 20% in 2022 and the trend is likely to continue considering how many new solar projects are in the pipeline.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#200

It's interesting, because there is indeed a system in the EU known as carbon allowances. While everyone and their dog can buy offsets, allowances exist in the EU and California (I think?) which are a legal mandate that firms must purchase which are necessary to pollute. There's even tradeable products based on this, and the market seems healthy enough. Offsets are definitely a scam, but I'd love to hear anyone else's…

Allowance is the new indulgence?
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