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Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

arstechnica.com

131–140 of 233 posts

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#131
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's an acceptable conclusion. So then, what's next? We need to rapidly decarbonize the economy. Current solutions aren't working great, so how do we do it?

You have to end capitalism, and anybody taking this stuff seriously knows that, and they knew carbon offset nonsense was fraudulent the entire time. It was painfully obvious. So what's next? Another fraudulent scheme, because the only other option is socialism.

> You have to end capitalism, and anybody taking this stuff seriously knows that, and they knew carbon offset nonsense was fraudulent the entire time. It was painfully obvious.

1) This makes the axiomatic leap that *everyone* knows that carbon offsets are fraudulent. There're definitely *some* that think so, but not all. Extraordinary claims of "All X is Y" require a proof that X leads to Y in *all* cases, not just *some*.

2) Another axiomatic leap made is that carbon offsets are inherently fraudulent, which again *some* may be, but not all. Similar comprehensive evidence is required to establish that *all* carbon offsets are fraudulent.

3) What is "painfully obvious" to someone may not be to anyone not steeped deep into the subject at hand. Even after being through the subject itself, there is no guarantee that an incrementalistic viewpoint would not be adopted as a result of seeing the faults within the system.

> So what's next? Another fraudulent scheme, because the only other option is socialism.

Socialism is reductively state capitalism with the added façade that democratic consensus & redistribution alone allows for the best outcome. It doesn't take into account desires that may go against the beliefs of the majority, whose desires can run counter to minorities within such a system (e.g LGBTQ+ rights & drug criminalization). Modern tolerances towards them happen to be lucky circumstances that shouldn't be taken for granted, as it could be just as likely for the opposite to have happened.

Even in a dysfunctional state, niches are allowed to manifest within markets that can cater to them without the oversight of the State, for better or for worse. Denying the ability to create said pocket niches by enforcing the majority's views via the State invites levels of authoritarianism & Mother-Knows-Best attitudes that should be opposed from anyone seeking to preserve individual autonomy, which should include the minorities themselves.

In cases of a non-State-based socialism, markets will inevitably be created as a consequence of having to trade with unknown/untrusted parties. The egalitarianistic "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" can only work in scenarios where parties know who each other are, & can consequently apply adjustments to prevent excessive misuse from exploiting parties. Markets arise due to the alternative requiring much more effort to establish & maintain relationships with all parties on all possible tradable goods & services, whereas only a neutral area is required for the former.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#132
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it? I feel like the biggest obstacle here is that any invocation of shared sacrifice or giving up forms of convenience, even fairly minor ones, prompts howls of indignation. Maybe we’re just doing some things we can’t do going forward even if it was comfortable to be able to do so.

Stopping doing things we're doing today is one possibility. How are you going to do that?

If I were in charge I might institute rules controlling, for instance, how low one may set their thermostat, or banning new natural gas home appliances despite whatever boutique complaints people have about gas stoves. I doubt that goes far enough but the fact that this kind of stuff is so difficult/controversial feels like a massive obstacle.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#133
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's an acceptable conclusion. So then, what's next? We need to rapidly decarbonize the economy. Current solutions aren't working great, so how do we do it?

You have to end capitalism, and anybody taking this stuff seriously knows that, and they knew carbon offset nonsense was fraudulent the entire time. It was painfully obvious. So what's next? Another fraudulent scheme, because the only other option is socialism.

Yeah China is definitely the paragon to follow when it comes to CO2...

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why wouldn't people just use their UBI on buying more things, which, as rudimentary understanding of physics goes, yields more demand for production, which increases C02 output? Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't understand how taxing and redistributing the money does anything besides shifts the consumer power a bit??? I mean, wouldn't a better solution just be to have a carbox tax and then destroy the taxed…

You're neither creating nor destroying any new money. Bob is average. Bob pays $100 in carbon tax and then gets a check for $100. He doesn't have any more or less money to spend than he did before. He is able to continue his existing behavior and make no change whatsoever, if he wants. But now he has the incentive to make a change. Because if he installs electric heat pumps instead of heating his house with oil, now…

Ok, I follow now. I do remain skeptical it would work in practice though in any meaningul way to get people to reduce their carbon footprint. For that to work, the numbers would have to be truly significant. I'm not sure what those numbers would look like, but I imagine if people cant forsee the immediate economic benefit to them in the very near future, it wouldn't work.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#135
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't believe the majority of VCM offsets are being purchased by end users. Are they? I thought they're typically purchased by corporate entities to support "net zero carbon by X year" pledges. Apparently this stuff has matured a lot in the last 10 years, and I haven't been keeping pace with it. There's already a concept of "vintage" (i.e. year carbon reduction realized in), but I still don't think they're being tr…

> Apparently this stuff has matured a lot in the last 10 years Matured is not the word I would choose.

Last time I checked on the international side of this, it was mostly an imaginary future.

Now, it looks like there's non-trivial implementation work being done: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_offsets_and_credits#P...

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#136
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To me it looks like we need to win the decarbonization game to maintain a stable climate. Given your salary depends on it, I am hardly surprised.

Yes there's a potential conflict there. I'm curious to hear from your perspective: 1. Do we need to maintain a stable climate? 2. Do we need to win the decarbonization game to do so? And if not, how else do we maintain a stable climate?

1. Of course.

2. A stable climate is a ridiculously hopeless pipe dream in a world dominated by the capitalist mode of production. The anti climate change industry is a fraud by definition.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're neither creating nor destroying any new money. Bob is average. Bob pays $100 in carbon tax and then gets a check for $100. He doesn't have any more or less money to spend than he did before. He is able to continue his existing behavior and make no change whatsoever, if he wants. But now he has the incentive to make a change. Because if he installs electric heat pumps instead of heating his house with oil, now…

Ok, I follow now. I do remain skeptical it would work in practice though in any meaningul way to get people to reduce their carbon footprint. For that to work, the numbers would have to be truly significant. I'm not sure what those numbers would look like, but I imagine if people cant forsee the immediate economic benefit to them in the very near future, it wouldn't work.

They would foresee an immediate economic benefit to them. Many of these technologies are already close to breakeven. The numbers above are a simplified arbitrary example. Try this one.

Bob needs a new furnace. Heat pumps are more efficient and save on energy costs, but also cost more up front than a new furnace. That basically evens out, so maybe right now the heat pumps still cost $5/month more than the furnace, at least in the short term. Until the cost of operating the furnace goes up $50/month because of the carbon tax, in which case he wants to immediately save $45/month.

And Bob is average. Alice is a heavy user. She has a big old house that she likes to keep at 90 degrees all winter, so the carbon tax would increase her heating bill by $500/month, which she can save by switching to heat pumps and installing solar panels on her roof. So she's going to do that right away.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world isn't actually going to end.

> The world isn't actually going to end. The world didn't end after the Black death and it did not end after WW2. And it will not end after a nuclear war. So we should never do anything because the world is never going to end.

no no, actually the sun will swallow the earth in a few million years so thats why we should do nothing.

(/s but there certainly is a strain of the media/public that blasted right past “it’s not real” to “welp it’s real and it’s too late to do anything about it, let’s do nothing”.)

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's assuming the afforestation is even helpful and not one of the various examples of incentives for planting trees leading to work that's actually doing more harm than good.

Out of all the nebulous carbon offset schemes that exist today, afforestation seems to be one of the least scammy options if ones adjusts for the fact that "future value" != "present value". Even the uncertainty of the long-term success of afforestation projects can be statistically modelled and incorporated into an adjustment factor. However, nobody is going to willingly do that, so even those types of offsets will…

I am very dubious that afforestation won’t be logged or burned at some future date, which I assume is what you refer to as the “long term success” of these.

From what I’ve seen people tend to be happy to take the money and they just burn it next year.

Re: Study: Carbon offsets aren’t doing their job, overstate impact

#140
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to end capitalism, and anybody taking this stuff seriously knows that, and they knew carbon offset nonsense was fraudulent the entire time. It was painfully obvious. So what's next? Another fraudulent scheme, because the only other option is socialism.

Yeah China is definitely the paragon to follow when it comes to CO2...

Did you think you were responding to something else? This is nonsensical as a response to my comment.
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