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Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

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41–50 of 196 posts

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#41
post #33

Why isn’t it down 100%? According to the article, they’re in bankruptcy with way more liabilities than assets. Presumably the shareholders are getting wiped out.

the market sees a 13% chance of a favorable outcome

PSA: this is not how stock price works.

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#42
post #26

Having read the article but not heard of Evergrande prior to this, what are the implications of this outside of China? The article mentions that the company filed for bankruptcy in the US, but not what US operations/developments they had.

If only hedge funds. Big pension funds, universities etc are throwing millions (billions?) of private/taxpayer money into China in recent years. A housing market collapse would not be good news for any of them...

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#43

Why isn’t it down 100%? According to the article, they’re in bankruptcy with way more liabilities than assets. Presumably the shareholders are getting wiped out.

As I understand from this "The Plain Bagel" video [0], they're not bankrupt. Instead, they're likely nearing the completion of their debt restructuring.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-n6RN8a2Zo

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#44

Why isn’t it down 100%? According to the article, they’re in bankruptcy with way more liabilities than assets. Presumably the shareholders are getting wiped out.

Bed Bath and Beyond and Sears helped me realize that the cold eyes sanity of investors is often overstated. These were both bankrupt companies who developed stockholders with cultish beliefs around the company's ongoing viability.

With Evergrande, I imagine some people believe it might be important enough for China that it may someday get a bailout. I don't believe it.

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#45
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government needs to step in and investors need to write it as a total loss. Making people pay could collapse the entire economy.

Could someone key me in to this? I thought generally the Chinese government never shied away from stepping in and manipulating things. Recent trends (for example, the government blaming young people themselves for their low employment numbers) feels like they imported the bootstraps mindset from American politicians, which seems out of step with what was seen as them being rather direct in control of their economy. R…

So it depends on who’s holding the bag.

A lot of what counts as government spending is actually the central government telling provinces and cities to spend. Except those also have heavy debt burdens after years of stimulus.

Very little central government money is trickling down. And the problem is not just that the developers are out of money, but their contractors have not been paid for months, those contractors have not paid their suppliers or workers for months, and down the line.

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#46
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government needs to step in and investors need to write it as a total loss. Making people pay could collapse the entire economy.

Meh. I understand property is pretty much the only viable investment a person can make in China, but these investors should have known what they were buying. Makes me think of idiots that lost big in crypto. The bubbles value has already been spent, so someone is going to have to bag hold. Either the government should buy and forgive all the debt, or the investors should get fucked for overplaying their cards. Maybe…

The issue is that the bubble should’ve popped probably even five or ten years ago, but then the government allowed credit extension and the bubble kept on.

The recent hard lines, with no sign of easing after multiple defaults, is a new thing.

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#47
post #26

Having read the article but not heard of Evergrande prior to this, what are the implications of this outside of China? The article mentions that the company filed for bankruptcy in the US, but not what US operations/developments they had.

A lot of the loans they took out were in dollars, so somebody abroad is now out a bunch of dollars.

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#48
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, caveat emptor but you can't exactly dunk on capital inflows consequence free.

A truly developing nation can't, the economic powerhouse of the 21st century has a lot more latitude in this respect. As long as not every single investment in it goes tits up, there won't be any shortage of dumb FOMO money chasing growth. (Look at the mountains of money piled into straight-up obvious crypto scams, at least China is full of real companies that are doing real business[1], even if sometimes that busine…

There's a lot of corporate scams in China that gets swept under the rug. That's not a validation of China's model of growth, it just postpones the pain, like Japan's lost decade. And Japan was a lot more developed when its real estate bubble popped.

China has experienced the catch-up growth that it missed out on after 1949 in the past 3 decades or so. The trajectory of growth is less than for example, South Korea or Japan. The big difference being that China has more people.

Re: Evergrande shares plunge as much as 87% as trading resumes after 17 months

#50
post #49

Can someone explain to me why is this problem? The houses that they've built are still standing, people can still live in them, what's the problem?

Presumably the speculated value exceeds the value of the physical houses.
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