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AI demand is already shrinking

honest-broker.com

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Re: AI demand is already shrinking

#111

Post by distant_hat »

phreeza wrote: post #109
distant_hat wrote: post #21

I feel this might be more of a mild 'Trough of disillusionment' in the hype cycle than a real shrinking of demand. The other thing with ChatGPT specifically is that during really high usage times, its usability was impacted, so may have driven off some users. Also, ChatGPT has been RLHFed to death. Outside of regular corporate or homework like use cases, the output often feels bland and overspiced with adjectives. I…

This meme that models are (mainly) hindered by the constraints on political correctness is really tiring. The alignment tax to get that is really not that huge, and what are the use cases enabled by not having it? Kinky roleplay dialogues? The real thing holding back these models IMO is more fundamental stuff like truthfulness and reasoning capabilities.

The vast majority of people don't care about truthfulness which ChatGPT doesn't care about anyway. Entertainment is a way bigger driver of usage than utility.

Re: AI demand is already shrinking

#112

Post by phreeza »

distant_hat wrote: post #111
phreeza wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This meme that models are (mainly) hindered by the constraints on political correctness is really tiring. The alignment tax to get that is really not that huge, and what are the use cases enabled by not having it? Kinky roleplay dialogues? The real thing holding back these models IMO is more fundamental stuff like truthfulness and reasoning capabilities.

The vast majority of people don't care about truthfulness which ChatGPT doesn't care about anyway. Entertainment is a way bigger driver of usage than utility.

That's the first time I hear that the main current and future use for chatgpt is entertainment.

Re: AI demand is already shrinking

#113

Post by candiodari »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #90
zepearl wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I was initially sceptical, then wowed, then stopped using it entirely... Similar as well in my case. I think that my problem is that the core of its answers are extremely confident, and it's personally hard for me to switch into the "doubt"-mode when I read such a confident reply. I still use it, but very very rarely, and only when I'm desperate to get at least some hints (and I'm therefore psychologically ready to…

I feel it's really problematic in a bureaucratic environment. AI won't have any compunction about making a false claim. But a bureaucrat has to stick their neck out to say, yeah no that's ridiculous. And also it's easy for AI make an authoritative sounding accusation and then the system to demand the victim be able to prove a negative.

You know, people keep repeating this claim. And then you ask "now give me an example of a bureaucrat being punished by a judge, either by jail time or fine or damages" (they're, after all, mostly personally liable)

And somehow, very, very, very few such examples are available.

The reverse, however, for example Police officers getting away with sometimes literally murder, or using surveillance powers on ex-girlfriends, or beating up people without justification, or ... But equally less serious offences like government workers threatening people coming in going unpunished. That you hear all the time.

Re: AI demand is already shrinking

#114

Post by candiodari »

Not such an "honest" broker:

1) "Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute", the source of the 72% number, is an organisation created for one reason only: to regulate AI. It publishes a poll and claims voters want it regulated. I'm skeptical.

2) "US federal court rules that AI work cannot be copyrighted" - Not really, the Federal court ruled that the AI itself cannot own the copyright for a work. You have to be human to hold copyright. The same decision said that you can own copyright to AI-created works: you or me or any company can own the copyright for a work produced by an AI just fine. A program, however, cannot.

3) Ok, perhaps true ... not sure how it matters either way

4) Newspaper losing all of it's income that have sued every tech company for income (G, FB, Amazon) also thinking about suing OpenAI ... 8th wonder of the world, that one

5) 6) AI is getting worse at Math and "becoming a sycophant" is just wrong

7) Universal Music, famous for suing half of America's teenagers during the mp3 craze, wants to sue "AI" ... Pretty sure they want to sue my cat too

Re: AI demand is already shrinking

#115

Post by Gibbon1 »

candiodari wrote: post #113
Gibbon1 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel it's really problematic in a bureaucratic environment. AI won't have any compunction about making a false claim. But a bureaucrat has to stick their neck out to say, yeah no that's ridiculous. And also it's easy for AI make an authoritative sounding accusation and then the system to demand the victim be able to prove a negative.

You know, people keep repeating this claim. And then you ask "now give me an example of a bureaucrat being punished by a judge, either by jail time or fine or damages" (they're, after all, mostly personally liable) And somehow, very, very, very few such examples are available. The reverse, however, for example Police officers getting away with sometimes literally murder, or using surveillance powers on ex-girlfriends…

I suggest talking to non law enforcement bureaucrats. The reason you see few examples is because it's rare for a bureaucrat at least in the US to do anything outside the box.

Re: AI demand is already shrinking

#116

Post by Grimblewald »

suby wrote: post #28

This article paints an overly negative picture. It's fairly obvious that AI is only going to improve from where it's at today, and the hyperbolic language about no one caring makes me less inclined to believe that the author is attempting to paint an honest picture. I derive immense value out of Gpt4 as an aid for coding, a search engine replacement that accepts open ended questions, a writing aid, etc. I know someon…

Absolutely, combine this with things like AI that describe videos? We haven't even begun to milk what these LLM can offer. From mass surveillance to easing every day burdens anything that handles messy information has potential for improvement and its a long time before all the possible improvements have been implemented.
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