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Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

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Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#21

Post by piloto_ciego »

version_five wrote: post #3

Not that I disagree, but as I've said before, it's easy to be a theoretical contrarian, as in claim something is BS but not stake anything on it or profit from it (other than book deals). We're in a housing bubble, at the peak of a multi-century economic mega-cycle, we're overdue for earthquakes, tsunamis, asteroids, the caldera under Yellowstone, flu pandemics, etc etc. It's super easy to say all that and demand peo…

Being a pessimist is academically safe and intellectually lazy.

If you’re wrong in your predictions nobody cares because it’s better than if you’re right.

On the other hand, if you’re an optimist and you are wrong you look like an idiot and the social penalty is higher.

So people continue to predict doomsday and most of the time it doesn’t happen.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#22

Post by gen220 »

Someone1234 wrote: post #8

The key way I try to distinguish "Snake Oil" is: Is anyone actually using this routinely , and are the problems it solves self-evident to new non-zealot users after a demo? Take blockchain for example; people spent years and millions of dollars looking for additional usages for the technology beside coins/coin-contracts; and aside from the forementioned usages it didn't really gain routine adoption. That was why the…

Are people durably achieving a competitive advantage through the GPT?

I think we've seen some people striving for a competitive advantage, and willing to see one exist, but I don't know if we've seen any "AI company" turn a meaningful and durable profit yet (open to being wrong on this).

To me (so far), it seems like GPT use cases that apply it as a table stakes feature of some greater application (rather than an ecosystem or a platform), are the ones that are actually showing promise in terms of expected utility + value capture.

If GPT4+ level engines become as cheap to execute as a SQLite query, I think that's where things get interesting (you can start executing this stuff at the edge).

But I still can't see new companies (a la OpenAI, MidJourney, etc.) making a lot of money in this scenario, it seems to overwhelmingly favor companies that already have distribution.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#23

Post by TuringNYC »

viscanti wrote: post #15
TuringNYC wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another test is whether kids use it w/o being forced to. My kids are obsessed with both MidJourney and ChatGPT. They have found use cases w/o any profit motive and w/o any outside pressure. No amount of Blockchain "Webinars" would have convinced my kids to use the blockchain.

If blockchain did fulfill the claims of it revolutionizing the world of finance, it's still unlikely your kids would have become obsessed and regular users of it. If room temperature and pressure superconducting or nuclear fusion became viable, your kids might also be unlikely to play around with them on their own. Kids apparently love Roblox and most adults think the metaverse is dead. What kids like seems pretty or…

Point taken, but how about these:

- My mom cant figure out Blockchain either

- My sister (doctor) and brother (3 degrees) cant figure out Blockchain either, because they are too afraid of scanning the wrong QR code and having their balance drained

My mom, sister, and brother all use ChatGPT. My brother uses it actively for work.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#24

Post by skepticATX »

Someone1234 wrote: post #8

The key way I try to distinguish "Snake Oil" is: Is anyone actually using this routinely , and are the problems it solves self-evident to new non-zealot users after a demo? Take blockchain for example; people spent years and millions of dollars looking for additional usages for the technology beside coins/coin-contracts; and aside from the forementioned usages it didn't really gain routine adoption. That was why the…

The authors specifically state that they do not think that GenAI is snake oil. You can’t legitimately argue that it is.

On the other hand, I’m not sure that you can legitimately argue that it is not over-hyped. The only way that it isn’t is if we achieve “singularity” imminently - because that it is what a sizable number of people, including possibly some people at OpenAI, are actually expecting.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#25

Post by numpad0 »

TuringNYC wrote: post #14

Everyone should read this Reddit comment: https://www.reddit.com/r/blender/comments/121lhfq/i_lost_eve... This is happening, and the reddit thread is just a single instance of a wide phenomenon. I wonder how one can square "snakeoil" theories against reality like this.

Maybe the reality isn't evenly distributed. I'm supposedly at the working end of that job and can't immediately recall seeing the result of that transition.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#26

Post by atleastoptimal »

My hypothesis is that a lot of high-status intellectuals are reflexively dismissing AI out of fear that it threatens their status, as AI poses to turn intellectual labor into a cheap commodity rather than the premium bespoke product they offer it as via their professorships, speaking fees and book sales.

Most criticism of AI has all the hallmarks of coping mechanisms. They seem to shift quickly between declaring it an ineffective parlor trick, and then say it's so good and effective that it poses a risk to the human spirit. There are a lot of legitimate criticisms I've seen, especially of OpenAI's potential regulation capture and misuse of models, but calling it all snake oil is hilariously naïve and seems more like a fear of change.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#27

Post by antoniuschan99 »

gen220 wrote: post #22
Someone1234 wrote: post #8

The key way I try to distinguish "Snake Oil" is: Is anyone actually using this routinely , and are the problems it solves self-evident to new non-zealot users after a demo? Take blockchain for example; people spent years and millions of dollars looking for additional usages for the technology beside coins/coin-contracts; and aside from the forementioned usages it didn't really gain routine adoption. That was why the…

Are people durably achieving a competitive advantage through the GPT? I think we've seen some people striving for a competitive advantage, and willing to see one exist, but I don't know if we've seen any "AI company" turn a meaningful and durable profit yet (open to being wrong on this). To me (so far), it seems like GPT use cases that apply it as a table stakes feature of some greater application (rather than an eco…

For programming it’s like an additional feature on top of Google. You can dump entire error logs, get correct syntax (i give it a 4/10 for accuracy though), and even dump your entire page of code if there’s a bug in it.

Yea the sql queries, string or array manipulation are better and fast than google 8/10 times because of the errors it generates.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#28

Post by YetAnotherNick »

jamilton wrote: post #19
TuringNYC wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another test is whether kids use it w/o being forced to. My kids are obsessed with both MidJourney and ChatGPT. They have found use cases w/o any profit motive and w/o any outside pressure. No amount of Blockchain "Webinars" would have convinced my kids to use the blockchain.

Not a great test, teens in the last few years sometimes get into crypto.

Only for the investment purpose by thinking they will get rich quick. I have never seen anyone using crypto other than that. Author specifically said not for profit.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#29

Post by lumost »

gen220 wrote: post #22
Someone1234 wrote: post #8

The key way I try to distinguish "Snake Oil" is: Is anyone actually using this routinely , and are the problems it solves self-evident to new non-zealot users after a demo? Take blockchain for example; people spent years and millions of dollars looking for additional usages for the technology beside coins/coin-contracts; and aside from the forementioned usages it didn't really gain routine adoption. That was why the…

Are people durably achieving a competitive advantage through the GPT? I think we've seen some people striving for a competitive advantage, and willing to see one exist, but I don't know if we've seen any "AI company" turn a meaningful and durable profit yet (open to being wrong on this). To me (so far), it seems like GPT use cases that apply it as a table stakes feature of some greater application (rather than an eco…

We're likely way too early to call this one. Based on current hardware trends, GPT-4 will run on your phone within 6-10 years. Right now, folks are feeling out the edges of what makes sense and what doesn't make sense at extreme R&D and opex expense. In 10 years, we'd expect the winners of today to still be winners and have great margins due to declining compute costs.

Granted, if you are spending 10x the future value of the product your are offering ... then even a 10x decline in compute costs won't get you where you need to be.

Re: Princeton ‘AI Snake Oil’ authors say GenAI hype has ‘spiraled out of control’

#30

Post by riku_iki »

lumost wrote: post #29
gen220 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are people durably achieving a competitive advantage through the GPT? I think we've seen some people striving for a competitive advantage, and willing to see one exist, but I don't know if we've seen any "AI company" turn a meaningful and durable profit yet (open to being wrong on this). To me (so far), it seems like GPT use cases that apply it as a table stakes feature of some greater application (rather than an eco…

We're likely way too early to call this one. Based on current hardware trends, GPT-4 will run on your phone within 6-10 years. Right now, folks are feeling out the edges of what makes sense and what doesn't make sense at extreme R&D and opex expense. In 10 years, we'd expect the winners of today to still be winners and have great margins due to declining compute costs. Granted, if you are spending 10x the future valu…

> Based on current hardware trends, GPT-4 will run on your phone within 6-10 years

they quantized model from 16 bits to 4 bits which was low hanging fruit, and looks like they can't quantize it anymore to 2 bits..

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