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Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

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Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#201

Post by fleischhauf »

edgyquant wrote: post #180
PheonixPharts wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is what having a monopoly looks like ! As someone who has been in the AI/ML space for over a decade, and even had an AMD/Radeon card for more than half of that, I can't help but feel that this is partially AMD's own fault. For many, many years it seemed to me that AMD just didn't take AI/ML seriously whereas, for all it's faults, NVIDIA seemed to catch on very early that ML presented a tremendous potential mar…

100% this. I, and many others, bought multiple AMD cards due to disliking NVidia and tried to get ROCm set up to no avail. It just never worked except under hard to maintain configurations. I switched to an nvidia card and within the hour import tensorflow just worked

to be fair Nvidia drivers are also a nightmare under linux

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#202

Post by csomar »

NickC25 wrote: post #3

Absolutely monster numbers. The aftermarket trading is up over 8% as of right now, roughly $41 USD to approximately $513 a share. Insane. Anyone who is a lot more versed in company valuation methodology see this as being near peak value, or does Nvidia have a lot more room to run?

I would not predict a peak if I didn't predict this rise (which most people didn't?). A new crypto that requires GPU mining, continued AI boom, GPUs being used for something else?, etc.. Their price could go infinitely up.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#203

Post by dekhn »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #124

What's also pretty interesting that they actually didn't sell more chips this quarter - they ... just pretty much doubled the prices (hence the huge margin). This is what having a monopoly looks like ! This is also why companies that manufacture their cards didn't report any uptick in profits. I'm wondering how this play out in some months ? Do they have any pricing power with respect to NVidia ? Or NVidia could just…

nvidia deserves their monopoly and it's in the US's best interest to let it continue.

the other companies have to up their game to compete with a company that has been executing well for 20+ years.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#204

Post by [deleted] »

tmn wrote: post #14
NickC25 wrote: post #3

Absolutely monster numbers. The aftermarket trading is up over 8% as of right now, roughly $41 USD to approximately $513 a share. Insane. Anyone who is a lot more versed in company valuation methodology see this as being near peak value, or does Nvidia have a lot more room to run?

Valuation fundamentals don't justify current prices. That said it could easily go higher (much higher). Passive investing has created a constant bid that has significantly distorted price discovery compared to pre passive era.

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#205

Post by panick21_ »

mkaic wrote: post #167
jbc1 wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly dont. I'm trying to think of what principle they could have meant with "This situation isn’t exactly a poster child for X" where X is any economic principle and coming up empty. Best I've got is "central planning". One firm being able to handily out perform others despite them also being both motivated and well capitalised lends itself pretty heavily towards markets being good, but I hardly think they were…

My impression was that they used "Efficient Market Hypothesis" to mean "the theory that free-market competition rapidly drives down prices and breaks up monopolies on its own".

> the theory that free-market competition rapidly drives down prices and breaks up monopolies on its own

You mean a theory that no economic school actually believes? Not even Austrians would sign that.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#206

Post by dekhn »

desiarnezjr wrote: post #194
Dalewyn wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What really strikes me is Nvidia's been working hard on doing practical work on their GPUs even just 10~15 years ago with PhysX, while both Intel and AMD just existed. Nvidia's dominance today is the product of at least over a decade of work and investments to make better products. Today they are finally reaping their rewards.

I remember meeting NVIDIA in the late aughts (2007?) first launching their CUDA efforts. Really the product was a re-branded 780GTX or whatever their high end gaming card was at the time more or less, but they already laid out a clear pathway to today (more or less).

I remember meeting with them in the mid aughts when they were first talking to HPC folks about using their cards for science. I'll never forget what the chief scientist from nVidia said. "What is the color of a NaN? That is, when you render a texture with a nan value, what does it look like? I'll tell: it's nvidia green."

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#207

Post by peter303 »

xnx wrote: post #25

The good new is that Nvidia's high GPU prices motivate everyone (Intel, AMD, ARM, Google, etc.) to try and tackle the problem by making new chips, making more efficient use of current chips, etc. For all the distributed computing efforts that have existed (prime factorization, SETI@Home, Bitcoin, etc.), I'm surprised there isn't some way for gamers to rent out use of their GPU's when idle. It wouldn't be efficient, b…

The larger language models now employ a trillion parameters. This is faster when memory and computing is tighter, not distributed. Cerebus's million core super-wafer addresses this.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#208

Post by dekhn »

xxpor wrote: post #142
vajrabum wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're in a data center and running large training jobs then RDMA over Nvidia Mellanox Infiniband cards over high speed ethernet (like 100GB) are used to ship coefficients around without having that transfer bottleneck in the CPU.

100 gig, that's considered cute nowadays. https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/new-amazon-ec2-p5-instances... 3.2 terabits.

I don't think that machine has a single nic with that bandwidth- I'd guess it's 8 400Gbps cards or something similar.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#209

Post by creer »

mholm wrote: post #9
NickC25 wrote: post #3

Absolutely monster numbers. The aftermarket trading is up over 8% as of right now, roughly $41 USD to approximately $513 a share. Insane. Anyone who is a lot more versed in company valuation methodology see this as being near peak value, or does Nvidia have a lot more room to run?

Nvidia is the pickaxe seller in a gold rush. Their valuation is very much tied to how big AI grows in the next several years, and how quickly competitors can arise. I could easily see them continuing to go up from here, especially if AI keeps on expanding utility instead of leveling off as some fear.

Very much so. Nvidia was lucky with the perfect sequence of video and compute farms, then cryptocurrency and model training, and now the model training direction is flowering into application (hopes) left and right. But they did great with their luck. And now they are yet again in the position of selling tools to soak up everyone else's capital investment power. They are still now (and yet again) at the perfect spot for a giant new market.

But that's still a high valuation - that is even if that new market grows to the sky, it's not clear that it can justify that new valuation.

Is Nvidia failing anytime soon? No. Is it the best investment you can find? That's harder to tell which is why the complaint of "very high valuation already". It's not in doubt that it's a great business. It's less easy to decide whether it's a great investment to get in right now.

But everything is relative a PE around 40-60 is NOT historically crazy high for the verge of a giant new market. And yet it is very high for a trillion dollar market cap. This is exciting: a trillion dollar market cap at the verge of a giant new market!

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for second quarter fiscal 2024

#210

Post by AnotherGoodName »

ripper1138 wrote: post #198
what_ever wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you add a little more color on what fundamentals is it overpriced? Have you looked at their QoQ growth (not even YoY) for last few quarters? I would say the stock price is just trying to keep up with the numbers they are putting out.

Their quarterly dividend is only $0.04 per share, total assets at 50B (vs 350B+ for other 1T companies), they cannot easily sell more chips and increasing price can only go so far.

A lot of stocks don't pay dividends at all. They are problematic with tax and theoretically the same benefit can be achieved with buybacks.
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