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Are jobs obsolete?

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Re: Are jobs obsolete?

#121

Post by GFischer »

speleding wrote: post #116
david927 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's exactly right. Recently Foxconn in China has started to replace some of its workers with automation. Think about that: when even low paid work in China can't beat automation, you have a problem. There used to be a place for unskilled/semi-skilled labor: factory work, travel agents, insurance sales people. It's what created the middle class. And it's gone. Now you have the owners of the travel web site making a…

If unskilled labor is no longer needed for factory work it becomes available again for other low cost service work. A century ago lots of families employed a nanny, a cook, a cleaning lady and a gardener. Perhaps we will return to that time.

There are some services with unlimited demand, like healthcare.

My guess is that the demand will switch to other services as well, like the nannies you mentioned and better education and other wealthy-person services: personal trainers, nutrition, leisure, party/wedding planners, clothing advisors, gourmet cooking. There will also be a lot of services needed for the elderly.

Of course, competition will be cut-throat, but those jobs that cannot be made more efficient or paralellized (those with a high amount of in-person involvement) will sustain the new middle class.

Re: Are jobs obsolete?

#122

Post by GFischer »

itmag wrote: post #102
jerrya wrote: post #10

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_Work The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era is a non-fiction book by American economist Jeremy Rifkin, published in 1995 by Putnam Publishing Group.[1] In 1995, Rifkin contended that worldwide unemployment would increase as information technology eliminates tens of millions of jobs in the manufacturing, agricultural and servic…

If productivity rises to an absurd degree, I think it makes sense to start having a citizen's wage / minimum guaranteed income: http://www.xamuel.com/ten-reasons-for-guaranteed-minimum-inc... Sure, a lot of people might just become layabouts doing nothing. But are they really doing much right now, by enduring crappy jobs that add marginal value? Other people might unlock vast reservoirs of creativity which would brin…

My country, Uruguay, implemented something like that ("Plan de emergencia"). And I don't like the results.

The problem is not that they're "doing nothing", it's that they're actively increasing their burden to the working society by having an unsustainable amount of children.

They're also REJECTING job offers (80% of those getting the emergency wage). And many of those job offers were for a good wage by local standards.

(spanish links)

http://elobservador.com.uy/noticia/214462/el-80-de-la-poblac...

http://www.mides.gub.uy/mides/text.jsp?contentid=14247&s...

It may sound fascist, but I'd like people to be able to support themselves before having children.

The idea of a citizen's wage sounds nice in theory, but implementation opens a big can of worms.

Re: Are jobs obsolete?

#123

Post by Drbble »

andyking wrote: post #96
rsheridan6 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example, as the article mentioned, the former toll booth operator could now repair the automated toll booth system. If the toll collector had the skills, or the ability or inclination to acquire the skills to do something like fixing automated toll booth systems, they probably wouldn't have taken a job as a toll collector.

And perhaps this is stating the obvious - but one ex-toll collector could efficiently repair and maintain 10, 50 or 100 toll machines. Just like those self-scanner checkouts at the supermarket, where you've got one guy supervising five or ten checkouts, where previously he would have had five or ten colleagues working.

Or you can open 50 checkout lanes and generate the same profit on the same staff a manual checkout, and have happier customers who have more time to exercise and increase caloric needs and thus buy more food, or have more time to earn money to spend on fancier food...

Re: Are jobs obsolete?

#124

Post by Drbble »

GFischer wrote: post #122
itmag wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If productivity rises to an absurd degree, I think it makes sense to start having a citizen's wage / minimum guaranteed income: http://www.xamuel.com/ten-reasons-for-guaranteed-minimum-inc... Sure, a lot of people might just become layabouts doing nothing. But are they really doing much right now, by enduring crappy jobs that add marginal value? Other people might unlock vast reservoirs of creativity which would brin…

My country, Uruguay, implemented something like that ("Plan de emergencia"). And I don't like the results. The problem is not that they're "doing nothing", it's that they're actively increasing their burden to the working society by having an unsustainable amount of children. They're also REJECTING job offers (80% of those getting the emergency wage). And many of those job offers were for a good wage by local standar…

Easy fix (logically, that is. Politically, nothing is easy). Have a US style "earned income tax credit" or "civilian conservation corps" where for folks get paid to work, and the government creates (productive, civil engineering and janitorial type) work if there is not enough private sector work,

Re: Are jobs obsolete?

#125

Post by GFischer »

Drbble wrote: post #124
GFischer wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My country, Uruguay, implemented something like that ("Plan de emergencia"). And I don't like the results. The problem is not that they're "doing nothing", it's that they're actively increasing their burden to the working society by having an unsustainable amount of children. They're also REJECTING job offers (80% of those getting the emergency wage). And many of those job offers were for a good wage by local standar…

Easy fix (logically, that is. Politically, nothing is easy). Have a US style "earned income tax credit" or "civilian conservation corps" where for folks get paid to work, and the government creates (productive, civil engineering and janitorial type) work if there is not enough private sector work,

Yes, I know it's a political problem not a logical one :( .

There's plenty of work available, on the second link above, Alberto Iglesias, the president of the Farmer's federation acknowledged that (losing the wage if you get employed) makes it very difficult to get labor to harvest fruit and vegetables. "Crews have been decimated at an alarming rate""

There's also a labor shortage for construction work, at wages above the country's mean, and higher than the "Plan de emergencia" wage, but of course, you don't have to work for that one, so that's the one people choose.

It also goes agains the link the parent posted, which was what I was partly refuting:

"a regular “paycheck” just for being alive, a paycheck sufficient to support basic human needs, with no means-test nor any rules on how it could be used"

Re: Are jobs obsolete?

#126

Post by mark_l_watson »

I get into friendly arguments with family and friends on the conservative and liberal side of things over this. While I believe that paying taxes partially to support people who can't work or can't get jobs is simply part of the cost of living in a (reasonable) civil society, I also believe that there has to be a strong incentive built into the system.

I believe that able bodied people and their families who don't have means of earning money should be supported in clean and safe tent cities and incentivized to put effort into accepting and working with training programs and education. Incentives might be things like cable TV, etc. in their housing.

No one should starve to death or go hungry in our country. People who simply don't want to work or accept training and education should get fewer perks in life, but should still have enough to be happy if that is the lifestyle they want.

All children should have good educational opportunities, including free meals at school if they need them.

Re: Are jobs obsolete?

#127

Post by marshray »

jcrites wrote: post #97
marshray wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PCs dropping from $10000 to $300 are not representative of almost anything about the last 30 years. Holding up PC prices or CPU speeds as an example of general economics is particularly contrived.

He did not say that the drop in the price of PCs was representative. He (successfully, I think) provided an example showing that a gain to productivity benefited everyone, not just the holders of investments. What is an example of an industry where gains to productivity don't benefit everyone? Gains to productivity in farming enable the price of food to drop. Gains to productivity in housing enable the price of housi…

I'm trying to be careful not to argue that "gains to productivity don't benefit everyone". My personal feeling is that probably sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't, but I haven't researched it enough to back that up.

Mainly I think discussions of any squishy data set carry a lot more weight once we throw out some outliers and general purpose computers are a definite outlier.

Food production in the US is one of the most heavily subsidized (i.e., artificially manipulated) sections of the economy.

Re: Are jobs obsolete?

#128

Post by datasage »

hpvic03 wrote: post #47
jerrya wrote: post #10

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_Work The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era is a non-fiction book by American economist Jeremy Rifkin, published in 1995 by Putnam Publishing Group.[1] In 1995, Rifkin contended that worldwide unemployment would increase as information technology eliminates tens of millions of jobs in the manufacturing, agricultural and servic…

It's not so impossible to believe. The objection I often hear (and I recall that this is PG's stance as well) is that as old jobs disappear new ones will take their place. For example, as the article mentioned, the former toll booth operator could now repair the automated toll booth system. So far this general idea has been true. Before computers existed as we know them, "computers" were people who did lengthy comput…

I agree with this. We have been able to absorb displaced workers because the economy had been growing at a rate higher than natural growth (population/inflation). But the us economy has matured, it is no longer growing dramatically as it once was. While some technological advancements can create new markets and growth for the economy; Many technologies are designed to address inefficiencies in the market or business processes which will ultimately result in a net decrease in employment.

Also, technology is also a poor business decision if it costs more than existing methods taking into account increases in productivity.

Re: Are jobs obsolete?

#129

Post by devs1010 »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #115
lucaspiller wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10%? Wow! Here in Ireland income tax is 20% on the first €32,000 and 40% above that. VAT (sales tax) is at 23%.

Ireland's quite weird in terms of tax policy internationally. We have supposedly low rates of income tax, high sales taxes and low corporate tax. Ireland also has more deductible than I've seen in the UK. I went looking for things I could use to reduce my tax bill (there's loads in Ireland), but there appeared to be no comparable tax reliefs available for me in the UK :(.

At those rates, income tax would also be higher than in the U.S., at least for most people

Re: Are jobs obsolete?

#130

Post by devs1010 »

lucaspiller wrote: post #95
devs1010 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we are taxed at consumption as well, I'm assuming you mean you want even higher sales tax than we currently have but no income tax? I have felt that the current sales tax of up to 10% in some places is already fairly high as is

10%? Wow! Here in Ireland income tax is 20% on the first €32,000 and 40% above that. VAT (sales tax) is at 23%.

In some places its lower, some places higher, I presume, but I've never heard as high as 23%, I think people here wouldn't stand for that, I presume there are much better social services in Ireland, which would be the benefit of higher taxation
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