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Apple Conference Call

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Re: Apple Conference Call

#71

Post by runako »

dkrich wrote: post #66
philwelch wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> at the rate of inflation that is likely to occur over the next several years Do you have a reliable source on this? > Typically I would think the beginning of a dividend program to be a signal that the company has hit an innovation wall and doesn't know what to do with its cash. I think this doesn't really apply to Apple because cash is going to continue to flow freely into it a ridiculous rate for the foreseeable…

> Do you have a reliable source on this? Yes- it's called the Federal Budget. When the US continually runs a deficit and prints money to make up the difference, that cash goes into the economy without any real output in GDP. That causes currency devaluation, and in turn, inflation. Towards the end of 2008, $700 billion dollars were injected into the economy while the US was in the midst of running a multi-trillion do…

I'd be curious to hear more about your inflation expectations. Specifically, why Krugman et. al. are incorrect in arguing that the economics of stimulus work differently in a depressed economy (or why you think the diagnosis of the US as a depressed economy is incorrect).

Also, I'd be curious as to why you think this didn't happen in Japan, and what are the critical differences in the US that will cause inflation here.

I'm curious because I hear the "inflation must come" argument often, but I haven't heard it squared against Krugman and Japan. I'm not an expert, so any guidance would help my understanding.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#73

Post by marquis »

twoodfin wrote: post #70
marquis wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until the towns and cities that grown up around new industries bloom and generate wealth? I was listening to a radio interview where an the idea was discussed where GDP should be decommissioned for GDE: gross domestic environment, where wealth is determined on the general health of your people and natural resources. Then I would have no problem with day-traders making money hand over fist because a new forest preserv…

A public transport system powered by rainbows, no doubt. I have no idea what you're suggesting, practically. Wealth isn't "determined" by some arbitrary choice of economic statistic. Wealth is a store of value to the person who owns it. If you value forest preserves there are organizations who will happily take your money to create and expand them for you.

>Wealth is a store of value to the person who owns it

Which is presently accurately measured by our fiat system? Were the Dutch crazy to base their early stock market on tulip bulbs? Considering a historical perspective I don't see what's so different about choosing 'how many trees I have in my forest' vs. 'how much gold I have'. There are perfectly measurable elements in a human/humane society to base wealth off, especially as measuring technology improves. Maybe I should get better interest returns if I go for a decent 20 minute jog every day? I don't see why our future can't be one of measuring wealth on something else entirely (and yes I am being glib about using forests and jogging as an example but I think we're all clever enough to figure something out).

Re: Apple Conference Call

#74

Post by ksec »

Buying Back Stocks or Dividend doesn't do any good for Apple, Apart from its shareholders.

I am thinking on Worldwide Data Carrier Network. But Apple doesn't own ANY frequency spectrum. And there isn't a single worldwide common Whitespace for them to use.

Buying Intel isn't out of reach. You only need 51% of Intel Stocks. And Apple can afford that. IT fits them in many ways. And i think Intel is pretty cheap for its price in terms of investment.

Although i doubt that is realistically possible.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#75

Post by jonhendry »

jaysonelliot wrote: post #65

Of all the speculation I've heard, my favorite is this bit of dreaming from TheNextWeb: "Then there is the chance that Apple has decided to do something insanely revolutionary with its cash: figure out a factory template that will allow it, and other tech companies, to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.. This is right up CEO Tim Cook’s alley, as COO, he completely reinvented Apple’s manufacturing and supply chain.…

The NeXT factory was mostly robots, so I'm not sure what the benefit to the US would be, in terms of jobs.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#76

Post by cageface »

philwelch wrote: post #52
cageface wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything Apple seems to be moving away from Intel chips and emphasizing their own ARM designs. Much more likely they will release an ARM-based laptop.

Nope--running x86 software natively (see: Windows, Linux) is still a competitive necessity. If Apple wanted their laptops to run on embedded-class processors with an x86-incompatible ISA and no other venders than themselves, they would have stayed with PowerPC.

I don't expect Apple to abandon x86 any time soon but I would not be at all surprised to see them bring out an ARM-based Macbook Air with fantastic battery life and no heat. Most laptop users have their CPUs idling 80-90% of the time as it is.

I don't see any upsides for them in an Intel acquisition.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#77

Post by twoodfin »

marquis wrote: post #73
twoodfin wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A public transport system powered by rainbows, no doubt. I have no idea what you're suggesting, practically. Wealth isn't "determined" by some arbitrary choice of economic statistic. Wealth is a store of value to the person who owns it. If you value forest preserves there are organizations who will happily take your money to create and expand them for you.

>Wealth is a store of value to the person who owns it Which is presently accurately measured by our fiat system? Were the Dutch crazy to base their early stock market on tulip bulbs? Considering a historical perspective I don't see what's so different about choosing 'how many trees I have in my forest' vs. 'how much gold I have'. There are perfectly measurable elements in a human/humane society to base wealth off, es…

I just have no idea what you're suggesting. It seems incoherent to me. You value what you value, I value what I value, and money and markets are how we exchange things we value less for things we value more.

If you want to start a bank that pays people better interest rates for running every day, what's stopping you?

Re: Apple Conference Call

#78

Post by dkrich »

beatle wrote: post #48
dkrich wrote: post #40

I think a dividend is imminent because at the rate of inflation that is likely to occur over the next several years, holding that much cash is a huge mistake. If there isn't a use for it in the long-term, and they can reasonably expect to print more, I agree that they should start dispersing it to shareholders. Typically I would think the beginning of a dividend program to be a signal that the company has hit an inno…

>at the rate of inflation that is likely to occur over the next several years, holding that much cash is a huge mistake Actually majority of Apple's cash is invested in long-term and short-term securities so they are protected from inflation. I don't think Apple will pay a dividend. 1. the Massive increase in Apple's stock price is more than enough compensation for shareholders. A dividend will just be drop in the bu…

Well, looks like we were both right.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#79

Post by dkrich »

runako wrote: post #71
dkrich wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you have a reliable source on this? Yes- it's called the Federal Budget. When the US continually runs a deficit and prints money to make up the difference, that cash goes into the economy without any real output in GDP. That causes currency devaluation, and in turn, inflation. Towards the end of 2008, $700 billion dollars were injected into the economy while the US was in the midst of running a multi-trillion do…

I'd be curious to hear more about your inflation expectations. Specifically, why Krugman et. al. are incorrect in arguing that the economics of stimulus work differently in a depressed economy (or why you think the diagnosis of the US as a depressed economy is incorrect). Also, I'd be curious as to why you think this didn't happen in Japan, and what are the critical differences in the US that will cause inflation her…

I'm not sure what Krugman was referring to, but I'm guessing he was making the case that because people tend to not spend money as freely in a depressed economy, that the risk of inflation or hyperinflation is mitigated to an extent. Effects of inflation become exacerbated when there is an acceleration in spending, whether it be on goods or currency or commodities, because nobody wants to hold the currency. For the past few years, this hasn't been a problem because people are scared and seeking safe havens, which is how most people view the dollar. This doesn't change the underlying fundamentals.

Here's the thing- there is a fundamental law in economics called supply and demand. Nobody, not the US, nor Japan is immune to it. If you increase the supply of something, and there is not a corresponding increase in demand, that thing becomes less valuable. In the US there has been an enormous increase in the money supply with no corresponding increase in real output. That makes the money circulating in the economy less valuable. Whether the costs of goods go up today, tomorrow, next week, or three years from now is somewhat immaterial. All of the evidence is in place that at some point the costs of goods will almost certainly go up, unless there is a shift in demand or a decrease in the money supply.

EDIT: Now we see that Apple is going to be dumping $45 billion into the economy. Not a good signal of strength for the dollar.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#80

Post by trimbo »

gwright wrote: post #63
trimbo wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the value of Fidelity's Apple stock would go down by $2.6 billion. That's not what happened with Microsoft did a one-time dividend of $30bn. On July 19th, 2004, their stock price was 27.94. They announced it on July 20, 2004. The stock closed on 28.86 on July 21. The stock ran up to almost $30, and the day of the dividend dropped to 27.39. On July 19th, their value was $301.7bn On November 15th, it was $297.8bn.…

When I look at this graph: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=microsoft+market+cap+no... I see that the market cap for Microsoft dropped by about $30bn on the ex-dividend day.

Yes, but my point was from the date they announced to the date they did it, the stock had run up enough to counter that.
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