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Apple Conference Call

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Re: Apple Conference Call

#61

Post by trimbo »

gwright wrote: post #19
trimbo wrote: post #13

Dividend, book it. Major shareholders are probably getting antsy about it. Just an example, if they paid out $50bn in a one time divvy, Fidelity would get around $2.6 billion.

And the value of Fidelity's Apple stock would go down by $2.6 billion. The $100 billion in cash is currently factored into the share price. Dispurse the cash and the market will discount the share price to match. Personally I'm hoping for something more interesting than a special dividend. It does seem strange to have the announcement before the trading day begins though. I would think any big announcement would come…

And the value of Fidelity's Apple stock would go down by $2.6 billion.

That's not what happened with Microsoft did a one-time dividend of $30bn. On July 19th, 2004, their stock price was 27.94. They announced it on July 20, 2004. The stock closed on 28.86 on July 21. The stock ran up to almost $30, and the day of the dividend dropped to 27.39.

On July 19th, their value was $301.7bn

On November 15th, it was $297.8bn.

(Numbers computed by Wolfram Alpha.. kaching!)

Believe it or not, there is value in ongoing dividends that makes "Fidelity's Apple stock would go down by $2.6" incorrect. Income funds, for example, would not buy Apple right now because it's not a "yield" stock. If they pay a dividend, those funds can then buy it under their prospectus. This opens up the overall pool of buyers for the stock and can stabilize and even raise the value over time.

(edit: formatting)

Re: Apple Conference Call

#62

Post by squidsoup »

protomyth wrote: post #27
culturestate wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only major software company I can fathom Apple buying is Adobe, and even in that case there'd have to be a seismic shift in Apple's strategy.

If they bought Adobe, then the enterprise marketing at Apple would really be in for a change (Adobe has some big enterprise offerings). AMD / ATI is easily in their range.

Adobe have been actively downsizing their enterprise offerings and refocusing on media.

“Adobe has made a decisive choice to move away from traditional enterprise software markets and to focus on digital marketing and media. It will also shift aggressively to a cloud delivery model. These moves follow an August 2011 message to customers that Adobe would no longer update LiveCycle Content Services ES2. These actions signal that LiveCycle Process Management ES2 and LiveCycle Content Services ES2 are no longer important to the company’s strategic direction.” http://www.gartner.com/id=1850714

Re: Apple Conference Call

#63

Post by gwright »

trimbo wrote: post #61
gwright wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the value of Fidelity's Apple stock would go down by $2.6 billion. The $100 billion in cash is currently factored into the share price. Dispurse the cash and the market will discount the share price to match. Personally I'm hoping for something more interesting than a special dividend. It does seem strange to have the announcement before the trading day begins though. I would think any big announcement would come…

And the value of Fidelity's Apple stock would go down by $2.6 billion. That's not what happened with Microsoft did a one-time dividend of $30bn. On July 19th, 2004, their stock price was 27.94. They announced it on July 20, 2004. The stock closed on 28.86 on July 21. The stock ran up to almost $30, and the day of the dividend dropped to 27.39. On July 19th, their value was $301.7bn On November 15th, it was $297.8bn.…

When I look at this graph: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=microsoft+market+cap+no...

I see that the market cap for Microsoft dropped by about $30bn on the ex-dividend day.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#64

Post by xenophanes »

beatle wrote: post #48
dkrich wrote: post #40

I think a dividend is imminent because at the rate of inflation that is likely to occur over the next several years, holding that much cash is a huge mistake. If there isn't a use for it in the long-term, and they can reasonably expect to print more, I agree that they should start dispersing it to shareholders. Typically I would think the beginning of a dividend program to be a signal that the company has hit an inno…

>at the rate of inflation that is likely to occur over the next several years, holding that much cash is a huge mistake Actually majority of Apple's cash is invested in long-term and short-term securities so they are protected from inflation. I don't think Apple will pay a dividend. 1. the Massive increase in Apple's stock price is more than enough compensation for shareholders. A dividend will just be drop in the bu…

Amazon's PE is very misleading. Their revenues are much higher than their profits and can be monetized more in the future. They aren't trying to maximize profits, currently.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#65

Post by jaysonelliot »

Of all the speculation I've heard, my favorite is this bit of dreaming from TheNextWeb:

"Then there is the chance that Apple has decided to do something insanely revolutionary with its cash: figure out a factory template that will allow it, and other tech companies, to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.. This is right up CEO Tim Cook’s alley, as COO, he completely reinvented Apple’s manufacturing and supply chain. It also fits with the legacy of Steve Jobs’ vision of the NeXT factory, making products on U.S. soil."

http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/03/19/acquire-reward-or-rev...

Re: Apple Conference Call

#66

Post by dkrich »

philwelch wrote: post #50
dkrich wrote: post #40

I think a dividend is imminent because at the rate of inflation that is likely to occur over the next several years, holding that much cash is a huge mistake. If there isn't a use for it in the long-term, and they can reasonably expect to print more, I agree that they should start dispersing it to shareholders. Typically I would think the beginning of a dividend program to be a signal that the company has hit an inno…

> at the rate of inflation that is likely to occur over the next several years Do you have a reliable source on this? > Typically I would think the beginning of a dividend program to be a signal that the company has hit an innovation wall and doesn't know what to do with its cash. I think this doesn't really apply to Apple because cash is going to continue to flow freely into it a ridiculous rate for the foreseeable…

> Do you have a reliable source on this?

Yes- it's called the Federal Budget. When the US continually runs a deficit and prints money to make up the difference, that cash goes into the economy without any real output in GDP. That causes currency devaluation, and in turn, inflation.

Towards the end of 2008, $700 billion dollars were injected into the economy while the US was in the midst of running a multi-trillion dollar deficit. Taxes weren't raised, so that money came (an continues to come) from thin air. There is virtually no chance inflation does not steadily increase in the coming years. I can confidently say that because I see no reason to believe that there will either be a sudden burst in GDP to increase tax revenues, a reduction in spending, or an increase in tax rates sufficient to make up the difference. Remember, economic effects tend to lag. The mortgage crisis occurred after several years of irresponsible borrowing and lending.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#67

Post by swalsh »

gwright wrote: post #63
trimbo wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the value of Fidelity's Apple stock would go down by $2.6 billion. That's not what happened with Microsoft did a one-time dividend of $30bn. On July 19th, 2004, their stock price was 27.94. They announced it on July 20, 2004. The stock closed on 28.86 on July 21. The stock ran up to almost $30, and the day of the dividend dropped to 27.39. On July 19th, their value was $301.7bn On November 15th, it was $297.8bn.…

When I look at this graph: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=microsoft+market+cap+no... I see that the market cap for Microsoft dropped by about $30bn on the ex-dividend day.

whoa the power of wolfram alpha is amazing.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#68

Post by beatle »

jaysonelliot wrote: post #65

Of all the speculation I've heard, my favorite is this bit of dreaming from TheNextWeb: "Then there is the chance that Apple has decided to do something insanely revolutionary with its cash: figure out a factory template that will allow it, and other tech companies, to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.. This is right up CEO Tim Cook’s alley, as COO, he completely reinvented Apple’s manufacturing and supply chain.…

That would be the best use of their cash. but not the most capital efficient. Wall Street won't like it.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#69

Post by marquis »

beatle wrote: post #68
jaysonelliot wrote: post #65

Of all the speculation I've heard, my favorite is this bit of dreaming from TheNextWeb: "Then there is the chance that Apple has decided to do something insanely revolutionary with its cash: figure out a factory template that will allow it, and other tech companies, to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.. This is right up CEO Tim Cook’s alley, as COO, he completely reinvented Apple’s manufacturing and supply chain.…

That would be the best use of their cash. but not the most capital efficient. Wall Street won't like it.

Until the towns and cities that grown up around new industries bloom and generate wealth? I was listening to a radio interview where an the idea was discussed where GDP should be decommissioned for GDE: gross domestic environment, where wealth is determined on the general health of your people and natural resources. Then I would have no problem with day-traders making money hand over fist because a new forest preserve or public transport system was allocated.

Re: Apple Conference Call

#70

Post by twoodfin »

marquis wrote: post #69
beatle wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be the best use of their cash. but not the most capital efficient. Wall Street won't like it.

Until the towns and cities that grown up around new industries bloom and generate wealth? I was listening to a radio interview where an the idea was discussed where GDP should be decommissioned for GDE: gross domestic environment, where wealth is determined on the general health of your people and natural resources. Then I would have no problem with day-traders making money hand over fist because a new forest preserv…

A public transport system powered by rainbows, no doubt.

I have no idea what you're suggesting, practically. Wealth isn't "determined" by some arbitrary choice of economic statistic. Wealth is a store of value to the person who owns it. If you value forest preserves there are organizations who will happily take your money to create and expand them for you.

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