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China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

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Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#391

Post by somenameforme »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #323
somenameforme wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a crisis happening everywhere in the developed world. A stable practical fertility rate is 2.1. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world, below 0.8, and there was no government meddling there. The US fertility rate is also plummeting and now down to below 1.7 and heavily biased by income. The birth rate for households earning $200,000 [1] with a near perfect linear relationship for incomes in be…

South Korea had huge government meddling to psyop the population into thinking kids are only a burden. https://www.prb.org/resources/did-south-koreas-population-po...

Thanks. I'd never read nor heard about this. It seems similar to Iran - another country with a national birth control program [1], which worked far too well, and which very few people know about.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_planning_in_Iran

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#392

Post by Prickle »

keepamovin wrote: post #348
paxys wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are sharing the official written policy, but the reality on the ground is very different in China. Most business happens under the table. Corruption and bribes are commonplace in every transaction. Books are all fudged to a high degree. Millions of people who put up large deposits and made monthly payments for under construction houses to developers like Evergrande are never getting anything back, and laws aren't…

I don't mean to burst your bubble, but... this picture of a "house of cards"-economy, with "swindles all the way down", riddled Swiss-cheese-style with corruption, while indeed a Western populist idyll visage of China these days (a sort of Western-denialists wet dream of impending Chinese doom), is inaccurate, and I think, dangerous for folks in the West to believe, if they truly hope to compete with "their biggest s…

You appear to assume all of china's cities are either Tier1 or Tier5. That's not how it works in any country. Obviously, the higher tier cities look nice. But that doesn't apply to the entire country. You take one step into a lower tier city and you end up in what looks very similar to Indonesia or Malaysia.

That's not necessarily all the main government's fault either. The scale of the country means control is incredibly difficult. Which also happens to be part of the motivation behind the Social Credit Score that everyone brings up.

Honestly, it's actually quite surprising how similar the city tier dynamic appears to the relationship between Singapore/Malaysia/Indonesia.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#393

Post by futhey »

hnfong wrote: post #388
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, the reason the HK court gave for its judgement is not that Andrew Left lied or was touting fake numbers or anything like that, but the literal judgement is that “He had the right data but didn’t understand how the Chinese market was different from the West.”

I'm reading the raw report - https://www.mmt.gov.hk/files/Evergrande_Report.pdf It looks like Left's concerns were largely legitimate, but he wasn't familiar enough with the standard accounting and industry practices that the authorities were able to nitpick details he got wrong, and he probably used a bit of hyperbolic tone to describe the real concerns about the Chinese property market. The problems with the Chines…

He profited from the panic, not the eventual failure of Evergrande. So the court ruled in accordance with the intent of the law.

If they were legally insolvent back then and his information forced them to immediately declare bankruptcy, this short would have been above board.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#394

Post by keepamovin »

Prickle wrote: post #392
keepamovin wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mean to burst your bubble, but... this picture of a "house of cards"-economy, with "swindles all the way down", riddled Swiss-cheese-style with corruption, while indeed a Western populist idyll visage of China these days (a sort of Western-denialists wet dream of impending Chinese doom), is inaccurate, and I think, dangerous for folks in the West to believe, if they truly hope to compete with "their biggest s…

You appear to assume all of china's cities are either Tier1 or Tier5. That's not how it works in any country. Obviously, the higher tier cities look nice. But that doesn't apply to the entire country. You take one step into a lower tier city and you end up in what looks very similar to Indonesia or Malaysia. That's not necessarily all the main government's fault either. The scale of the country means control is incre…

Can you give some examples of these “lower tier” cities on the mainland? Also where would cities in Taiwan and Hong Kong occur on these scales? Also in the US, UK and Australia?

I thought I was treating it as an overall. I’m not sure I follow but it’s interesting. Anyway, the scale is massive and impressive. No?

My point.

Thanks for chiming in three days later I guess

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#395

Post by Prickle »

keepamovin wrote: post #394
Prickle wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You appear to assume all of china's cities are either Tier1 or Tier5. That's not how it works in any country. Obviously, the higher tier cities look nice. But that doesn't apply to the entire country. You take one step into a lower tier city and you end up in what looks very similar to Indonesia or Malaysia. That's not necessarily all the main government's fault either. The scale of the country means control is incre…

Can you give some examples of these “lower tier” cities on the mainland? Also where would cities in Taiwan and Hong Kong occur on these scales? Also in the US, UK and Australia? I thought I was treating it as an overall. I’m not sure I follow but it’s interesting. Anyway, the scale is massive and impressive. No? My point. Thanks for chiming in three days later I guess

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_city_tier_system

You can find the Chinese city "tier" classification system on wikipedia. It's not an official scale, but used commonly due to just how massive and varied the country is. Looks like the scale I remember isn't the standard, since apparently the most common one is ~4 tiers.

As for why I brought up the generalization; corruption is variable within a country. Corruption in China is rife, in part because of the population size. I am fairly sure you have heard of Tofu Dreg construction. That kind of corruption is barely noticeable in cities close to administration centers. (Such as Tier 1 cities. It gets cracked down on very quickly) The same does not apply elsewhere.

I just don't want to be too unfair to china with this. Most countries have corruption outside of the major cities and administration centers.

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