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China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

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Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#321

Post by f154hfds »

geysersam wrote: post #302
brigadier132 wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So punishing innocent people is justified?

Innocent in what sense? In China it's not always enough to not break a law to be innocent. You might also have to act in the spirit of the law (as interpreted by the CCP) to be sure to not become the target of the justice system. This is very different from the western system. But I think most people would agree that sometimes complete "rule of law" can also lead to perverse outcomes where very immoral business behav…

I think this misses half of the purpose of 'rule of law'. Some laws are to protect interest of citizens in the state and the state itself, sure, and in that sense the importance of 'spirit of the law' could be cultural. But the other aspect of law is minimizing surprise. Efficiency of commerce depends on a certain amount of consistency around laws. The more consistent the interpretation around a body of laws the more efficiently commerce can occur. In this sense relying on 'spirit of law' is wildly unhelpful because in order to understand legal cause and effect you have to read tea leaves, understand the leaders in office, etc. The west is not immune to this problem but we depart from strict written law to our peril.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#322

Post by jncfhnb »

busterarm wrote: post #271
cyanydeez wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their housing market was a ponzi scheme, in that they took money to build developments, but used that money to market new development. Local authorities got their cuts by rezoning areas. Very little likely escaped the country. It's all in country fraud.

Where do you think those local authorities spent their money? They knew the local housing market was no good. Even the things that did get built were Tofu-dreg projects. The bought real estate in the US and Canada.

Most of it they pumped back into the their own building and development market because of bad top level incentives. Hence the problem.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#323

Post by mensetmanusman »

somenameforme wrote: post #87
tjpnz wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government control over reproduction leads to unintended consequences? Who would've seen that coming?

This is a crisis happening everywhere in the developed world. A stable practical fertility rate is 2.1. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world, below 0.8, and there was no government meddling there. The US fertility rate is also plummeting and now down to below 1.7 and heavily biased by income. The birth rate for households earning $200,000 [1] with a near perfect linear relationship for incomes in be…

South Korea had huge government meddling to psyop the population into thinking kids are only a burden.

https://www.prb.org/resources/did-south-koreas-population-po...

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#324

Post by LeanderK »

geysersam wrote: post #302
brigadier132 wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So punishing innocent people is justified?

Innocent in what sense? In China it's not always enough to not break a law to be innocent. You might also have to act in the spirit of the law (as interpreted by the CCP) to be sure to not become the target of the justice system. This is very different from the western system. But I think most people would agree that sometimes complete "rule of law" can also lead to perverse outcomes where very immoral business behav…

I don't think the question was about the interpretation and specifics of the law but about the ethics. Wether an action is not unreasonable is also a question wether the action is should be a valid option.

We are playing a game about people after all.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#325

Post by oblio »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #317
oblio wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US doesn't do as much industrial espionage, I'm fairly certain of it. Why? The US just brain drains countries.

The US still attracts the best and brightest _better_ than other countries (on average, hence the net source/drain of brain).

So we're in agreement.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#326

Post by oblio »

throwaway4good wrote: post #310
oblio wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said allies. Those people you tell, in writing, signed by your highest authorities: if your people start dying at the hands of another country, our people will start dying with them. Talk is cheap.

China does not have allies in that manner.

Which is my point.

China doesn't have friends.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#327

Post by brigadier132 »

geysersam wrote: post #302
brigadier132 wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So punishing innocent people is justified?

Innocent in what sense? In China it's not always enough to not break a law to be innocent. You might also have to act in the spirit of the law (as interpreted by the CCP) to be sure to not become the target of the justice system. This is very different from the western system. But I think most people would agree that sometimes complete "rule of law" can also lead to perverse outcomes where very immoral business behav…

> In China it's not always enough to not break a law to be innocent. You might also have to act in the spirit of the law (as interpreted by the CCP) to be sure to not become the target of the justice system

So people that are family members and friends of fugitives are not acting in the spirit of the law and deserve to be punished?

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#328

Post by throwaway2037 »

throwawayqqq11 wrote: post #127
throwaway2037 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is clearly engaged in zero/negative sum economic warfare against China I suggest that you read the history of post war trade relations between US and Japan. It was a bumpy ride! One big difference: General adherence to IP laws (China does whatever they want), plus both are democracies. Related: Do you think China can catch-up to developed world in fab tech? I do not. They are hopelessly behind.

... ehem, taiwan.

Invasion or naval blockade? Your choice. Sure, for a few days, before multiple US carriers float into these waters. It won't last a month if it happens. You would have every high developed country in the world ready to support Taiwan in the event of an "unfortunate incident" with Mainland China. Plenty of people in the US are "itching" for a small military confrontation with M/C. If you think the support for Ukraine has been strong, it will be multiple times stronger for Taiwan, if only for economic (TSMC) reasons.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#329

Post by CP3f6kMA »

paxys wrote: post #279
wenyuanyu wrote: post #220

The Chinese government's approach to dealing with failing real-estate companies, including Evergrande, is distinct from typical Western bailouts. In China, the strategy often involves allowing such companies to default in a controlled manner. Given that the major lenders and banks are state-owned , this essentially means that the government bears the loss through these institutions (what else can happen anyway??) . A…

You are sharing the official written policy, but the reality on the ground is very different in China. Most business happens under the table. Corruption and bribes are commonplace in every transaction. Books are all fudged to a high degree. Millions of people who put up large deposits and made monthly payments for under construction houses to developers like Evergrande are never getting anything back, and laws aren't…

Any sources on this?

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#330

Post by throwaway2037 »

HWR_14 wrote: post #128
throwaway2037 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is really a breathtaking legal situation. Yeah, not really. They issued USD debt and chose NYC as the legal jurisdiction to make their bond more attractive to overseas buyers. There are probably a myriad of overseas entities involved. It is very unlikely this will spread back to Mainland China. Bankruptcy law typically trumps virtually all other laws, with not much to guide the court's discretion. No, sovereignt…

What CoCo bond write down? Or do you mean those special bonds bank issues that go to zero before any other assets during a run?

Thanks for asking. Yes, exactly right. To be clear, I needed to Google the exact meaning of CoCo bonds. It would better to say AT1 bonds.

Google defines AT1/CoCo bonds as:

    AT1 bonds are contingent convertable (CoCo) bonds that are designed to functon as both debt and equity.
More: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contingentconvertible.a...

BTW -- The writedown is incomplete. There are numerous court battles in numerous jurisdictions that may take 5-10 years to wind down. And, no, I don't think the Swiss Gov't will lose any of them. In the end, UBS will probably throw some pennies at these poor fools.

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