Live data from Hacker News

China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

cnbc.com

311–320 of 395 posts

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#311
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"China's sliding yuan could be next 'black swan event' for markets, hedge fund EDL says": https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/chinas-sliding-yu... It would be interesting to see the blast radius, specifically in terms of countries like Russia, which is becoming increasingly dependent on the yuan as it is exiting its relations with the West , huffing and puffing: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88926

> the blast radius, Global economy is the blast radius. China is the biggest economy by trade so it’ll ripple through everything

Could be, but the effects wont be so pronounced anymore i think. The biggest ripples have already passed through during covid and the time after.

The covid induced shortages like stock shortages, chip shortages, container shortage etc have already been dealt with and lots of companies have reduced their dependencies on china, etc…

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#312
post #2

Nice, creates corporation in tax havens to maximize tax dodging, files for bankruptcy in country that can actually put disgruntled debt owners to task. Good ol' capitalism.

The countries of Delaware and Nevada are some of the most desirable tax havens in the world, you know.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#313

The Chinese government's approach to dealing with failing real-estate companies, including Evergrande, is distinct from typical Western bailouts. In China, the strategy often involves allowing such companies to default in a controlled manner. Given that the major lenders and banks are state-owned , this essentially means that the government bears the loss through these institutions (what else can happen anyway??) . A…

> Given that the major lenders and banks are state-owned , this essentially means that the government bears the loss through these institutions (what else can happen anyway??) .

All major banks ( 'too big to fail' ) are state owned. The only difference between china and the US is that china's state also directly runs the government whereas our state hires out the running of the government to popular clowns. It's essentially the difference between owner operated business vs employee run business. But fundamentally, it's the same thing.

> To address these challenges, the Chinese government has enforced exit bans and placed these individuals under strict supervision. They are often required to return these funds to China, potentially under threat of reduced prison sentences. This sounds not right... but yeah... it is China.

What is so special about china here? 'Exit bans' exist everywhere. If you commit serious financial crime and are deemed a flight-risk, your passport gets seized and you are banned from leaving the country. This happens in every country but for some reason when china does it, it's deemed 'special'. And getting a reduced sentence for cooperating with the government is the norm everywhere. If 4 people commit a crime, it's basic strategy of the prosecutor to offer 1 of the criminals immunity or reduced sentence to testify against everyone else. Once again, what's so special about china? It's amazing that basic standard legal process is consider special just because china does.

> A full government bailout, in the Western sense, does not appear to be on the table.

There is a full government bailout or not. Nothing 'western' about it as if there is a common 'western' strategy about anything. Governments all over the world do full bailouts, controlled or strategic defaults or stay out of the issue depending on the severity and systemic importance of the situation.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#314
post #105
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moral hazard and inflation. If I know that I will be bailed out with a certain probability, then my actual cost of capital is much lower (since I am not expected to pay the entire volume of interest.) For instance: why not make the investors whole again instead by giving them the "printed money" instead of going through the middle-man of propping up these failed giants?

In the US sure, where its blasphemous to slit the throats of the leisure classes for their excesses. In China they made Jack Ma disappear. Through out history when it gets time for the Kings & Queens to waive the debt of the plebs away, cause they have nothing left to pay, the Rentier classes take the haircut. In the US the rentiers have owned the Kings & Queens for a long time. To the point where any American instit…

The ‘Jack Ma’s that are aligned with Xi have their corruption protected. It’s still politics.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#315
post #5

There are many real estate giants and so-called "trust" companies who are incapable of repaying debt right now. Some of these companies have trillions in RMB on their balance sheets. The central bank can bail them out but at the expense of the assets of the middle and lower class. This would only further incentivize cash hoarding, and tighten the middle income trap. It is not an enviable situation.

China will not be captured by the middle income trap because it has already escaped the middle income trap. The middle income in my opinion has a different reason countries get stuck there and its by design. Because the road to high income is protected by western IP protection. Patents are way for the west to forever license fees for their high end technology, China is beating the west in new IP generation and hence…

Um, no.

China killed itself off with its own policy of ‘for every two of us there should be one of us’.

Now their work force is shrinking and costs are rising fast. They aren’t competitive and the future is with India and Africa.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#316
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is still nominally governed by and accountable to the rule of law. Companies cannot use the court system in China to hold the government to account, the government is accountable only to itself. This difference is irreconcilable.

> The US is still nominally governed by and accountable to the rule of law. You mean the rule of law that it imposes upon others that they didn't agree on? And they'll bring it up only when it's convenient. I'll say it again: Big countries will be big countries.

Law is imposed on others that don’t agree with it, that’s kind of the definition.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#317
post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that's true, it just means we're losing our edge. I'd say we're still tied, personally. Arizona and mainland China are both getting a TSMC plant.

The US doesn't do as much industrial espionage, I'm fairly certain of it. Why? The US just brain drains countries.

The US still attracts the best and brightest _better_ than other countries (on average, hence the net source/drain of brain).

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. I know the history; the US is absolutely ruthless against friend and foe in keeping its hegemony. And it has a long history of having its natsec apparatus integrated into its largest corporations. As for China "catching up": 1. China is indeed far far behind the US-controlled West if the criteria is purely Chinese designed and manufactured semiconductors using purely Chinese designed and manufactured equipment.…

TSMC 3~5nm is quiet dependent on Apple, Nvidia, AMD products also being able to reach Chinese consumers. Or else the economic off scale that makes using EUV plausible breaks down. With Europe going down the drain and American consumer having a tougher time to make ends meet. Losing the Chinese consumers might as well break TSMC.

That’s a really interesting point, it would be fascinating if China decided to block any products that used TSMC 4nm nodes and below in response.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#319
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a crisis happening everywhere in the developed world. A stable practical fertility rate is 2.1. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world, below 0.8, and there was no government meddling there. The US fertility rate is also plummeting and now down to below 1.7 and heavily biased by income. The birth rate for households earning $200,000 [1] with a near perfect linear relationship for incomes in be…

> Systems of social security, healthcare, and the general economy will just collapse under that sort of pressure. Maybe we could buttress them by all the 4x to 10x productivity gains that automation has brought us. [1] Maybe we could cut back on all the useless, extraneous, low-to-negative ROI shit we're doing. We have options, here, that don't require a population ponzi scheme. (Also, you can't be blaming this situa…

> Remember, just a few decades, when somehow, a single working adult could comfortably provide for a whole family? Why can't he, anymore? What has changed? We are more productive per worker, we have more workers participating in the economy, but somehow, you think we can't provide for everyone.

In Thomas Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century, he argues that the period you're talking about is an anomaly historically due to the postwar boom of an unscathed US, that many people take as the historical norm due to recency bias; no one alive today was alive in the 1800s or earlier to see just how unequal life among the poor and rich was. He argues that this inequality is the norm rather than the exception for what is happening today.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why NY Courts would provide this service to China. Do they get paid for it?

I am sure there are court fees and whatnot, but more importantly, a significant portion of the tax base in New York State and New York City comes from having a well developed and functioning legal/judicial/financial system, including the people working within it to produce predictable and “fair” results. I put fair in quotes because even though it is obviously subjective, clearly many entities around the world, inclu…

Fair means more fair than the alternative. The whole world suffers from the human factors.
Post reply on HN