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China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

cnbc.com

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Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#201

Post by throwaway2990 »

jacquesm wrote: post #187

This isn't necessarily super bad in its own right even though it is a very large company and it signals that some of China's big developers are under water. The question is whether it is a harbinger or the whole of it. If the former there will be a domino effect just like what happened in 2008, but hopefully more limited to China. I imagine that 'heads will roll' is more than just a figurative expression here, Xi & c…

The people are the ones who suffer.

Not the banks.

Evergrande sold homes that didn’t exist. People got loans from banks to buy those homes.

Citizens in China can’t file for bankruptcy. So even if they never get a home. They are in debt for life.

This is what you get living under the rule of the CCP.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#202

Post by baybal2 »

jacquesm wrote: post #187

This isn't necessarily super bad in its own right even though it is a very large company and it signals that some of China's big developers are under water. The question is whether it is a harbinger or the whole of it. If the former there will be a domino effect just like what happened in 2008, but hopefully more limited to China. I imagine that 'heads will roll' is more than just a figurative expression here, Xi & c…

[dead]

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#203

Post by Tade0 »

satvikpendem wrote: post #74
abwizz wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

not unlike star signs

Indeed, so not worth taking seriously. ND is a fun little observation though, when it does happen from time to time.

I have an uncommon name for someone of my generation and the net effect is that people would often take me for someone more sophisticated than I am in reality.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#204

Post by wenyuanyu »

jsiepkes wrote: post #21
dragonelite wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China will not be captured by the middle income trap because it has already escaped the middle income trap. The middle income in my opinion has a different reason countries get stuck there and its by design. Because the road to high income is protected by western IP protection. Patents are way for the west to forever license fees for their high end technology, China is beating the west in new IP generation and hence…

> It was never about money or trade it was all about keeping asians down and dependent. Thats way too much simplification. For starters there isn't a level playing field. Any Chinese company can start a company in the west but if a western company wants to start a company in China you can either start a "second class" entity (a WFOE) or if you want a level playing field with the locals you can use a joint venture but…

The previous mandate of a 50% joint venture in the automotive sector is outdated. Take for example Tesla in China, which operates without a joint venture. Similarly, BMW's Chinese operations are only 30% owned by a local entity, deviating from the earlier 50% norm. Despite certain industry-specific regulations, it's essential to recognize that China aligns well with its WTO obligations—a framework that the U.S. and other Western nations have both agreed upon and ratified.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#205

Post by gumballindie »

bohadi wrote: post #191

The 200$ billion hole in CN real estate is comparable in size to the SVB signature US banking crisis. In that case US treasury policy was a bailout for uninsured depositors who are wealthy supporters of the ruling blue party. Most of the underwater property developers are wealthy patrons of the ruling red party in China and will ultimately receive similar government bailouts. Privatized gains and socialized losses it…

Corporate socialism is much like communism. Both have in common a ruling caste that benefits from exploting the masses. Which is why we need something better than communism or capitalism. I am curious as to why we seem to have stalled political innovation. Are we stuck with variations of these concepts for the next couple milenia?

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#206

Post by NovaDudely »

jamesaurichs wrote: post #18

Some real estate related news from China: - Country garden, China's second biggest property company after Evergrande, missed a mere 22.5M payments for dollar denominated bonds. It is trying to restructure a $340B debt owned. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/chinas-government-... - Li Ka Shing, richest man in Hong Kong, just offered an immediate 30% off on his newest buildings for sale - One of China's bigges…

To soften this a little bit, and I mean a very little.

The youth unemployment numbers are hard to judge, could be right but it is hard to tell on the outside.

The fertility figures are a long term issue, China is not alone in that but something to keep an eye on.

Those import/export figures... now that is the the most telling of how the economy is fairing nowadays. For all the speculation I have heard for decades, that is the most alarming stat I have seen. That is where the rubber meets the road for an economy that is so depended on those things to keep society function vaguely well. Stay tuned...

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#207

Post by The_Colonel »

zpeti wrote: post #49
jimmySixDOF wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I heard someone on the radio recently speculate that due to the political climate China could prefer and produce a Japanese style decades long unwinding of economic bubbles vs a western style resolution through crisis. Of interest also was the level of Municipal debt and it's stratification between provincial higher default risks and a handful of real high flyers.

Except they will be doing this at a much lower economic situation than Japan. Japan still got to being a first world country, but then busted. China won’t get there.

Japanese demographics were also much more stable (even if low in general). China will have a much more dramatic demographic shift. The fertility rate was ~6 in 1970, ~2.8 in 1980 ... 1.09 in 2022. These strong generations will continue retiring, but there will be few young workers to replace them.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#208

Post by KirillPanov »

bohadi wrote: post #191

The 200$ billion hole in CN real estate is comparable in size to the SVB signature US banking crisis. In that case US treasury policy was a bailout for uninsured depositors who are wealthy supporters of the ruling blue party. Most of the underwater property developers are wealthy patrons of the ruling red party in China and will ultimately receive similar government bailouts. Privatized gains and socialized losses it…

It's not until the tide goes out that you see who was swimming naked.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#209

Post by bohadi »

gumballindie wrote: post #205
bohadi wrote: post #191

The 200$ billion hole in CN real estate is comparable in size to the SVB signature US banking crisis. In that case US treasury policy was a bailout for uninsured depositors who are wealthy supporters of the ruling blue party. Most of the underwater property developers are wealthy patrons of the ruling red party in China and will ultimately receive similar government bailouts. Privatized gains and socialized losses it…

Corporate socialism is much like communism. Both have in common a ruling caste that benefits from exploting the masses. Which is why we need something better than communism or capitalism. I am curious as to why we seem to have stalled political innovation. Are we stuck with variations of these concepts for the next couple milenia?

history is over!

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#210

Post by bohadi »

worrycue wrote: post #197
bohadi wrote: post #191

The 200$ billion hole in CN real estate is comparable in size to the SVB signature US banking crisis. In that case US treasury policy was a bailout for uninsured depositors who are wealthy supporters of the ruling blue party. Most of the underwater property developers are wealthy patrons of the ruling red party in China and will ultimately receive similar government bailouts. Privatized gains and socialized losses it…

This isn't their only problem though. Local Government Financing Vehicles are also having trouble servicing their debts - the only way they make money is leasing out land but the real estate sector had imploded. One of their biggest lenders, Zhongrong International Trust Co. also just failed to make payments. Their economy seem to be swimming in bad debt.

local and provicial governments really dont matter. they do their best to support and bid projects for national champions and siting direct foreign investments where competitive. the areas which outperform (do least bad) have their executive talent siphoned to the central government. as FDI has dried up in the global slowdown restructuring and local reforms are due. one idea is to heavily lean on consumption which is palatable to some. i dont see that the chinese (or the japanese) feel that is a tenable path however
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