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China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

cnbc.com

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Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#161

Post by tw1984 »

meowtimemania wrote: post #103

I’m never sure if news about China’s upcoming economic problems is written because such an event is actually coming or if the media writes it just for the clicks.

You can actual build a career by just keep predicting the upcoming economic crashes in China, e.g. Gordon Chang has been doing this for decades -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_G._Chang

his book is a great joy to read after 22 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming_Collapse_of_China

It is so laughable to the extent that many Chinese argue that those journalists and writers are paid by the CCP to brainwash the west to let people believe that China is not a real threat as it faces so many internal struggles. ;)

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#162

Post by dragonelite »

throwaway4good wrote: post #139
throwaway2037 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is clearly engaged in zero/negative sum economic warfare against China I suggest that you read the history of post war trade relations between US and Japan. It was a bumpy ride! One big difference: General adherence to IP laws (China does whatever they want), plus both are democracies. Related: Do you think China can catch-up to developed world in fab tech? I do not. They are hopelessly behind.

Yes. I know the history; the US is absolutely ruthless against friend and foe in keeping its hegemony. And it has a long history of having its natsec apparatus integrated into its largest corporations. As for China "catching up": 1. China is indeed far far behind the US-controlled West if the criteria is purely Chinese designed and manufactured semiconductors using purely Chinese designed and manufactured equipment.…

TSMC 3~5nm is quiet dependent on Apple, Nvidia, AMD products also being able to reach Chinese consumers. Or else the economic off scale that makes using EUV plausible breaks down. With Europe going down the drain and American consumer having a tougher time to make ends meet. Losing the Chinese consumers might as well break TSMC.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#163

Post by modo_mario »

dmix wrote: post #110
throwaway4good wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who all got seriously smacked down when they got too independent (from the Vietnam war to the Plaza accord).

Neither the Vietnam war nor Plaza Accords were about "keeping Asians down". Unintentional side effects is not intention. A very important distinction. Japan's recent Stagflation has plenty of obvious internal causes. Blaming the west for that is some weird cope. China is an expert at manipulating their currency and internal markets for global advantage. Countries reacting to China's top-down aggressive self interest…

>Japan's recent Stagflation has plenty of obvious internal causes. Blaming the west for that is some weird cope.

I don't think it extends so far since it's the 80's but I can see why one would blame the US there. Around this time Japan was forced to do technology transfers to the US, to have minimum marketshare in japan for US cars and semiconductors, to have unfavorable monetary policy.

That smells equivalent to being a vassal at gunpoint. Of course European countries helped pressuring and it being the cold war japan did not have much developed (or allowed alternatives) for it's export based economy even if it did have an army, more independence and a more varied political landscape.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#165

Post by vkou »

anovikov wrote: post #155
vkou wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Still, human history shows us that money always wins. Human history has shown us that whomever controls the army usually wins.

Still, you need money to control the army and keep it interested. Then there comes a choice of either being unable to do it because of not raising enough cash from society to make a sufficiently big army to keep population in check, being able to have better income they can have in civilian life; or doing it and ruining the competitiveness of the overall economy - like the good old Soviet Union. Now, in the post-indu…

> Still, you need money to control the army and keep it interested.

Making payroll is never an issue for a sovereign that controls a central bank that controls their own currency. You're completely missing the point, because you're thinking in terms of money. A country isn't a business, or a household, it doesn't budget in the way you think.

> Money is the force of reason, ignoring it comes at one's own peril regardless of the force one controls:

Money is a floating-value paper proxy for material wealth. When there's a shortage of material prosperity - when people aren't building stuff, that's when you get a problem. Your position has just as many ideological blinders on as the one you think you are making arguments against.

The USSR collapsed because it failed to provide material prosperity. China, by any metric you could measure, is wildly succeeding at providing that material prosperity. That is what the party is focused on, because that's what's going to keep them in power.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#166

Post by tremon »

OtherShrezzing wrote: post #129
blackoil wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is 90 billion USD shortfall. Assuming lenders will have to take some haircut the no. is big but not something that will break the economy!! am I missing some nos.?

The lenders in the Chinese housing market are mostly Chinese citizens. In modern China, rather than buying a house, you buy a promise of a house, then the house builder builds it for you. The house builders though have these huge debts, and they've been using money from new purchases to construct their backlog of homes. The $90bn outstanding is $90bn in outstanding housing construction, not just abstract debts to ban…

That sounds suspiciously like a pyramid scheme: the only thing financing the current construction are payments to new construction. How did they get into this situation? By continuously selling under cost, or perhaps by siphoning off profits?

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#167

Post by oreally »

jsiepkes wrote: post #21
dragonelite wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China will not be captured by the middle income trap because it has already escaped the middle income trap. The middle income in my opinion has a different reason countries get stuck there and its by design. Because the road to high income is protected by western IP protection. Patents are way for the west to forever license fees for their high end technology, China is beating the west in new IP generation and hence…

> It was never about money or trade it was all about keeping asians down and dependent. Thats way too much simplification. For starters there isn't a level playing field. Any Chinese company can start a company in the west but if a western company wants to start a company in China you can either start a "second class" entity (a WFOE) or if you want a level playing field with the locals you can use a joint venture but…

> For starters there isn't a level playing field.

Think about it, who determines what is a 'level playing field'? That's right, the US in this context. Every country has the right to determine it's own policies, and the US shouldn't have any say, and yet is applying pressure for it's own benefits.

The same goes when China insists on one-on-one bilateral country negotiations on the issue of the south china sea instead of multilateral negotiations.

Historically the number one country will always be putting pressure on potential the upstart countries, and Big countries will be big countries. The US especially is adapt at spinning up narratives, so calm down and take a look at the different perspectives.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#168

Post by dougmwne »

blackoil wrote: post #143
robjan wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Future generations have to pay off the debt generated by the current generation. Same as everywhere. You can either grow the population or make the economy more efficient, China still has the latter lever available to pull.

China has a gross savings rate of 45-50%. Current gen has saved for their future.

Money is an abstract representation of the labor of others. If there’s no one to labor for you then your currency is just paper.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#169

Post by lotsofpulp »

hulitu wrote: post #108

> China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan If it is "China’s property giant" why does it "files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan" ? Why not in China ?

Because the people who lent money to Evergrande did so on condition that the deal was subject to the US’, and specifically New York’s, courts. Presumably because they trusted New York courts more than China’s courts in the event of a conflict.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#170

Post by bombcar »

OtherShrezzing wrote: post #129
blackoil wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is 90 billion USD shortfall. Assuming lenders will have to take some haircut the no. is big but not something that will break the economy!! am I missing some nos.?

The lenders in the Chinese housing market are mostly Chinese citizens. In modern China, rather than buying a house, you buy a promise of a house, then the house builder builds it for you. The house builders though have these huge debts, and they've been using money from new purchases to construct their backlog of homes. The $90bn outstanding is $90bn in outstanding housing construction, not just abstract debts to ban…

This sounds ponzi schemic.
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