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China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

cnbc.com

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Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#111

Post by starfallg »

blackoil wrote: post #93
jskrablin wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It may work in short term but then you run out of population in long term. And suddenly any gains from short term improvement is under a big question mark.

Why does China need 1.5 billion people?

China has a poor social security net. The one-child policy has resulted in a couple having to provide or care for 4 parents and 8 grandparents.

That's is in no way sustainable on an individual level and worse on a societal level when you have a small working population and a large number of people that require care.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#112

Post by throwaway2037 »

jeswin wrote: post #65
tjpnz wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government control over reproduction leads to unintended consequences? Who would've seen that coming?

It's not automatically a bad thing. China has done fantastically well economically, and in terms of health care, education etc. There are other countries which have had strict population control and have done well economically - such as Singapore, South Korea. I see nothing wrong with poorer countries keeping restrictions on population growth - so that they can increase the standard of living and make sure everyone g…

    strict population control
SG/KR has this? Tell me more.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#113

Post by throwaway2037 »

zpeti wrote: post #49
jimmySixDOF wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I heard someone on the radio recently speculate that due to the political climate China could prefer and produce a Japanese style decades long unwinding of economic bubbles vs a western style resolution through crisis. Of interest also was the level of Municipal debt and it's stratification between provincial higher default risks and a handful of real high flyers.

Except they will be doing this at a much lower economic situation than Japan. Japan still got to being a first world country, but then busted. China won’t get there.

Why was this downvoted? There is plenty of truth here.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#114

Post by robjan »

jimbob45 wrote: post #43
midoridensha wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>- China's fertility rate dropped to record low 1.09 in 2022 >- China records fewest marriages in more than 3 decades Wow, at this rate, they might just overtake South Korea for lowest birth and marriage rates within the decade.

Wow, I thought you were making that up. It’s real. Why not just repeal the child limitations then? No reason to keep them in place if the rate is that low.

Chinese, especially in the upper tier cities, don't want babies now. Same as the West and for roughly the same reasons. Historically kids stayed with their parents until marriage who would then look after the grandchildren while they work. Now the parents are getting left behind in the villages or low tier cities while the kids fly out to the higher tier cities to work leaving no childcare structure and everyone grinding away at work with no time to find partners.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#115

Post by dmix »

throwaway4good wrote: post #86
oblio wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37171762

You can cherry pick negative news all you want. But if you a clear picture look at the aggregate for longer terms.

The article explains there are multiple signals which suggest we can't trust the growth numbers coming out of China. People have been ringing that bell for years. That still applies in aggregates and recent history.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#116

Post by jeswin »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #112
jeswin wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not automatically a bad thing. China has done fantastically well economically, and in terms of health care, education etc. There are other countries which have had strict population control and have done well economically - such as Singapore, South Korea. I see nothing wrong with poorer countries keeping restrictions on population growth - so that they can increase the standard of living and make sure everyone g…

strict population control SG/KR has this? Tell me more.

Had.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#117

Post by dmix »

hulitu wrote: post #108

> China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan If it is "China’s property giant" why does it "files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan" ? Why not in China ?

Companies open regional HQs all the time and they register corporations in those countries. Those are still technically independent legal entities with their own financial paperwork.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#118

Post by somenameforme »

jeswin wrote: post #65
tjpnz wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government control over reproduction leads to unintended consequences? Who would've seen that coming?

It's not automatically a bad thing. China has done fantastically well economically, and in terms of health care, education etc. There are other countries which have had strict population control and have done well economically - such as Singapore, South Korea. I see nothing wrong with poorer countries keeping restrictions on population growth - so that they can increase the standard of living and make sure everyone g…

A declining fertility rate doesn't just change change the population, but also the relative distribution of each age group. A fertility rate of "N" means the next generation will be "N/2" times as large as the one before it. Because of this you can easily model what a society, composed of successive generations of a fixed fertility rate, would look like. To keep things simple, imagine everybody gives birth to all their kids at 20. When they actually do doesn't matter, it would always converge on the same ratios:

----

Fertility Rate of 2 (average age = 40): 100 80-year-olds, 100 60-year-olds, 100 40-year-olds, 100 20-year-olds, 100 newborns.

Fertility Rate of 1 (average age = 63): 100 80-year-olds, 50 60-year-olds, 25 40-year-olds, 12 20-year-olds, 6 newborns

Fertility rate of 0.5 (average age = 74): 100 80-year-olds, 25 60-year-olds, 6 40-year-olds, 1 20-year-olds, 0 newborns

----

You can also estimate the ongoing population rate of change for each fertility group by removing the elderly generation, adding a newborn generation, and contrasting the new population sizes:

----

Fertility Rate of 2: 500->500 = 0% population change per 20 years

Fertility Rate of 1: 193->96 = 50% population decline per 20 years

Fertility Rate of 0.5: 132->32 = 76% population decline per 20 years

----

In the developed world most fertility rates plummeted around 1970. So, assuming nothing radically changes, we should start hitting our 'equilibrium point' about one life expectancy away, so sometime around 2050.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#119

Post by bobthepanda »

blackoil wrote: post #98
bakuninsbart wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a quick google Evergrande (officially) has 2.4 trillion Yuan in debt, and 1.7 trillion Yuan in assets. Assets seem to have lost more than 20% of their value since 2019. It is the largest one of the Chinese real estate developers, but there are a couple others that might break through the 1T Yuan mark.

That is 90 billion USD shortfall. Assuming lenders will have to take some haircut the no. is big but not something that will break the economy!! am I missing some nos.?

One is that apparently a bunch of suppliers and contractors for their projects have not been paid for a while, so those will default or go bankrupt as well, and cascade further down the economy.

The other thing is that Evergrande sold mostly through presales so now there are all those paid for but unfinished apartment blocks.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#120

Post by Tade0 »

tjpnz wrote: post #33
jamesaurichs wrote: post #18

Some real estate related news from China: - Country garden, China's second biggest property company after Evergrande, missed a mere 22.5M payments for dollar denominated bonds. It is trying to restructure a $340B debt owned. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/chinas-government-... - Li Ka Shing, richest man in Hong Kong, just offered an immediate 30% off on his newest buildings for sale - One of China's bigges…

Government control over reproduction leads to unintended consequences? Who would've seen that coming?

Truth be told they didn't have much of a choice, as it prevented around 400mln births in a country that has been a net food importer for over 20 years:

https://www.cfr.org/article/china-increasingly-relies-import...

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