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China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

cnbc.com

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Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#41

Post by _hypx »

irjustin wrote: post #12
csomar wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chinese stock market (Shanghai index) has been through lots of boom and busts. It didn't affect western market in the slightest. I'd not expect otherwise. The only difference is that if the Chinese economy tanks hard (great depression style), this might be contagious to the rest of Asia and eventually to the rest of the world. But any guess is good if that happens.

Agreed a crash in China would have fallout but not 08/09. The Chinese housing market was fueled by the familial need to own a house. Which led people to lead no matter what people would buy property, basically "stocks always go up"... "housing always goes up"... We can never run out of buyers!

The closest analogy might be the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#42

Post by FreshStart »

jamesaurichs wrote: post #18

Some real estate related news from China: - Country garden, China's second biggest property company after Evergrande, missed a mere 22.5M payments for dollar denominated bonds. It is trying to restructure a $340B debt owned. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/chinas-government-... - Li Ka Shing, richest man in Hong Kong, just offered an immediate 30% off on his newest buildings for sale - One of China's bigges…

Missing : real estate invested missing money into sprawling conglomerates. E-car brands and other industries.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#43

Post by jimbob45 »

midoridensha wrote: post #31
jamesaurichs wrote: post #18

Some real estate related news from China: - Country garden, China's second biggest property company after Evergrande, missed a mere 22.5M payments for dollar denominated bonds. It is trying to restructure a $340B debt owned. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/chinas-government-... - Li Ka Shing, richest man in Hong Kong, just offered an immediate 30% off on his newest buildings for sale - One of China's bigges…

>- China's fertility rate dropped to record low 1.09 in 2022 >- China records fewest marriages in more than 3 decades Wow, at this rate, they might just overtake South Korea for lowest birth and marriage rates within the decade.

Wow, I thought you were making that up. It’s real. Why not just repeal the child limitations then? No reason to keep them in place if the rate is that low.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#44

Post by BossingAround »

jimbob45 wrote: post #43
midoridensha wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>- China's fertility rate dropped to record low 1.09 in 2022 >- China records fewest marriages in more than 3 decades Wow, at this rate, they might just overtake South Korea for lowest birth and marriage rates within the decade.

Wow, I thought you were making that up. It’s real. Why not just repeal the child limitations then? No reason to keep them in place if the rate is that low.

If you're talking about the one-child policy, that has been repealed in 2016.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#46

Post by topper-123 »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #19
acyou wrote: post #9

There is a sort of balance where one market going down makes another go up. For example, real estate assets everywhere but China now look better in the long term. Bank crashing = money printing = asset values go back up. Can't lose.

> Bank crashing = money printing = asset values go back up. Can't lose. If you buy real estate right before a housing crash, you immediately lose a lot of money vs. having just sold or not bought it, and even if the prices recover in the long term it can take years. Meanwhile you can't refinance the loan at the new lower rates because you're underwater and no longer have the collateral for a loan that size. Then ther…

Yeah, if you buy a house when you have little equity, your equity can go up manyfolds from the purchase, but at the risk that if you time the purchase badly, you’re in a bad spot for many years.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#47

Post by [deleted] »

jimbob45 wrote: post #43
midoridensha wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>- China's fertility rate dropped to record low 1.09 in 2022 >- China records fewest marriages in more than 3 decades Wow, at this rate, they might just overtake South Korea for lowest birth and marriage rates within the decade.

Wow, I thought you were making that up. It’s real. Why not just repeal the child limitations then? No reason to keep them in place if the rate is that low.

[deleted]

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#48

Post by smallnamespace »

jimbob45 wrote: post #43
midoridensha wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>- China's fertility rate dropped to record low 1.09 in 2022 >- China records fewest marriages in more than 3 decades Wow, at this rate, they might just overtake South Korea for lowest birth and marriage rates within the decade.

Wow, I thought you were making that up. It’s real. Why not just repeal the child limitations then? No reason to keep them in place if the rate is that low.

They were repealed several years ago

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#49

Post by zpeti »

jimmySixDOF wrote: post #35
jamesaurichs wrote: post #18

Some real estate related news from China: - Country garden, China's second biggest property company after Evergrande, missed a mere 22.5M payments for dollar denominated bonds. It is trying to restructure a $340B debt owned. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/chinas-government-... - Li Ka Shing, richest man in Hong Kong, just offered an immediate 30% off on his newest buildings for sale - One of China's bigges…

I heard someone on the radio recently speculate that due to the political climate China could prefer and produce a Japanese style decades long unwinding of economic bubbles vs a western style resolution through crisis. Of interest also was the level of Municipal debt and it's stratification between provincial higher default risks and a handful of real high flyers.

Except they will be doing this at a much lower economic situation than Japan.

Japan still got to being a first world country, but then busted. China won’t get there.

Re: China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan

#50

Post by Scoundreller »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #30
irjustin wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed a crash in China would have fallout but not 08/09. The Chinese housing market was fueled by the familial need to own a house. Which led people to lead no matter what people would buy property, basically "stocks always go up"... "housing always goes up"... We can never run out of buyers!

If the comment above regarding a fertility rate of 1.09 is correct, then yes, you can run out of buyers, and are well on the way to doing so.

And like, zero immigration. A net emigrant country.
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