Earlier quoted context omitted.
That thought occurred to me but I couldn't find an ETF or an easy way to find the right companies. How do you go about it?
What I do is browse aimlessly through RH until see a tag like "Industrials". Then, I click this and I can see a list of like 50 companies that do all things yellow-square in sim city. It's like fish in a barrel if you have patience to sort through the information and type fake contact info into investor web forms to get at presentation materials. You definitely don't need a Bloomberg terminal subscription to do this…
A look into the finances of SpaceX
301–310 of 397 posts
Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX
#302Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can't compare falcon to SLS because Falcon cannot do what SLS does. You can't compare SpaceX's figures to NASA because NASA has many, many more reporting obligations than SpaceX. Every report on Falcon 9 costs has made this mistake forever. SpaceX does not release their full costs. What numbers we have for them are PR releases. Meanwhile, NASA's budgets are public and comprehensive, and they have legal parameters…
> Every report on Falcon 9 costs has made this mistake forever. SpaceX does not release their full costs. Not really relevant. The correct metric to make the comparison on is the fully amortized cost to the government per launch. The government doesn't pay for SpaceX's facilities or development - all of those costs are rolled into the launch price. But that's not true of SLS.
Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX
#303Earlier quoted context omitted.
Falcon rockets can't get to the moon. You need a lot more fuel to do that. That's why SLS and Starship are both being developed.
In 1990's Dan Goldin, the NASA administrator at the time, was looking for ways to return to the Moon for cheap. One of the least expensive variants which was presented included launching multiple Protons and assembling lunar exeditionary complexes on LEO. The quoted number at that time was $1 billion to put boots on regolith again. Falcon-9 is about as capable in terms of payload as Proton. And even without inflation…
https://space.nss.org/lunar-base-studies-1996-human-lunar-re...
hey avmich, thnx 4 the memories ;)
Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX
#304From Reuters... > In 2022, revenue doubled to $4.6 billion, helping the company reduce its loss last year to $559 million from $968 million, the WSJ reported. > The company reported about $5.2 billion in total expenses for 2022, up from $3.3 billion the year earlier, according to the report. That $5.2B of expenses got 61 successful, production Falcon rocket launches in 2022. Vs. some pretty-reasonable estimates put t…
You can't compare falcon to SLS because Falcon cannot do what SLS does. You can't compare SpaceX's figures to NASA because NASA has many, many more reporting obligations than SpaceX. Every report on Falcon 9 costs has made this mistake forever. SpaceX does not release their full costs. What numbers we have for them are PR releases. Meanwhile, NASA's budgets are public and comprehensive, and they have legal parameters…
Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX
#305Earlier quoted context omitted.
> funding and jobs being directed at their states. This is more important than it seems on the surface and is often a good thing. You want to train and preserve local expertise with heavy industries. That ensures generations of successful companies rejuvenating your economy as opposed to relying on federal handouts.
It's a good thing during down times. But now is not down times. Experienced, qualified space & rocket engineers are in high demand. Employing them to do useless make-work means they aren't available to work on rockets and space systems that will actually be useful in the future.
These people enjoy a cushy revolving door between several private and public sector aerospace jobs.
Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX
#306Its revenue will almost double again this year (2023) by looking at the number of launches[1]. Definitely the most exciting company Elon has (personal opinion) [1] https://www.spacexstats.xyz/#launchhistory-per-year
Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
Brief, if almost 4-year-old article: https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/nasa-does-not-deny-t... The ~$5B figure is in the final para. And that still sounds like it excludes ground systems and Orion development costs. (Plus ~4 more years of ever-growing bloat, obviously.)
> The ~$5B figure is in the final para. And that still sounds like it excludes ground systems and Orion development costs. (Plus ~4 more years of ever-growing bloat, obviously.) There is a much more official and up to date figure: > We project the cost to fly a single SLS/Orion system through at least Artemis IV to be $4.1 billion per launch at a cadence of approximately one mission per year. https://oig.nasa.gov/doc…
Kind of sad that the last living pieces of the shuttle will be dropped into the ocean and left to rust away
Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX
#308Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a good thing during down times. But now is not down times. Experienced, qualified space & rocket engineers are in high demand. Employing them to do useless make-work means they aren't available to work on rockets and space systems that will actually be useful in the future.
If you could predict good times and downtimes accurately, you’d be a multi-billionaire. These people enjoy a cushy revolving door between several private and public sector aerospace jobs.
Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX
#309Earlier quoted context omitted.
SLS is needed only because they were not allowed to adopt on-orbit propellant transfer. With rockets like the Falcons, propellant (which is most of the mass needed to get something to the moon) is launched in smaller quantities and accumulated. What sort of future in space do those advocating SLS imagine for us if moving a liquid from one tank to another is too challenging?
One where we just launch one rocket instead of building a giant orbital bomb slowly (accumulating fuel) and transferring all those explosives through a complex series of difficult rendezvous maneuvers? One rocket is risky enough. There's a huge amount of extra risk involved in that sort of idea, which is why NASA isn't doing it, which can just be avoided with SLS and Starship.
Docking isn't a safety risk.
Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX
#310Earlier quoted context omitted.
Some amount of the value baked-in assumes that SpaceX will earn money on any of the thousands of revenue sources possible in the creation and running of the first large-scale city on Mars. Maybe you think it isn't going to happen - and sure there is some risk (!) - but in the successful case, SpaceX should be worth many trillions. At least.
Hint: Starship cans are comically inadequate to support a martian colony. They might be just adequate to maintain a lunar outpost -- if they turn out to work at all. We don't even know if humans can survive, long-term, in 0.3g; zero g, anyway, is right out. Life in centrifuges on Mars would be even less fun than in cans. If some follow-on vehicle were ever developed adequate to support a martian colony, and lunar gra…
How could any rocket that can deliver several tons be inadequate for that?