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A look into the finances of SpaceX

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Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#181

Post by ProfessorLayton »

asynchronous wrote: post #172
TheAlchemist wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is very possible, even probable, that Tesla's glory days are already behind it. Their margin are contracting, and it's actually probable they will loose money in Q3, Q4 this year. They don't have any significant advantage on competition anymore, and China's competition is already well ahead Tesla. Elon himself suggested Tesla is worthless as a 'car making company' and it's value will come from solving autonomy wit…

I don’t understand how people say this with a straight face when Tesla is literally becoming the underlying charging network for the entire continental US. If anything they’re at a higher risk of the feds absorbing them as a public utility then they are of becoming irrelevant.

Is there a company with any sort of network (electrical, cellular, or otherwise) that's worth nearly 700B?

No one said irrelevant either, but that their best days are behind them. From an investor's point of view that could certainly be correct.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#182

Post by fredgrott »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #169
wddkcs wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is pricing in future growth. You can say the market is incorrectly evaluating the potential return, but it's hard to argue that Tesla and SpaceX aren't going to cash in on that potential. How else should the market be treating companies with obvious high growth potential?

It is very possible, even probable, that Tesla's glory days are already behind it. Their margin are contracting, and it's actually probable they will loose money in Q3, Q4 this year. They don't have any significant advantage on competition anymore, and China's competition is already well ahead Tesla. Elon himself suggested Tesla is worthless as a 'car making company' and it's value will come from solving autonomy wit…

You need to re-read Elon,

It's not that he will solve FSD, Tesla is valuable until FSD is solved as then it becomes just a car company.

And he picked the correct impossible puzzle that will never be solved. Same with the SpaceX premise.

The market value is the desire of groups of people that it be solved.

The lesson here is what impossible problem is our domains that we can market that our company is attempting to solve it and which of those impossible problems happens to intersect with a large group of people wanting said problem solved.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#183

Post by busterarm »

electriclove wrote: post #168
dabeeeenster wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why this is being upvoted. They are launching mass into space at between 1 and 2 orders of magnitude lower cost than anyone else. The R+D costs on that is insane. And they are almost profitable. I 100% agree that du-jour saas companies raising 300MM on limited revenue is one thing, but this is not the same.

There is a lot of hate on anything Elon does. The market is valuing his companies based on exactly what you stated. If people read the mission statements of these companies and listen to what Elon says, it is pretty clear on what his goals are. And contrary to what most believe, it is not to make himself tons of money. These companies are going to make money as a means to accomplish their goals. The control could shi…

TDS has evolved into MDS.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#184

Post by zamadatix »

bmitc wrote: post #167
wddkcs wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is pricing in future growth. You can say the market is incorrectly evaluating the potential return, but it's hard to argue that Tesla and SpaceX aren't going to cash in on that potential. How else should the market be treating companies with obvious high growth potential?

> The market is pricing in future growth. Does that answer the question, though? Future growth is an estimate and approximation, is not real, and says nothing about current revenues and losses.

What you get paid for isn't realized gains rather selling your future gains at a rate lower than others (i.e. the market) expects them to actual be worth. If the question is about how this makes sense then sure, it answers the question - you're selling your future gains now to fund the company which means the current value of your shares will reflect that future predicted value as well. If the question is "why without involving any future possibilities" then no, it doesn't answer the question, but I'm not sure the question makes any more sense than "why is the sun so hot ignoring fusion".

Another way to think of it is if I spent 10 billion to make a company which now successfully produces gold bricks from wood in a way most think I'll be historically net positive in 5 years then it's not really a mystery why waiting 5 years for the number to hit 0 is not particularly relevant to when people may be interested in buying parts of the company.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#185

Post by nordsieck »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #175
penjelly wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

my search says falcon has launches humans twice. Am i mistaken? that doesnt qualify as "regular basis"

Crew-1 to Crew-6, DM-2, Inspiration 4, Axiom 1, Axiom 2 10 missions A crewed mission to the ISS every 6 months plus a handful of commercials. Your numbers are way off.

And Crew-7 is about to take off in a week or so.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#186

Post by wmf »

bmitc wrote: post #166

Are there reporting requirements that separate actual revenue, my term for revenue from private parties, and revenue from government grants and contracts? What is the percentage of SpaceX's "revenue" that comes from government grants and contracts?

SpaceX has billions worth of government contracts but why do you ask? Remember that SpaceX is charging the government lower prices than its competitors...

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#187

Post by getoffmycase »

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #160
htss2013 wrote: post #140

Isn't it amazing that you can become the richest person in the world by building companies that lose money? By lose money I mean all money ever put into the company versus profits made. The idea of creating a profitless company that somehow makes you personally rich used to be thought of as a fluke. Yes it's possible but it shouldn't happen and aside from extreme luck it won't. Something has changed. Losing money and…

Wait until you learn about the biotech industry, they often go public with no revenue. I don't think there is anything wrong with this though, markets are pricing future growth, which may or may not materialize.

Biotech and drug discovery is inherently gambling. Most May tank, but some have the potential to 10-20x. Traditionally their IPOs allowed them to spread the risk out broadly amongst the public. Then they somehow became stupidly overvalued in 2020-2021

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#188

Post by mgolawala »

htss2013 wrote: post #140

Isn't it amazing that you can become the richest person in the world by building companies that lose money? By lose money I mean all money ever put into the company versus profits made. The idea of creating a profitless company that somehow makes you personally rich used to be thought of as a fluke. Yes it's possible but it shouldn't happen and aside from extreme luck it won't. Something has changed. Losing money and…

The valuation of the company has little to do with the equation of how much profit has been made in the past. It is focused on the companies profit potential in the future. This has always been the case.

Sears or Ford may have produced a ton more in profit than was, as you say, put into the company. But the current valuation is based on what profit the market believes it will produce in the future.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#190

Post by lordnacho »

wddkcs wrote: post #156
htss2013 wrote: post #140

Isn't it amazing that you can become the richest person in the world by building companies that lose money? By lose money I mean all money ever put into the company versus profits made. The idea of creating a profitless company that somehow makes you personally rich used to be thought of as a fluke. Yes it's possible but it shouldn't happen and aside from extreme luck it won't. Something has changed. Losing money and…

The market is pricing in future growth. You can say the market is incorrectly evaluating the potential return, but it's hard to argue that Tesla and SpaceX aren't going to cash in on that potential. How else should the market be treating companies with obvious high growth potential?

The problem with that argument is you have to have some sort of evidence that the market more or less does this correctly most of the time.

We're depending on the feedback mechanism here working correctly. If it doesn't, we are rewarding unproductive behaviours.

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