A look into the finances of SpaceX • Hacker News Board

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#161

Post by nordsieck » Thu, Aug 17, 2023, 9:16 PM UTC

reso wrote: post #145

nordsieck wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every report on Falcon 9 costs has made this mistake forever. SpaceX does not release their full costs. Not really relevant. The correct metric to make the comparison on is the fully amortized cost to the government per launch. The government doesn't pay for SpaceX's facilities or development - all of those costs are rolled into the launch price. But that's not true of SLS.

It is not possible to do a fair comparison of launch costs between Falcon 9 and other platforms without knowing the true cost of Falcon 9 launches.

> It is not possible to do a fair comparison of launch costs between Falcon 9 and other platforms without knowing the true cost of Falcon 9 launches.

I don't know why you're so obsessed with cost. The only thing that matters when it comes to commercial providers is price. And SpaceX, (as far as I can tell) stands alone among the medium-heavy lift providers by providing a price directly on their website.

Of course, for government launches the government typically wants extra services, which does boost the prices different levels for different missions (I think the Europa Clipper mission is particularly expensive for example). But all of those missions are competitively bid, and SpaceX tends to be the low price bidder, so those extra fees seem like they're probably pretty reasonable.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#162

Post by Teever » Thu, Aug 17, 2023, 9:17 PM UTC

ISL wrote: post #148

resolutebat wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At time of writing, it's the opposite: Falcon is launching humans into space on a regular basis, something SLS has entirely failed to do to date.

SLS hasn't yet been asked to launch a human.

He says, implying that this is the only thing stopping that from happening.

Is SLS even certified to carry people into space yet?

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#163

Post by pstuart » Thu, Aug 17, 2023, 9:17 PM UTC

bespokedevelopr wrote: post #89

dahfizz wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are giving members of congress way too much credit. They don't care about the moon one bit, SLS is just a jobs program

A jobs program just for their districts. A key distinction.

The Military Industrial Complex has entered the chat...

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#164

Post by LeifCarrotson » Thu, Aug 17, 2023, 9:17 PM UTC

htss2013 wrote: post #140

Isn't it amazing that you can become the richest person in the world by building companies that lose money? By lose money I mean all money ever put into the company versus profits made. The idea of creating a profitless company that somehow makes you personally rich used to be thought of as a fluke. Yes it's possible but it shouldn't happen and aside from extreme luck it won't. Something has changed. Losing money and…

Used to, as of when? The good old days of the 1990s? I think it goes back a lot further than that.

For a much more thorough look at how our modern financial systems produce what naive thinkers would consider to be bizarre results, I highly recommend Mariana Mazzucato's "The Value of Everything." It's a challenging read, but it goes into the details of how economic and political thought has shifted over the centuries regarding the concept of wealth and value creation, and how the game really works.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#165

Post by nordsieck » Thu, Aug 17, 2023, 9:19 PM UTC

Teever wrote: post #162

ISL wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SLS hasn't yet been asked to launch a human.

He says, implying that this is the only thing stopping that from happening. Is SLS even certified to carry people into space yet?

> Is SLS even certified to carry people into space yet?

It better be because Artemis-II will have people aboard Orion.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#166

Post by bmitc » Thu, Aug 17, 2023, 9:20 PM UTC

Are there reporting requirements that separate actual revenue, my term for revenue from private parties, and revenue from government grants and contracts? What is the percentage of SpaceX's "revenue" that comes from government grants and contracts?

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#167

Post by bmitc » Thu, Aug 17, 2023, 9:21 PM UTC

wddkcs wrote: post #156

htss2013 wrote: post #140

Isn't it amazing that you can become the richest person in the world by building companies that lose money? By lose money I mean all money ever put into the company versus profits made. The idea of creating a profitless company that somehow makes you personally rich used to be thought of as a fluke. Yes it's possible but it shouldn't happen and aside from extreme luck it won't. Something has changed. Losing money and…

The market is pricing in future growth. You can say the market is incorrectly evaluating the potential return, but it's hard to argue that Tesla and SpaceX aren't going to cash in on that potential. How else should the market be treating companies with obvious high growth potential?

> The market is pricing in future growth.

Does that answer the question, though? Future growth is an estimate and approximation, is not real, and says nothing about current revenues and losses.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#168

Post by electriclove » Thu, Aug 17, 2023, 9:21 PM UTC

dabeeeenster wrote: post #147

htss2013 wrote: post #140

Isn't it amazing that you can become the richest person in the world by building companies that lose money? By lose money I mean all money ever put into the company versus profits made. The idea of creating a profitless company that somehow makes you personally rich used to be thought of as a fluke. Yes it's possible but it shouldn't happen and aside from extreme luck it won't. Something has changed. Losing money and…

Not sure why this is being upvoted. They are launching mass into space at between 1 and 2 orders of magnitude lower cost than anyone else. The R+D costs on that is insane. And they are almost profitable. I 100% agree that du-jour saas companies raising 300MM on limited revenue is one thing, but this is not the same.

There is a lot of hate on anything Elon does. The market is valuing his companies based on exactly what you stated. If people read the mission statements of these companies and listen to what Elon says, it is pretty clear on what his goals are. And contrary to what most believe, it is not to make himself tons of money.

These companies are going to make money as a means to accomplish their goals. The control could shift away from him in the future and then at that point the goals could change to shareholder profits but that is not the case currently.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#169

Post by TheAlchemist » Thu, Aug 17, 2023, 9:21 PM UTC

wddkcs wrote: post #156

htss2013 wrote: post #140

Isn't it amazing that you can become the richest person in the world by building companies that lose money? By lose money I mean all money ever put into the company versus profits made. The idea of creating a profitless company that somehow makes you personally rich used to be thought of as a fluke. Yes it's possible but it shouldn't happen and aside from extreme luck it won't. Something has changed. Losing money and…

The market is pricing in future growth. You can say the market is incorrectly evaluating the potential return, but it's hard to argue that Tesla and SpaceX aren't going to cash in on that potential. How else should the market be treating companies with obvious high growth potential?

It is very possible, even probable, that Tesla's glory days are already behind it.

Their margin are contracting, and it's actually probable they will loose money in Q3, Q4 this year. They don't have any significant advantage on competition anymore, and China's competition is already well ahead Tesla.

Elon himself suggested Tesla is worthless as a 'car making company' and it's value will come from solving autonomy with FSD. While Tesla is very good at marketing, there were 2 companies allowed to operate self-driving taxis in SF past month, and there are already several operating in China. It's hard to argue that Tesla still has the lead in that domain.

Re: A look into the finances of SpaceX

#170

Post by marvin » Thu, Aug 17, 2023, 9:22 PM UTC

rogerkirkness wrote: post #143

misiti3780 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla doesnt lose money. It has been profitable for the past 14 quarters in a row. SpaceX clearly could be profitable if it wanted to be, and it clearly will be in the future. It will probably be very profitable. Most tech companies lose money before they make money. Amazon lost a shitload of money before it started turning a profit, now Jeff Bezos is the 2nd richest person in the world.

Tesla accumulated surplus/deficit (e.g. lifetime net consumption of cash) is much higher than it's lifetime gross burn ($6B) so it's definitely in material value creation territory.

This has also been clear to dedicated observers since 2017 or so, albeit with significant unresolved risk. The market finally priced it in around 2019-2020.