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LK-99 isn’t a superconductor

nature.com

161–170 of 754 posts

Re: LK-99 isn’t a superconductor

#161

It’s disappointing news but the excitement and amount of replication on this paper was pretty fun to witness and experience. To me the most interesting part was everyone talking about potential consequences, uses, the order of magnitude improvements we’d see in certain costs or areas. Pumps, MRIs, power grids, chips, etc. Great reminder what materials science can do to some underlying economics.

> were responsible for the sharp drops in electrical resistivity and partial levitation over a magnet

Are these properties still useful? If something can levitate without being a superconductor it is already useful for a LOT of things.

Re: LK-99 isn’t a superconductor

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least superconductors are a real thing.

That's a fair point. Maybe people did react similarly, but the LK-99 hype was at the very least grounded in scientific methodology. I should keep that in perspective and be a little less harsh.

Eh, you should still be a little harsh, though.

A common thread in a lot of these stories is people pushing the idea that The Authorities are not to be trusted. The government is lying to you about UFOs! The scientific establishment has been sitting on room temperature superconductors for 20 years!

And sure, question authority.

But also question the people telling you to question authority.

Because contrarians are just ripe for affinity fraud, and while most of that affinity fraud is centered around alt-med, the cultivation of a pervasive distrust of authority is part of what enables the scam.

Re: LK-99 isn’t a superconductor

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Jain, a copper-sulfide expert I would have never known that people are actual experts in one material. This is impressive.

Most PhDs are incredibly specific and don’t necessary indicate broad knowledge of a field as a whole. Which is why you should be wary of “experts” making overly broad claims about topics within their field but far outside their area of expertise. Early on during Covid you would see postdoc infectious disease experts on every news channel 3 times daily giving their takes. Some of whom maybe took a 3000 level course in…

> Most PhDs are incredibly specific and don’t necessary indicate broad knowledge of a field as a whole

> Which is why you should be wary of “experts” making overly broad claims about topics within their field but far outside their area of expertise.

I mostly agree, but also I think it depends on how strong you are suggesting this and if you also acknowledge that there is high variance between domains as to the variance within the distribution of knowledge. Your last sentence is where I really disagree. There is a big difference.

But I think for the general person, there's 2 things of note: 1) just because you should be wary of an expert talking outside their niche (but inside their broader domain), doesn't mean that their opinion is equal to that of a layman. I'd still trust the mostly-expert over the non-expert any day. The true-expert is often very hard to find tbh. Look for nuance and you'll increase the likelihood of finding the expert. 2) It is easy to confuse expert talk with arrogance or pretentiousness. It is also easy to be that way when talking to a layman as the nature of those conversations will never be between peers, but more akin to a teacher and student. The two parties are not equal, but we're primed to treat any non-academic setting conversation as if we are. The experts often have serious doubts and are far more self-conscious than they appear. You just won't see that unless you're a peer and can speak the language, because experts are also specifically taught to defend their work and speak with confidence. Your hint is how they respond to critiques from other experts (but that's not easy to do accurately as there's probably a lot of nuance you aren't seeing and they are speaking a different language even if you understand all the words).

Everyone should always be skeptical though. That's for certain. But I just want to make sure we don't turn knowledge into a binary setting: expert vs idiot. There's a lot in-between and that matters a lot.

Re: LK-99 isn’t a superconductor

#164
post #135

It’s disappointing news but the excitement and amount of replication on this paper was pretty fun to witness and experience. To me the most interesting part was everyone talking about potential consequences, uses, the order of magnitude improvements we’d see in certain costs or areas. Pumps, MRIs, power grids, chips, etc. Great reminder what materials science can do to some underlying economics.

I disagree. I get pissed off when revolutionary scientific news is brought to me only to turn out to be some bogus crap. I don’t care about the replication and peer review process, it’s not fun, it’s banal. I would much rather have preferred to learn about LK-99 once it was confirmed to be a room temp superconductor, and if it wasn’t then I’d rather never hear about it. Now I have to walk back explanations I gave to…

It sounds like you were explaining it to people before it was confirmed - why did you do that? I don't really grok the emotional connection you seem to be talking about - how does someone pin their mental state so much on something like this (unconfirmed research)?

Is it the idea that there might be something great happening, and that we might get the chance to live in exciting times? I could see people wanting to believe in that opportunity.

Re: LK-99 isn’t a superconductor

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed! There's this bizarre reaction I see from many where they see the excitement and curiosity and hopefulness as a form of error and source of embarrassment. When mixed with an open mind and reasonable skepticism, it's a powerful opportunity to get people engaged in imagining a different world. I had all kinds of exciting conversations about what a validated, commercially viable LK-99 could produce. Why would I e…

In this case, I think the excitement and hopefulness was not dangerous or wrong, but I do see a risk to this kind of preprint hype in other contexts. During COVID there were multiple cases like this where a study got a lot of hype and discussion from non-experts and turned into "the science says X", when in fact the science was as of yet extremely unsettled. Sure enough, as the experts came to a consensus it rarely m…

I think this kind of excitement followed up with "wasn't anything after all" is both dangerous and wrong.

When science is done badly (which arguably shouldn't be considered science), which then leads the public to have elevated expectations, only then for science to be done right and disprove and reject the original "findings", public trust in science is ever so slightly damaged.

Re: LK-99 isn’t a superconductor

#166
post #14

In their preprint, the Korean authors note one particular temperature at which LK-99’s showed a tenfold drop in resistivity, from about 0.02 ohms per centimetre to 0.002 ohms per cm. “They were very precise about it. 104.8ºC,” says Prashant Jain, a chemist at the University of Illinois Urbana–Champaign. “I was like, wait a minute, I know this temperature.” The reaction that synthesizes LK-99 uses an unbalanced recipe…

> Jain, a copper-sulfide expert I would have never known that people are actual experts in one material. This is impressive.

https://www.quora.com/In-Tesla-and-SpaceX-how-much-of-the-te...

A number of years back I had an email from a bloke called Elon Musk. I was vaguely aware of who he was but not very.

At the time I was the global expert in a very weird alloy (the market for it was perhaps 5 or 10 tonnes a year. A very weird and minority interest alloy). It was aluminium scandium, which the Russians had developed to compete with Nasa’s use of aluminium lithium. In many ways a better alloy too. And, obviously, there were possible uses in rockets and so on (rather more in something like a Shuttle than in simple rockets though).

OK, so I get this email and it asks me whether this aluminium scandium is worth it, will it make my rockets lighter, asks Musk. No, not really, it’ll make them easier to weld but not lighter particularly. Which was pretty much the end of the exchange.

So, when people ask me whether Musk does tech stuff I would have to say yes. Because he tracked down a one man company that knew the straight answer to the question he needed answering. OK, you might not think that is engineering, preferring to think of it as people using a slide rule to work it all out themselves. But finding the bloke who knows the answer and asking them is engineering to me - it’s still getting to the right answer, isn’t it?

Re: LK-99 isn’t a superconductor

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN discussion did not particlarly have "reasonable skepticism". This is probably because people (i) were not aware that there had been many other hypes about RTSC before but less publicly visible all proved to be false, (ii) not being able to accurately judge the technical quality of the initial evidence, (iii) uncritically believing that the data in the initial preprints was proof for superconductivity because their…

Jeez— it's almost like few people around here are physicists, consider physicists credible on their specialty, saw physicists excited by the potential, and get excited by exciting things. What a shamefully foolish intellectual failure!

As noted by the sibling comment, the physicists (especially those who specialized in superconductor research!) were the ones who were the most skeptical of the announcement, partially because claims of room-temperature superconductors are actually relatively common, and partially because the evidence in the paper was just atrociously bad [1].

One of the things I look forward to in an HN discussion is the comments of people who can collate expert opinions on the subject and surface these kinds of points in a more ELI15 kind of way. But despite there being ~a week of LK-99 stories permanently on the front page, there wasn't much of that (a little on the initial thread, and virtually nothing for the next several days)--and it's not for lack of physicists commenting on the topic (in other forums)!

[1] I saw someone point out that, when you translate the units on the resistivity/temperature graph, it is a worse conductor than copper at room temperature, below its claimed critical temperature.

Re: LK-99 isn’t a superconductor

#168
(I am very much a layperson)

So does this mean that the videos that showed LK-99 hovering but not rotating are fake? Or can you have that static hover effect without being a superconductor?

Re: LK-99 isn’t a superconductor

#169
"The science is settled."

Proceeds to quote a guy who studied chemistry at university and now works in finance.

Now, Im not saying it is a superconductor. But please, don't insult my intelligence with garbage like that, I'm more inclined to believe that kind of reporting is evidence that serious scientists are not willing to go on record as saying it isn't.

Re: LK-99 isn’t a superconductor

#170
post #168

(I am very much a layperson) So does this mean that the videos that showed LK-99 hovering but not rotating are fake? Or can you have that static hover effect without being a superconductor?

> In the video, the same edge of the sample seemed to stick to the magnet, and it seemed delicately balanced. By contrast, superconductors that levitate over magnets can be spun and even held upside-down. “None of those behaviors look like what we see in the LK-99 videos,” van Gennep says.

> He thought LK-99’s properties were more likely the result of ferromagnetism. So he constructed a pellet of compressed graphite shavings with iron filings glued to it. A video made by Van Gennep shows that his disc — made of non-superconducting, ferromagnetic materials — mimicked LK-99’s behaviour.

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