Yep, we're talking about similar things but in slightly different ways:
1. When you're small enough, and only have a few teams and/or deployed binaries, you keep everything in a single repo.
2. As you grow with more teams and more products/binaries, often companies will split into having separate repos per team/product, and then use some sort of dependency management tooling (either something like the git submodules you discuss, or a private package repository, e.g GitHub's Package Registry, Nexus, or Artifactory). I totally agree with you that a lot of companies do this prematurely.
3. What distinguishes "monorepos", in my opinion, is that this was an innovation at either Google or Facebook I think (not sure who was first), where they realized exactly what you point out - it makes it really hard to do refactorings across lots of dependent projects in different repos. So they decided to keep everything in a single source control repository, with a single commit history. But in order to do that and have things be sane with lots of teams and thousands of developers, they needed to invest a ton in custom tooling to make these giant monorepos usable by individual developers and teams. E.g Facebook has Sapling, Google has Piper, and there are open source tools like Lerna for JS monorepos.
So, in my experience, just having everything in a single repository but without any special tooling (because you're small enough to not need it yet) is just a repo. Monorepo IMO implies that you've grown to the point where it's difficult to keep everything in a single repo without special developer workflow support tools.
All that said, I definitely agree with your main point - a lot of companies can just keep everything in a single repository a lot longer than they think they can, even without special tooling beyond some separate build targets.