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Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

newton.spacedys.com

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Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#121

Post by apatil »

killthebuddha wrote: post #100

I'm having a weirdly difficult time finding some basic ELI5 answers. - What is the probability that this asteroid will hit us? - What is the time interval where that probability applies? - Do we have a probability distribution for where it might hit? I don't know anything about anything, but I assume we know what *general direction* it's coming from? - Do we have a probability distribution for the potential blast rad…

Also, is it possible to quantify the risk of unseen companion asteroids, which someone else mentioned in the comments.

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#122

Post by cafxx »

lucb1e wrote: post #101
SoftTalker wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

400m in one dimension leaves a lot of room for variation. 400m x 1m x 1m is a lot less concerning than a 400m diameter sphere.

I wonder what the distribution is like; the most extreme length to height ratios we've seen for example. Not sure I've ever heard of something weirder than on the order of 2:1

'Oumuamua was closer to 8:1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#123

Post by Analemma_ »

killthebuddha wrote: post #100

I'm having a weirdly difficult time finding some basic ELI5 answers. - What is the probability that this asteroid will hit us? - What is the time interval where that probability applies? - Do we have a probability distribution for where it might hit? I don't know anything about anything, but I assume we know what *general direction* it's coming from? - Do we have a probability distribution for the potential blast rad…

When a new potentially-hazardous asteroid is discovered, it's normal for the probability of impact to go up a couple times before abruptly plummeting to zero, as the radius of uncertainty shrinks until it shrinks past the Earth. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale#/media/File:Apoph....

A 3% chance of impact right after discovery with the initial error ellipse isn't all that unusual; it will almost certainly be revised to 0 with more observation (and if it's not, you'll hear about it).

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#124

Post by lucb1e »

amiralul wrote: post #118
songeater wrote: post #107

did this pass ~4000km from earth? [1] MOID given as 0.0000296 https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys2/NEOScan/risk_page/ZTm003... [2] AU to km https://www.google.com/search?q=au+to+kilomore&rlz=1C1GCEA_e...

Other source[1] says 0.0002 AU, still very close (about 40,000 km). [1]: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/object/ZTm0038

This, as I understand it, being the closest approach to our orbit, not our atmosphere or so. To put this in perspective, the Earth is some 6.4 Mm in radius, so that's 40-6.4 = 33.6 Mm above the surface.

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#125

Post by hoten »

JumpinJack_Cash wrote: post #98

The public is unanimously in favor of funding asteroid protection mechanisms and research. It's even higher support than the military. Naturally what do we do with that money and goodwill instead? Yes! Let's build a massive space telescope which takes pictures that are only marginally better than the other multi-billion dollar space telescope! Protect the Earth? Fuck that, don't ya know kid? She's toast anyway becaus…

It seems any serious asteroid prevention program is going to require the learnings of "pointless" (as you might put it) scientific expeditions like putting an object into L2.

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#126

Post by radicaldreamer »

hoten wrote: post #19
pcblues wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.quora.com/Would-an-asteroid-measuring-400-metres... I googled your question :)

Quora is pretty much unreadable now. Is the main answer just chat gpt? That's how it seems from mobile view. The page is too noisy to navigate for me.

Not sure why this happened but it went viral in India as a place to practice english for internet points or an online place to for Indians to do endless chit-chat, which is a lot more fun in person there than it is online!

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#128

Post by vkou »

killthebuddha wrote: post #100

I'm having a weirdly difficult time finding some basic ELI5 answers. - What is the probability that this asteroid will hit us? - What is the time interval where that probability applies? - Do we have a probability distribution for where it might hit? I don't know anything about anything, but I assume we know what *general direction* it's coming from? - Do we have a probability distribution for the potential blast rad…

Uncertainty in measurements make it almost impossible to tell where an object like this is going to impact, until we are hours, if not minutes away from impact.

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#129

Post by radicaldreamer »

jcul wrote: post #95
pcrh wrote: post #68

From other comments in this thread, it seems this risk has passed, but was known three days ago? Was any action taken at all? A 3% risk isn't small.

Is there any action that could have been taken? Genuinely curious, I read about a test of some technology for deflecting asteroids a few weeks ago on HN, but I don't think we really have those capabilities yet?

There is likely a capability in the classified world to launch a vehicle to hit this object, but it won't be used because disclosing this ability would spark an arms race.

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#130

Post by mrb »

killthebuddha wrote: post #100

I'm having a weirdly difficult time finding some basic ELI5 answers. - What is the probability that this asteroid will hit us? - What is the time interval where that probability applies? - Do we have a probability distribution for where it might hit? I don't know anything about anything, but I assume we know what *general direction* it's coming from? - Do we have a probability distribution for the potential blast rad…

I can answer 2 of your questions:

  - What is the probability that this asteroid will hit us?
It's listed in the article: Impact probability 0.034, meaning 3.4% chance of impact.

  - What is the time interval where that probability applies?
It's also listed: impact was estimated to potentially occur between 2023/08/14 04:48 TDB and 2023/08/15 12:22 TDB. (TDB seems to be UTC time without leap seconds? not sure). In other words the asteroid already passed Earth, and is currently no longer a risk.
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