Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

newton.spacedys.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 252 posts

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#111

Post by lijok »

killthebuddha wrote: post #100

I'm having a weirdly difficult time finding some basic ELI5 answers. - What is the probability that this asteroid will hit us? - What is the time interval where that probability applies? - Do we have a probability distribution for where it might hit? I don't know anything about anything, but I assume we know what *general direction* it's coming from? - Do we have a probability distribution for the potential blast rad…

Spotted 3 days ago. There's an incentive not to publicize this. Lots of close passes only get coverage after the fact.

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#112

Post by lijok »

lucb1e wrote: post #109

> Closest approach time [...] t_max = 2023/08/15 12:22 TDB [...] Run started at 2023-08-14 23:51 UTC and ended at 2023-08-15 00:06 UTC So this computation result became known after the closest approach would happen at the latest. Looking at the asteroid I saw hitting us, 2023CX1 (known as Sar2667 before being designated), it says: > Closest approach [...] t_max = 2023/02/13 03:22 TDB [...] Run started at 2023-02-13 1…

Can you elaborate on the question you're asking?

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#113

Post by dougmwne »

SoftTalker wrote: post #92
lucb1e wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ~400m along it's biggest dimension Where did you find this information? I don't understand all the fields on the page, but don't see any number being 400 within an order of magnitude

400m in one dimension leaves a lot of room for variation. 400m x 1m x 1m is a lot less concerning than a 400m diameter sphere.

That would sound like a kinetic bombardment weapon and that we were about to get rodded. My level of concern would be sky high!

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#114

Post by lucb1e »

lijok wrote: post #112
lucb1e wrote: post #109

> Closest approach time [...] t_max = 2023/08/15 12:22 TDB [...] Run started at 2023-08-14 23:51 UTC and ended at 2023-08-15 00:06 UTC So this computation result became known after the closest approach would happen at the latest. Looking at the asteroid I saw hitting us, 2023CX1 (known as Sar2667 before being designated), it says: > Closest approach [...] t_max = 2023/02/13 03:22 TDB [...] Run started at 2023-02-13 1…

Can you elaborate on the question you're asking?

Put differently: am I missing something if I say this website is similar in function to https://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com ?

At least in terms of a public service announcement; I understand it's interesting for science but not so much for linking "hey look there's an X% chance of impact....yesterday!" on news websites

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#116

Post by radicaldreamer »

postalrat wrote: post #106
SoftTalker wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

400m in one dimension leaves a lot of room for variation. 400m x 1m x 1m is a lot less concerning than a 400m diameter sphere.

400x1x1 would be a pretty nasty spear that must have been made by someone.

It’s the Spear of Longinus

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#117

Post by fghorow »

songeater wrote: post #107

did this pass ~4000km from earth? [1] MOID given as 0.0000296 https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys2/NEOScan/risk_page/ZTm003... [2] AU to km https://www.google.com/search?q=au+to+kilomore&rlz=1C1GCEA_e...

Something weird is going on. This site [1] suggests the MOID was about 0.02 AU.

[1] https://www.projectpluto.com/neocp2/mpecs/ZTm0038.htm

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#118

Post by amiralul »

songeater wrote: post #107

did this pass ~4000km from earth? [1] MOID given as 0.0000296 https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys2/NEOScan/risk_page/ZTm003... [2] AU to km https://www.google.com/search?q=au+to+kilomore&rlz=1C1GCEA_e...

Other source[1] says 0.0002 AU, still very close (about 40,000 km).

[1]: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/object/ZTm0038

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#119

Post by lucb1e »

songeater wrote: post #107

did this pass ~4000km from earth? [1] MOID given as 0.0000296 https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys2/NEOScan/risk_page/ZTm003... [2] AU to km https://www.google.com/search?q=au+to+kilomore&rlz=1C1GCEA_e...

MOID being minimum orbit intersection distance, for anyone else wondering. Sounded like someID (identifier) to me, was wondering why that value was given in AU

Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability

#120

Post by radicaldreamer »

ortusdux wrote: post #89
EGreg wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would also very much like to know what the consequences of an impact might be

This paper is an interesting read: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009457651... Not my area of expertise, but it sounds like a deep ocean impact would not be completely catastrophic. With only ∼1% of the asteroid kinetic energy being converted into tsunami waves and with the stronger decay with distance implies that moderate size asteroids (100–500 m in diameter) striking the deep ocean basins off…

If it hit land anywhere other than Siberia or the Sahara, it would be pretty bad!
Post reply on HN