[flagged]
[deleted]
Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability
81–90 of 252 posts
Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability
#82[dead]
Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability
#83I wonder how many people already used this https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/ to see what happens if it falls in moscow downtown
Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability
#84I wonder how many people already used this https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/ to see what happens if it falls in moscow downtown
[deleted]
Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability
#85Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability
#86[flagged]
Instead of snarking and putting others down, which is against the site guidelines, why not explain something so we can all learn? If you know more than others, that's a much better way to show it.
Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability
#87Is there an english / eli5 if you like, summary of what this means? I gather that today or yesterday an asteroid ~400m along it's biggest dimension ultimately came within x km of earth, that was close enough there was a nontrivial chance it would hit us? And this is big enough to make a 30 mile crater? And we only found out it was coming a couple days ago? Sounds like a pretty big deal if that's accurate.
> ~400m along it's biggest dimension
Where did you find this information? I don't understand all the fields on the page, but don't see any number being 400 within an order of magnitude
Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability
#88[flagged]
Instead of snarking and putting others down, which is against the site guidelines, why not explain something so we can all learn? If you know more than others, that's a much better way to show it. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Site guidelines also say "assume good faith". My comment is on how absurd the situation is, not a dig at any HN users.
Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability
#89Earlier quoted context omitted.
Am I reading this data correctly?: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/#/object/ZTm0038 Because it looks like today is the most probable day of impact at 10%, but there is a good 25%+ chance it will impact sometime in the next two weeks.
I would also very much like to know what the consequences of an impact might be
This paper is an interesting read:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009457651...
Not my area of expertise, but it sounds like a deep ocean impact would not be completely catastrophic.
With only ∼1% of the asteroid kinetic energy being converted into tsunami waves and with the stronger decay with distance implies that moderate size asteroids (100–500 m in diameter) striking the deep ocean basins off the continental shelves are not a significant overall hazard...
So like a 50% chance it wouldn't be that bad. Larger asteroids would vaporize enough ocean water to cause long lasting atmospheric affects.
Otherwise, a land impact would be somewhere in the 1-100 Tsar Bomba range energy wise.
Re: Asteroid ZTm0038 with a >3% impact probability
#90> Closest approach time of impactors: t_min = 2023/08/14 04:48 TDB and t_max = 2023/08/15 12:22 TDB
If you can read this that means it hasn't hit you.