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What Will the World Look Like with Less Babies?

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Re: What Will the World Look Like with Less Babies?

#61
It's not costs per se as we see fertility rates drop in tandem with rising wealth.

But indirectly, probably, in the form of raised expectations. You want to give your kids at least what you had as a child, ideally more, and that gets increasingly tied to high costs.

Re: What Will the World Look Like with Less Babies?

#62
post #27

Well I can't speak for anybody else, but me and my partner are pushing mid to late 30s and simply haven't got there because of cost and lack of financial stability. It's difficult to impossible to survive on a single income like my parents did to raise me, and the cost of childcare is the same as losing one income regardless. For better or worse the economy has been reshaped around the assumption of dual income, full…

You're right. My wife and I have done the math multiple times, and we'd actually -lose- money if she went back to work. I remember childcare being rather communal in the US, where I lived, as recently as the early 90s. Now that the media and social media has turned everyone against each other, the only way out seemingly is to subsidize child care.

Well, a support network is one thing. My grandparents certainly babysat me on occasion, but me and my partner are quite far away (over an hours drive) away from any close family. Naturally my parents are also a lot older than my grandparents were as well, so it would be less fair on them.

I really don't think the phenomenon of people having fewer kids or having kids later is a mystery!

Re: What Will the World Look Like with Less Babies?

#63
post #16
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it serious?

Because it's exponential decay: population_n = population_0 * 0.55^n (made-up exponent).

In any oscillating trajectory you’d see exponents above and below 1. Tomorrow’s birth rate is not impacted by today’s. But the fear is that today’s birth rate will continue forever until societal collapse, which seems unlikely.

Re: What Will the World Look Like with Less Babies?

#65
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are probably lying (to themselves as well) because of the massive responsibility they feel for the child.

My experience raising kids and the experiences of many parents I know has been very enjoyable and rewarding.

"Building better startups. CTO, Consultant & Recruiter. Over 50 IPOs/Exits incl. Palantir, Fiverr, Okta, Elastic, BrightBytes (aq. Google)"

I would assume because you had massive amounts of money you could treat raising a child like a recreational activity.. and even then i am betting there is a lot of pink glasses looking in the past involved

Re: What Will the World Look Like with Less Babies?

#66

> fertility rates tend to fall below the level needed to maintain the population, 2.1 children per woman. Why 2.1 and not 2?

You've got a like 1/9 chance of dying by 21 I've heard. It's probably wrong but a decent amount of people die before they are able to have kids so they add a 0.1 to the replacement level.

Re: What Will the World Look Like with Less Babies?

#67
post #23

> Why Is This Happening? Maybe it's a reduction in security? https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/family-consequences-job-insec... Children are a long term commitment. Being richer won't necessarily make a person have more children if they are uncertain whether the riches will continue. A $1000/month car, per the article, can be disposed of if things go bad. Children can't (unless you are in a Monty Python movie. https://w…

The $1000 dollar a month argument is weak though. If I have a job that pays $4000 a month but it requires driving 100km to get there, then a reliable car is a good investment.

Not buying a car and raising kids instead (who require more than $1000 a month) would require me either having a great parental network to fall back on (e.g. parents, a village) or having those kids taken away from me as I fail to meet their needs

(Also the article did not at all address the clickbait title that made me read it. Okay, we will have more pets maybe. Anything else?)

Re: What Will the World Look Like with Less Babies?

#68
post #53
post #3

> No one really knows why birth rates are dropping so fast. [...] Many people have theories but if you critically examine them they fall apart. > [#1] People do not have money for kids. [#2] The Government isn’t Providing pro-natal policies. [#3] This is happening only in societies that are not religious. [#4] Women are working and not having kids. That seems like an incomplete list. For example, how about this one:…

I feel like a test case in what is happening even if it's cliche. Wanted to have kids around my late 20s, but had tons of trouble just dating at that time, much less finding a partner. In my mid-to-late 30s, I had multiple people I was seeing request/give ultimatums on timelines of having kids together after they'd decided they like me, but we'd barely started dating (which I obviously couldn't commit to with someone…

Me and my friend group spanning many countries of people in their 30s-early 40s all have landed on 0, 1 or 2 kids. Median is certainly below replacement rate. I don’t know anyone who has three or more. I don’t think that trend will be coming back. We’ll all become Japan eventually

Re: What Will the World Look Like with Less Babies?

#69
IMHO it is rising individualism triggerred from FOMO from social media where in you believe you still have something left to experience outside in the world and which cannot be done once you have small kids.

Another one probably is how people with kids narrate their experience , where in they mention all the sleepless nights , limitations and costs , without telling about the postive aspects like happinesss , satisfaction and a stronger sense of purpose. Can't blame them given these aspects are very subtle and difficult to tell/narrate.

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