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China's Zombie Economy

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121–130 of 156 posts

Re: China's Zombie Economy

#121
post #79

The Economist recently did some interesting rethinking of the unstoppable power of the Chinese economy in their May "Peak China?" edition. Some links (sorry for paywall, but I do find them worth it.) https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2023-05-13 Is Chinese power about to peak? : https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/05/11/is-chinese-powe... How soon and at what height will China’s economy peak? : https://www.ec…

The worry is that internal conflict will lead to external wars as a distraction of the populace.

Yes, which is why I brought up the disparity in the number of the genders in the population. It's that disparity which makes cultures unstable and violent.

Re: China's Zombie Economy

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can safely ignore any story that includes “collapse” in its title when referring to a G-20 country. They’re all just clickbait.

What about Argentina? 100% inflation!?

Over a 100%, thank you very much

Re: China's Zombie Economy

#123
post #116
post #100

Anyone who took a high-speed train from Beijing to Shanghai over the past decade might have caught on to this phenomenon. The number of cities built in the middle of nowhere, with concrete skyscrapers standing empty, is stark and staggering. Seeing them is not only surreal, but gives one the sense of seeing something they ought not to, despite it being right outside the window. The only rationalization that withstand…

Are there no mechanization gains in China to increase ag production per worker? In the short term they're already net importers of food, no reason this can't continue until their population collapses via impacts of 1 child.

China is the world’s biggest importer of meat, dairy, soybeans and corn. The last time they tried an agricultural revolution, approximate 40m people starved to death.

The Chinese population already in rapid decline, but not fast enough.

Re: China's Zombie Economy

#124

“ In its closed financial system, exporters must surrender their foreign earnings to the central bank, which creates equivalent RMB to mop up the foreign currencies. This led to the rapid expansion of RMB liquidity in the economy, mostly in the form of bank loans. ” Can anyone explain this to me? My interpretation is the central bank exchanges exporter’s foreign currency for RMB. How does it become bank loans?

Funny, I was looking at the second half of that paragraph so will post it here:

Because the banking system is tightly controlled by the party-state – with state-owned or state-connected enterprises serving as the fiefdoms and cash cows of elite families – the state sector enjoyed privileged access to state bank loans, which were used to fuel an investment spree. The result was rising employment, a temporary and localized economic boom, and a windfall for the elite. But this dynamic also left behind redundant and unprofitable construction projects: empty apartments, underused airports, excessive coal plants and steel mills. That, in turn, resulted in falling profits, slowing growth and worsening indebtedness across the main sectors of the economy.

Which looks eerily similar to the influx of outside capital in cities like mine, which are experiencing unprecedented growth as huge apartment complexes are built for millions of dollars, while the average person can't afford a $500,000 home that was just $150,000 a decade ago. Because access to capital has been ..corrupted? I don't know the right word.

So we have all of these people working as hard as they can to build nonproductive infrastructure. A healthier investment might look like NOT paving farms. Or expanding mass transit. Or funding education. Or stimulating the commercial and industrial sectors. Or doing anything else at all really.

We already went down this road in the 2000s, when the Dot Bomb strategically crashed the economy to give Bush the win in the Bush v. Gore decision, so that attention could be distracted away from sustainability investments like electric cars and solar, towards militarism and a buildout of the housing market which led to the housing bubble popping in 2008. IMHO the US never recovered from that, so now it's all these shell games designed to keep capital out of the hands of everyday working people, who will be left behind as we transition to a rent-based economy of global neofeudalism.

Beneficiaries are not the ones paying in with their time and effort, which creates low morale in the economy and causes the 20% unemployment in youth who have rightfully spotted that the economy is rigged. I think this will become more prevalent as authoritarianism rises and AI eventually takes an oversight role while having no accountability.

BTW this is all fixed through tax policy. We simply tax the wealthy at post-WWII levels until the national debt is paid and workers return to a livable wage as the middle class grows. Note that that's the only thing we haven't tried, which is why no progress is being made.

Re: China's Zombie Economy

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can safely ignore any story that includes “collapse” in its title when referring to a G-20 country. They’re all just clickbait.

> You can safely ignore any story that includes “collapse” in its title when referring to a G-20 country. They’re all just clickbait. Japan’s economy arguably collapsed in the 90s. Perhaps burst and stagnated is more accurate ever but its a semantic game at that point. No one knows if China’s economy will collapse but there are lots a serious and unique risks.

And yet Japan is still there, the 3rd or 4th largest economy in the world. “Collapse” = clickbait.

Re: China's Zombie Economy

#126
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm still not sold on the "China is dying" theory. I don't know if it's as much a story of decline as it is one of unmet expectations. China has a declining (and likely overstated) population. They have a very heterogeneous population. They also have an unsustainable growth model and an unwillingness to 'pull the plug', stop manufacturer subsidies, and tackle local governance issues. In other words, China looks a l…

> unmet expectations TBH PRC "growth rate" is roughly in line with expectations, including PRC will overtake US projections from years ago, caveate being many of those projections assumed PRC would strengthen rmb to iirc 4-6 vs 7 to 1 USD to put PRC at ~25T economy. Regardless, GDP not particularly useful for comparisons of comprehensive national power. > Lower growth and - maybe - some form of stagnation are more li…

> TBH PRC "growth rate" is roughly in line with expectations

Iirc the expectation in the early teens was a slowdown to 3-5% growth around the middle of the last decade. The argument then was that PRC officials knew they needed to transition to a more balanced growth model.

Instead, they continued over investing in manufacturing and infrastructure. The end result is a sizable amount of debt across the entire economy that is, likely, unsustainable if and when a market downturn occurs.

> TLDR PRC is at 25% skilled workforce

I think there's a bias on here to think that skilled = STEM. There's an argument to be made that what China really needs is skilled service workers.

People also need to realize that, when it comes to demographics and population mobility, China is far more akin to the EU than the US.

If we go by your argument, Europe also has a very large reserve of unskilled or semi-skilled workers. However, moving from Sophia to Frankfurt != moving from Boise to San Fransisco. I'll even argue that it's much easier to move from Bulgaria to Germany than it is to move from Sannxi to Beijing.

Re: China's Zombie Economy

#127
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can safely ignore any story that includes “collapse” in its title when referring to a G-20 country. They’re all just clickbait.

"Collapse" is not turning into a war-torn wasteland. I's just losing much / most of the power, and getting by in that mode somehow. Japan is a mild example, but I bet you have much fewer "Made in Japan" things in your house than you would in 1985. Argentina is a much more painful example, with no recovery in sight. Wait what's going to happen when Russia loses the war.

Japan is still the third or fourth largest economy in the world. They didn’t collapse.

“Collapse” would be Great Depression, or unbailed-out Global Financial Crisis. The GFC (rightly) spooked everyone, but now we’ve got millions of wanna-be prophets in the media trying to predict the next “collapse” and take credit for being a modern day Nostradamus. But it’s all just clickbait.

Re: China's Zombie Economy

#128
post #79

The Economist recently did some interesting rethinking of the unstoppable power of the Chinese economy in their May "Peak China?" edition. Some links (sorry for paywall, but I do find them worth it.) https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2023-05-13 Is Chinese power about to peak? : https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/05/11/is-chinese-powe... How soon and at what height will China’s economy peak? : https://www.ec…

usually Economist is a contrarian indicator, like in this article the writer mentioned them boom(doom?) at the exact opposite point.

Re: China's Zombie Economy

#129
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> unmet expectations TBH PRC "growth rate" is roughly in line with expectations, including PRC will overtake US projections from years ago, caveate being many of those projections assumed PRC would strengthen rmb to iirc 4-6 vs 7 to 1 USD to put PRC at ~25T economy. Regardless, GDP not particularly useful for comparisons of comprehensive national power. > Lower growth and - maybe - some form of stagnation are more li…

> TBH PRC "growth rate" is roughly in line with expectations Iirc the expectation in the early teens was a slowdown to 3-5% growth around the middle of the last decade. The argument then was that PRC officials knew they needed to transition to a more balanced growth model. Instead, they continued over investing in manufacturing and infrastructure. The end result is a sizable amount of debt across the entire economy t…

PRC national debt is ~75% of GDP vs US ~120%, total aggregate debt PRC ~270% vs US ~760%. Basically +40-50% in the last 10 years to fund the largest infra expansion in human history. Why is infra and manufacturing over invested? Except some western analysis state it is so. PRC per capita infra is still not advanced economy levels - PRC still has infra shortage. Meanwhile manufacturing is why PRC is moving up various value chains. Past 4 years, PRC export increased by 1T predominantly in global south, and holding onto most of gains - by all metrics of current export slump across export dependent economies (which PRC is not @20% export GDP), PRC export is doing near top in terms of capturing/retaining market share. This is not 1 step forward 2 steps back in market downturn, this is sustainable 3 step forward, 1 steps back.

>think that skilled = STEM.

No I'm just highlighting out of 250m bodies entering workforce, at current rate about 50-100m will be STEM. 50-100m will be other high skill either skilled vocational or skilled services. The point is PRC transitioning from 25% skilled to 60-80% is basically piling up multiple current PRC worth of competitive talent into the mix.

> easier to move from Bulgaria to Germany than it is to move from Sannxi to Beijing

PRC tertiary enrollment is more or less correlated to urban migration and urban workforce. The youth unemployment stat for example was about urban youth unemployment where 2/3 youth cohorts are - mostly for education. Skilled talent are naturally concentrated in productive centres in tier 1/2 cities (and increasingly growing interior 3/4 industrializing clusters) just by virtue of where tertiary networks are located.

Yes unskilled / semiskilled have limited migration optionsin PRC via Hukao, but it's not causing a labour shortage problem since that cohort is 200m+ trapped in informal economy. Most of them are basically so underskilled and undereducated that they can't even be trained for assembly line jobs (hence blue collar / manufacturing shortage). They're not the reserve you're looking for.

The actual reserve are basically overeducated kids still too proud to take factory/vocational job because it's beneath them. They're already where the jobs are, but won't make the jump until sufficient stress. It's akin to US (well also EU), which has skilled/semiskilled blue collar shortage because people don't want to do those jobs even if they're well compensated. Difference is US/EU also has broad labour shortage, they simply don't have the bodies. Especially in high skill / STEM. Hard to get that literature major to engineer or other shortage jobs US needs filling. Opposite is true for PRC who has broad skilled labour surplus who can be retrained to work lower skilled jobs if desperate. That compsci graduate can assemble widgets if his life depends on it. Problem is of course is credentialled kids want to paper push. Will take few years for active cultural change to drive people into blue collar.

Re: China's Zombie Economy

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fundamentally China’s huge population means they will overtake the US. Government mismanagement, corruption, and capital imbalances can slow it down but the march of progress is inevitable.

Presumably you think India will overtake China then. Is that accurate? Their population is already larger and is expected to grow further while China’s is declining rapidly.

They are in a slightly worse place due to even worse governance, but yes, there is an enormous amount of untapped potential primed to explode. India also has a more serious global warming headwind to fight.
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