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Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

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Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#261

The enthusiasm with geoengineering among the HN community is worrisome. Not sure which computing analogy would drive home the complete recklessness of this mentality but the Earth is not something you can reboot to the last working state once you harebrained patch implodes. It is true that we have been slowly geoengineering for ages (initially unwittingly, recently with eyes wide open) and it is also true that our mo…

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Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#262
post #226

The enthusiasm with geoengineering among the HN community is worrisome. Not sure which computing analogy would drive home the complete recklessness of this mentality but the Earth is not something you can reboot to the last working state once you harebrained patch implodes. It is true that we have been slowly geoengineering for ages (initially unwittingly, recently with eyes wide open) and it is also true that our mo…

It is very uncomplicated in fact: Most people here on HN are rationally capable of understanding the challenges humanity faces right now. What many aren't capable of is accepting the conclusion that we all have to change the way we live and quite possibly even the way we organize society in order to mitigate the irreperable problems our way of living has already caused. Deep down they might suspect this is necessary,…

Why would I accept that there's this doomsday barreling towards us at high speed, and the only way to avoid it is economic devastation and serfdom for my grandchildren?

That sounds an awful lot like a long con.

Most rational people have arrived at the very reasonable conclusion that the more extreme the danger is, the more justified we are in attempting cutting edge countermeasures. So when the response we get back is "oh no, you can't do that, anything but that!"... the more it sounds like it was a grift all along.

This requires no conspiracy, by the way. Large groups of people can subconsciously coordinate in these ways without even realizing they're doing it. Just takes a bit of groupthink and a small dab of neuroticism.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#263
post #226

The enthusiasm with geoengineering among the HN community is worrisome. Not sure which computing analogy would drive home the complete recklessness of this mentality but the Earth is not something you can reboot to the last working state once you harebrained patch implodes. It is true that we have been slowly geoengineering for ages (initially unwittingly, recently with eyes wide open) and it is also true that our mo…

It is very uncomplicated in fact: Most people here on HN are rationally capable of understanding the challenges humanity faces right now. What many aren't capable of is accepting the conclusion that we all have to change the way we live and quite possibly even the way we organize society in order to mitigate the irreperable problems our way of living has already caused. Deep down they might suspect this is necessary,…

> What many aren't capable of is accepting the conclusion that we all have to change the way we live and quite possibly even the way we organize society in order to mitigate the irreperable problems our way of living has already caused

That's because this has never actually been shown. So many people think it has, but almost none have ever seen an actual attempt at a QALY calculation for no climate change mitigation. If you've actually seen one I'd love you to link it!

Mostly it's lots of handwaving, but attempting to quantify things is actually important so we can know what measures are worthwhile (e.g. if climate change was an existential risk this century then threatening with nukes any country emitting CO2 would be reasonable).

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#264
If you feel bad about this, perhaps go and find some Just stop oil protesters and take out your frustration on them. Perhaps drag them around by their hair, or kick them in the heads. It's easy, they're sitting on the floor, so it's low hanging fruit.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#266
post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is very uncomplicated in fact: Most people here on HN are rationally capable of understanding the challenges humanity faces right now. What many aren't capable of is accepting the conclusion that we all have to change the way we live and quite possibly even the way we organize society in order to mitigate the irreperable problems our way of living has already caused. Deep down they might suspect this is necessary,…

I want everyone to be able to live in a well insulated flat powered by renewable energy walking and biking distance from their daily needs, and with public transport (and rarely-needed EV share) for the rest. Combined with a low meat low dairy diet and less disposable consumer junk it seems like we could get a long ways with an arguably better quality of life. Maybe work half time too.

"Stop eating nice food" is a nonstarter, as is "give up personal all weather mobility", have these as a policy positions and we'll get 3 degrees rises as those would be a smaller quality of life decrease for the average American.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#267
post #170

The enthusiasm with geoengineering among the HN community is worrisome. Not sure which computing analogy would drive home the complete recklessness of this mentality but the Earth is not something you can reboot to the last working state once you harebrained patch implodes. It is true that we have been slowly geoengineering for ages (initially unwittingly, recently with eyes wide open) and it is also true that our mo…

There is no alternative. We have "aggravated the situation" (as you put it) beyond recovery. Doing nothing will now surely lead to an unacceptable outcome. We are going to have to fix it, or resign ourselves to a huge shrinking of the habitable region of the planet, with the hunger/famine/war that will accompany that. Obviously we can always make things worse. But when doing nothing is unacceptable, we have to start…

> huge shrinking of the habitable region of the planet.

How big? 1%? 10%? 50%?

This matters.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More people should upvote your post. If there is a rank of how easily humanity can destroy itself and make the earth uninhabitable for itself geoengineering is probably second only to thermonuclear war. Also I object to the use of the term geo-engineering. Engineering supposes we know exactly what the outcomes will be following centuries/decades of experience with similar systems. Including many failed experiments. T…

Aren't you confusing it with sea of Aral / Caspian sea? Black sea indeed had a catastrophe but that one predated humans.

Yes, came here to say this as well.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#269
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No problem with this, apart from convincing like 5-6 billion people to cut their standards of living to half. Also less people is needed, few children. Sounds like impossible now without concentrated media effort and all ruling parties probably would lose for decades.

5-6 billion people are going to have their living standards and reproductive opportunities destroyed anyway. If not worse. But you're really just remaking the point that as a species we're incapable of intelligent collective management of our resources.

Coordination problems are really really really hard. You shouldn't be dismissive about them.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#270
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No problem with this, apart from convincing like 5-6 billion people to cut their standards of living to half. Also less people is needed, few children. Sounds like impossible now without concentrated media effort and all ruling parties probably would lose for decades.

5-6 billion people are going to have their living standards and reproductive opportunities destroyed anyway. If not worse. But you're really just remaking the point that as a species we're incapable of intelligent collective management of our resources.

You are right. But good luck convincing those billions to voluntarily reduce their living standards. I fear change will have to come involuntarily.
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