Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures • Hacker News Board

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#191

Post by happytiger » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 6:38 AM UTC

nologic01 wrote: post #156

The enthusiasm with geoengineering among the HN community is worrisome. Not sure which computing analogy would drive home the complete recklessness of this mentality but the Earth is not something you can reboot to the last working state once you harebrained patch implodes. It is true that we have been slowly geoengineering for ages (initially unwittingly, recently with eyes wide open) and it is also true that our mo…

Linear thinking is how we take action. Leaning back observation is how we analyze.

It’s cool to analyze but it can paralyze us into observation and this situation benefits from the former because the consequences of being wrong is so profoundly dire.

Generally agree with you, but why not be conservative when it comes to issues like global warming and species extinction and avoid catastrophe if it turns out to be as bad as it could be?

That takes linear thinking and action now. We should also analyze, but it’s logical to take action too.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#192

Post by developer93 » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 6:39 AM UTC

rplst8 wrote: post #20

The fact that the loss of particulate matter in the atmosphere increases warming has been known for at least two decades. This is not surprising to me. It started years ago when scrubbers began to be installed on coal power plants and continued with low sulphur diesel requirements that started 15 years ago.

Depends on the size of the particle, no? Some sizes can have the opposite effect afaik.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#193

Post by Marcan » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 6:45 AM UTC

taftster wrote: post #59

dmbche wrote: post #2

Related article from 2018 if anyone wants to read more : https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/01/22/67402/were-about...

Thank you. I honestly had no context for the discussion, the linked tweet didn't really much help. This article helped clear up the concept and I appreciate the link.

There is also this video from Hank Green discussing this topic a little more:

https://youtu.be/dk8pwE3IByg

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#194

Post by sz3 » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 6:49 AM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #187

sz3 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no alternative. We have "aggravated the situation" (as you put it) beyond recovery. Doing nothing will now surely lead to an unacceptable outcome. We are going to have to fix it, or resign ourselves to a huge shrinking of the habitable region of the planet, with the hunger/famine/war that will accompany that. Obviously we can always make things worse. But when doing nothing is unacceptable, we have to start…

[flagged]

Well, hopefully we have some time to practice first. Because we're the only person in the room and the patient is bleeding out.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#195

Post by sz3 » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 6:51 AM UTC

MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #185

sz3 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no alternative. We have "aggravated the situation" (as you put it) beyond recovery. Doing nothing will now surely lead to an unacceptable outcome. We are going to have to fix it, or resign ourselves to a huge shrinking of the habitable region of the planet, with the hunger/famine/war that will accompany that. Obviously we can always make things worse. But when doing nothing is unacceptable, we have to start…

This is a good example of the lack of epistemic humility OP was taking about.

We don't have the time to sit back and let epistemic knowledge wash over us. We know more or less what needs to happen (less sunlight in, more heat out). All attempts to resolve the situation require taking some risk, and it'll be impossible to quantify all those risks until we try them.

At the risk of stating the obvious: we need to measure every weird idea we try, and do our best to isolate the variables. Easier said than done. But we broke it, it's our problem now.

Talking about humility: an excess of humility leads to fatalism. Some is good, but not too much if you want anything to happen. We're talking about fixing the ecosystem of a planet, of course it's ambitious.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#196

Post by szundi » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 6:52 AM UTC

lm28469 wrote: post #189

sz3 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no alternative. We have "aggravated the situation" (as you put it) beyond recovery. Doing nothing will now surely lead to an unacceptable outcome. We are going to have to fix it, or resign ourselves to a huge shrinking of the habitable region of the planet, with the hunger/famine/war that will accompany that. Obviously we can always make things worse. But when doing nothing is unacceptable, we have to start…

The only viable alternative to doing nothing is stopping our quest for infinite growth in all sectors. You're the proverbial boiling frog

No problem with this, apart from convincing like 5-6 billion people to cut their standards of living to half. Also less people is needed, few children. Sounds like impossible now without concentrated media effort and all ruling parties probably would lose for decades.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#197

Post by iamflimflam1 » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 6:53 AM UTC

I’ve unfortunately come to the conclusion that we are buggered.

Watching politics in the U.K. and the rest of the world I’m seeing politicians realise that they can tap into the populist idea that anything green is “the elites trying to control and tax you”.

All they care about us short term election prospects.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#198

Post by wahern » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 6:54 AM UTC

lm28469 wrote: post #189

sz3 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no alternative. We have "aggravated the situation" (as you put it) beyond recovery. Doing nothing will now surely lead to an unacceptable outcome. We are going to have to fix it, or resign ourselves to a huge shrinking of the habitable region of the planet, with the hunger/famine/war that will accompany that. Obviously we can always make things worse. But when doing nothing is unacceptable, we have to start…

The only viable alternative to doing nothing is stopping our quest for infinite growth in all sectors. You're the proverbial boiling frog

If all human carbon emissions magically ceased today anthropomorphic global warming and its concomitant environmental changes will still continue to unfold for the next few centuries or millennia, at a minimum, before settling into a new (albeit shifted) "natural" evolution. It will take millions of years for the human carbon emissions to be cycled back into the lithosphere.

In this sense, continued emissions only accelerate and compound the current process unfolding. Global warming as it exists today cannot be stopped passively.

That was the previous poster's point. We can infer that their unstated objective is the end of global warming in the near future (i.e. in the next few centuries), the achievement of which necessarily requires active intervention.

I might infer that your unstated objective is not the end of global warming, but the end of ongoing human interference per se. That's an entirely different objective, albeit no less legitimate.

If I'm correct (and I'm confident in my assessment wrt to the previous poster), then you two are talking past each other.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#199

Post by blackoil » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 6:54 AM UTC

petre wrote: post #91

aCoreyJ wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are ways to make clouds and have this effect that don't involve sulfur! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening

You know what happens to soil when it rains salt from the clouds, right? Sulphur at least is more natural, as it's also released by volcanoes. https://extension.psu.edu/sulfur-fertility-management-for-gr...

We can do it over oceans where the impact should be limited.

Re: Reduction of sulfur emissions from ships may be causing rising sea temperatures

#200

Post by Kuinox » Sat, Aug 05, 2023, 6:57 AM UTC

sfvisser wrote: post #168

nologic01 wrote: post #156

The enthusiasm with geoengineering among the HN community is worrisome. Not sure which computing analogy would drive home the complete recklessness of this mentality but the Earth is not something you can reboot to the last working state once you harebrained patch implodes. It is true that we have been slowly geoengineering for ages (initially unwittingly, recently with eyes wide open) and it is also true that our mo…

I highly doubt many proponents of geoengineering think in terms of rebooting or isolating individual factors. The appeal of geoengineering is you can nudge specific systems slowly into another direction. You can start small and observe expected effects and unwanted side-effects. Reduction of sulfer emissions by ships is an interesting starting point to learn something.

It is accidental geo-engineering.