Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

abc.net.au

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 189 posts

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#91

Post by josho »

poutine wrote: post #79
IAmGraydon wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like there must be some other influence here, and the Tonga eruption is a good candidate. That's not to say this isn't already exacerbated by existing human-derived climate change, but the way the temperature leaps off the chart starting in April is not like the gradual upward trend we see with climate change. It makes utterly no sense from that perspective. Something external to climate change has to be influ…

Apparently warming is compounded by the eruption, low sulphur shipping fuel rules, low amounts of Saharan dust and changes by El Niño according to this: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shippin...

It would seem then that this year is yet another early warning sign. Perhaps we got lucky to get a glimpse of what is coming and in a sane world, this would motivate us to finally take real and significant action. Unfortunately, the last few years have demonstrated that we clearly don't live in a sane world and of course, we'll ignore this warning too.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#92

Post by convolvatron »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #56
tosser0001 wrote: post #16

Part of this may have been due to the Hunga Tonga eruption which injected an tremendous amount of water vapor into the upper atmosphere https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1685971656198545408 https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unpr...

I feel like there must be some other influence here, and the Tonga eruption is a good candidate. That's not to say this isn't already exacerbated by existing human-derived climate change, but the way the temperature leaps off the chart starting in April is not like the gradual upward trend we see with climate change. It makes utterly no sense from that perspective. Something external to climate change has to be influ…

maybe a lot of people are tired of hearing people flog uniformed opinions and third-hand speculation. its not really a very productive discussion.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#93

Post by mdp2021 »

Vox_Leone wrote: post #81

Not dismissing Global Heating, I’d point out that Northern Argentina, Western Paraguay have both semi arid savannas and steppes to arid desert climates. It is not no stranger to high temperature anytime of year, neither to the sudden steep subtropics warm up midwinter known locally as ‘veranito' [little summer]. Here in SE SA plateau it's been a normal to cooler winter.

> have both semi arid savannas and steppes to arid desert climates. It is not no stranger to high temperature anytime of year, neither to the sudden steep subtropics warm up midwinter known locally as ‘veranito'

Yes, but similar record was last seen ~70 years ago for the peak in Chile and ~110 years ago in Buenos Aires. So, the matter is about "how frequently how much"

> Here in SE SA plateau it's been a normal to cooler winter

Yes but this is exactly the "stochastic" part of randomness, i.e. making it difficult to assess a phenomenon from a restricted perspective which is not the big picture.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#94

Post by mdp2021 »

WA wrote: post #30
tantalor wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Explain how this is clickbait.

Sure: - "Winter" in the headline makes it sound more extreme. It’s information-free, because winter and summer temperatures close to the equator are very similar. - Numbers are given in absolutes when convenient to paint a picture and are without meaning without a proper reference. - References are sketchy: "in winter as hot as Europe in summer". "This would be weird in New South Wales". Ok then. - Color scheme of ma…

> close to the equator

The peak anomaly was in Vicuña, Chile, at -30°Lat - i.e. Puerto Alegre, Maseru, Perth-Brisbane. Symmetrically, that would be Houston, Cairo, Delhi, Shanghai...

The tropic of Capricorn is at -23.4°Lat.

The peak anomaly is well below the tropic. And Buenos Aires (where the other biggest anomaly was) is several degrees further south.

Update:

> But Buenos Aires is only 5°C hotter

I think it refers to the previous highest record well over one century ago. It says,

> Buenos Aires set a daily record for the start of August with its high of 30.1C - more than 5 degrees above the previous daily record, and 12C warmer than its August average

(BTW: Wikipedia does not agree with those records in the "Climate data" table, but anyway.)

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#95

Post by localplume »

print_goto_ten wrote: post #46
Octokiddie wrote: post #41

The alarmist tone of this article inspires zero confidence in the reporting. For example: > Climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera went so far as to call it [35 C+ temperatures in winter] one of the most "extreme weather events the world has ever seen". Assuming the quote is not taken out of context and Herrera did say it, I'm not sure the facts are on Herrera's side. The world likely saw more extrem…

Anyone who is not a denier like yourself knows dam well he meant "recorded history".

[dead]

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#96

Post by wredue »

mint2 wrote: post #83
IAmGraydon wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like there must be some other influence here, and the Tonga eruption is a good candidate. That's not to say this isn't already exacerbated by existing human-derived climate change, but the way the temperature leaps off the chart starting in April is not like the gradual upward trend we see with climate change. It makes utterly no sense from that perspective. Something external to climate change has to be influ…

“ Unfortunately, it also seems like a lot of people are hesitant to even discuss this possibility for fear of being ostracized by the mob.” This assessment is the same that a climate denier would make - it’s essentially climate gas lighting. Why do I say this? Because the real reason it’s hard to discuss events with nuance is the highly vocal contingent of climate deniers that are looking for any single word or event…

[flagged]

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#98

Post by throwaway290 »

TremendousJudge wrote: post #87
throwaway290 wrote: post #77

Do I misunderstand their numbers? It looks like in Buenos Aires historical maximum for Aug is +35 degrees, right? And so far it got only up to 30 degrees? Not to say the heat is not real ofc. Where I am the summer is super hot, in July it came within less than 1 degree of all time maximum on record for the month, though I don't think it broke the record after all... and this with up to 70% humidity, I nearly passed o…

I'm located near Buenos Aires. There was a similar hot spell several weeks ago, mid-July. Record high in July is (according to Wikipedia) 30.2C, and I don't have the data but this record could have been very well exceeded during those extremely warm days.

It looks like 23 July, one day. It got up to about 28 degrees. Between 10-20 July I see nothing hotter than 20 degrees. This is US GFS data. Maybe I'm wrong. Also looking only at BA, it was hotter to the north west

There's high altitude winds from too warm pacific tropic oceans to south america, that is probably involved in the process I think

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#99

Post by irrational »

gonzo41 wrote: post #50
irrational wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is going to cause everyone reading this to die decades earlier?

Read up on 35 wet bulb night time temperatures.

Yeah, but, I’m reading this and that won’t be an issue where I live. So it must be something else that will kill everyone reading this decades earlier.
Post reply on HN