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Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

abc.net.au

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Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#41

Post by Octokiddie »

The alarmist tone of this article inspires zero confidence in the reporting. For example:

> Climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera went so far as to call it [35 C+ temperatures in winter] one of the most "extreme weather events the world has ever seen".

Assuming the quote is not taken out of context and Herrera did say it, I'm not sure the facts are on Herrera's side. The world likely saw more extreme "weather events," such as the one that happened at the end of the Pleistocene. That's when the half-mile-thick layer of ice sitting over the northeastern part of North America melted to expose the land beneath.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#42

Post by akasakahakada »

Just for tonga folks. I remember reading this yesterday and they calculated that the effect of tonga only make at best 0.1 degree C increase in temperature. However what human did is 1.x degree C. That is order of magnitude difference => tonga is almost irrelevant.

https://e360.yale.edu/digest/summer-2023-extreme-heat-causes

edit: previous claimed 2.x is in degree F, here we global citizens use international standard unit degree C which convert to 1.x.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#43

Post by deschutes »

ben_w wrote: post #18
timmg wrote: post #7

Lots of crazy things in the weather this year. The obvious thing is to blame climate change. But these are pretty sudden and extremely unusual. I don’t think this is at all what is predicted. I wonder how much the Hunga Tonga eruption of last year affected the weather this year. I think it injected some crazy amount of water into the atmosphere.

Wasn’t that about 146 million tons of water? It’s a lot in one go, but the atmosphere has about 2.5% water vapour, which is a total of ~ 1.3e17 kg.

Per https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37001387 it's not just mass but elevation. The eruption was significant in the upper atmosphere.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#44

Post by jl6 »

timmg wrote: post #7

Lots of crazy things in the weather this year. The obvious thing is to blame climate change. But these are pretty sudden and extremely unusual. I don’t think this is at all what is predicted. I wonder how much the Hunga Tonga eruption of last year affected the weather this year. I think it injected some crazy amount of water into the atmosphere.

It’s true that climate messaging can be counterproductive. Summer headlines saying “hot day proves climate change” set people up to believe winter headlines saying “cold day disproves climate change”.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#45

Post by flagged24 »

ben_w wrote: post #18
timmg wrote: post #7

Lots of crazy things in the weather this year. The obvious thing is to blame climate change. But these are pretty sudden and extremely unusual. I don’t think this is at all what is predicted. I wonder how much the Hunga Tonga eruption of last year affected the weather this year. I think it injected some crazy amount of water into the atmosphere.

Wasn’t that about 146 million tons of water? It’s a lot in one go, but the atmosphere has about 2.5% water vapour, which is a total of ~ 1.3e17 kg.

It was injected into the stratosphere. Apparently adding as much as 5%. It makes a big difference at what altitude the vapor resides in relation to warming or cooling effects.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#46

Post by print_goto_ten »

Octokiddie wrote: post #41

The alarmist tone of this article inspires zero confidence in the reporting. For example: > Climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera went so far as to call it [35 C+ temperatures in winter] one of the most "extreme weather events the world has ever seen". Assuming the quote is not taken out of context and Herrera did say it, I'm not sure the facts are on Herrera's side. The world likely saw more extrem…

Anyone who is not a denier like yourself knows dam well he meant "recorded history".

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#47

Post by LudwigNagasena »

tantalor wrote: post #10
WA wrote: post #4

An interesting phenomenon drowned in a clickbait article. I sometimes understand the lunatics of the "climate change is a hoax" movement.

Explain how this is clickbait.

Well, if it isn’t click bait then it just means… that climatology can’t predict such events.

“Winter temperatures are above 35 in South America and it is exactly what climatologists predicted given our actions” — nice, they know what they are doing, they earn credibility.

“Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief” — so something extremely unlikely happened according to your models, maybe your understanding is wrong? Or it is really an “anomaly” and things are going to get back to normal soon?

The implication that something that no one has foreseen happened and, therefore, it proves that people who haven’t foreseen it were right is ridiculous.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#48

Post by pier25 »

retrac wrote: post #2

The current sea temperature anomaly is extreme. You can see it plotted since 1980 here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ The dark black line that diverges in March is this year to date.

These anomalies will become more common and more extreme over the coming decades.

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#49

Post by polygamous_bat »

print_goto_ten wrote: post #46
Octokiddie wrote: post #41

The alarmist tone of this article inspires zero confidence in the reporting. For example: > Climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera went so far as to call it [35 C+ temperatures in winter] one of the most "extreme weather events the world has ever seen". Assuming the quote is not taken out of context and Herrera did say it, I'm not sure the facts are on Herrera's side. The world likely saw more extrem…

Anyone who is not a denier like yourself knows dam well he meant "recorded history".

> B-but what about when the earth was molten rock a few billion years ago? We _can't_ sacrifice next quarter's profits for this!

Re: Winter temperatures above 35C in South America leave climatologists in disbelief

#50

Post by gonzo41 »

irrational wrote: post #37
revscat wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lifespan of everyone reading this has decreased by several decades.

What is going to cause everyone reading this to die decades earlier?

Read up on 35 wet bulb night time temperatures.
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