Live data from Hacker News

Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

news.ycombinator.com

171–180 of 211 posts

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#171

> 750 Wh/kg is great. To put it mildly. Energy density in the current leaders in that category, lithium ion batteries, 250-270 wh/kg. So, provided a similar or better ratio of watt-hours to unit of volume, we’re basically looking at tripling the energy storage of EVs or significant weight reduction, in the ideal scenario of this design being a safe and cost effective replacement for current batteries.

400 Wh / kg is the threshold that makes VTOL high altitude (20+ km) electric aircraft feasible according to Elon Musk in one of his interviews (from memory, I might have some of that wrong).

Advantages: no runways needed at airports, can get back some energy on the way down through regenerative braking, more efficient propulsion and less air resistance at higher altitude (electric motors don't need oxygen to function), no pollution from combustion.

Sounds amazing.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#172
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current lead acid batteries can do this as well. Smells awful and pretty unsafe situation. H2S is quite dangerous but it’s rare that they’d create an IDLH situation as long as there’s a bit of breeze.

i'd be surprised if lead-acid batteries produce detectable quantities of hydrogen sulfide; isn't their sulfur bound up in an extremely stable oxoanion? still, https://web.archive.org/web/20161005164308/http://www.wesh.c... certainly doesn't sound like sulfuric acid

I've discovered damaged lead acid batteries in equipment by following the rotten egg smell back to it's source. Twice, both small current 12V DC batteries.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#173

> 750 Wh/kg is great. To put it mildly. Energy density in the current leaders in that category, lithium ion batteries, 250-270 wh/kg. So, provided a similar or better ratio of watt-hours to unit of volume, we’re basically looking at tripling the energy storage of EVs or significant weight reduction, in the ideal scenario of this design being a safe and cost effective replacement for current batteries.

Actually CATL announced a 500 wh/kg battery a few months ago. Solid state and aimed at the aviation market. Shipping this year apparently. There are a few other companies targeting that market. For cars, much lower density sodium ion and lfp batteries are what they are producing in volume. Sodium ion especially is becoming popular for the kind of cheap/modestly priced cars Toyota is famous for mass producing.

Those higher density batteries are great when cost doesn't matter (like in the aviation market) but cost is the only variable that matters when it comes to mass producing electrical vehicles. The game is not who can build the most ridiculous car for 100K but who can produce the most useful car for 10K. Toyota is going to have their ass handed to them very soon in that market unless they get their act together.

People that obsess over range are missing a few important points. With fast charge times, range matters less, and if your car is fully charged every morning, the times when you need to charge before you get home reduce to the rare occasions when you actually drive the cars maximum range in a single day. Which for the average driver isn't that often. The point of having a large battery is reducing those occasions to almost zero. If that matters to you, just spend more money and you'll be fine. There's no need for new batteries for this.

The point of a having a smaller battery is that the few times per year that you have to stop to fast charge them isn't worth the price difference in terms of time spent. Especially when that time is basically only around 30-40 minutes. Companies that operate vehicle fleets get this. They get the battery size they need, not the largest one. That's why most electrical vans have batteries that aren't bigger than those in cars. Smaller even sometimes. Smaller battery means more useful load. The reduced range is fine.

Toyota doesn't need a new science fiction battery, it needs battery production infrastructure producing batteries by the twh per year. Nothing else is going to enable them to mass produce cars at the same rate they are producing ICE cars. They are not building those factories yet. I'm not sure what they are waiting for at this point. But they are running out of time. Cheap EVs are going to be on the market pretty soon. They already are on the market in China. The main constraint for that is battery production volume. Some companies are investing in that as fast as they can; Toyota so far isn't.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#174

> 750 Wh/kg is great. To put it mildly. Energy density in the current leaders in that category, lithium ion batteries, 250-270 wh/kg. So, provided a similar or better ratio of watt-hours to unit of volume, we’re basically looking at tripling the energy storage of EVs or significant weight reduction, in the ideal scenario of this design being a safe and cost effective replacement for current batteries.

400 Wh / kg is the threshold that makes VTOL high altitude (20+ km) electric aircraft feasible according to Elon Musk in one of his interviews (from memory, I might have some of that wrong). Advantages: no runways needed at airports, can get back some energy on the way down through regenerative braking, more efficient propulsion and less air resistance at higher altitude (electric motors don't need oxygen to function…

The state of the art for VTOL right now is around 100-150 miles with much lower density batteries. The most efficient ones actually have wings and transition to flying like a regular plane. Larger batteries will of course help and they are actually hitting the market this year at around 500wh/kg. Bigger batteries will follow in a few years. The future is now.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#175
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the next decade you will see more reliance on technology that becomes cheaper than simply throwing lithium at the problem. It's the same thing with many techs. In the 70's we thought we would run out of oil by 2000, and a lot of asshats in the 80's and 90's crowed about how stupid those so-called experts were. What happened in the 80's and 90's was ground sensing radar found more oil, horizontal drilling found way…

That's not what Peak Oil means, but I think you know this. The cost of oil will never return to pre-2000s levels because meeting demand necessitates more expensive extraction technologies like shale and offshore. In that sense (the correct one), the prediction of peak oil by 2000 was remarkably accurate.

If you adjust by inflation oil is now cheaper than it was between 1980 and 85.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remain skeptical until the products are real and affordable. No reason to buy an electric car now if they'll have potentially double the range in a few years.

By that logic it never makes sense to buy a computer. It'll be obsolete in 18 months! Electric cars are cheaper to operate that gas RIGHT NOW, with less maintenance. No reason to hold off just because they're going to get better.

Isn’t that wildly dependent on the cost of electricity and gas in the area you live in?

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You got it, swappable batteries is the key to EV mass-adoption. Do people care about range with internal combustion vehicles? Not really, if they can get between gas stations. It takes very little time to refill, and each vehicle (regardless of manufacturer) uses the same stuff. The trouble is that standardizing when there is hot competition is very political. Things need to cool down a little before it can be done,…

> You don't want government to get involved early when engineering is involved. Apple would argue the EU was stepping on their toes by imposing USB-C. Maybe whatever proprietary connector Apple comes up with is better in some technical ways. But that benefit has to be weighed against the emergent benefits of standardization. Maybe 120V AC isn’t objectively the best. But isn’t it nice you don’t have to think about it…

> Maybe 120V AC isn’t l objectively the best

Just like miles and gallons..

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet another problem that could have been avoided if government had had the foresight to enforce a technology-agnostic swappable battery standard.

You got it, swappable batteries is the key to EV mass-adoption. Do people care about range with internal combustion vehicles? Not really, if they can get between gas stations. It takes very little time to refill, and each vehicle (regardless of manufacturer) uses the same stuff. The trouble is that standardizing when there is hot competition is very political. Things need to cool down a little before it can be done,…

EVs with swappable batteries would be inferior to those with fixed ones in many ways (weight/size/aerodynamics) the swapping part and all the related infrastructure would be very expensive. I just don’t how could this ever be competitive with fast charging.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet another problem that could have been avoided if government had had the foresight to enforce a technology-agnostic swappable battery standard.

The only real practical version of this would be an additional range extension battery that is towed. Or synthfuel+generator, or even hydrogen (and man, this is like the ONLY time I ever can see practical use of hydrogen). Which is also an effective strategy for semis / RVs / towing with EVs. The way to get best range+efficiency out of an EV these days is cell-to-pack where the pack is basically integrated into the f…

Yes, frame-integrated cells are optimal from a bang/buck standpoint. However, the advantages gained by using standardized swappable batteries would be overwhelmingly dominant in comparison.

If someone doesn't immediately and intuitively get that -- and you're hardly alone in that respect -- I've found that no rational, math-based argument will persuade them. The ship has sailed, your side won, and now we all get to deal with the consequences.

Batteries with this tech, sulfur, alu-air, etc will triple the density for half the current cost by then.

Exactly! But you will have to buy a new car to take advantage of them, because your current car was designed as a battery with wheels rather than as a drivetrain powered by a battery. It didn't have to be that way, but again... your side won.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You got it, swappable batteries is the key to EV mass-adoption. Do people care about range with internal combustion vehicles? Not really, if they can get between gas stations. It takes very little time to refill, and each vehicle (regardless of manufacturer) uses the same stuff. The trouble is that standardizing when there is hot competition is very political. Things need to cool down a little before it can be done,…

> You don't want government to get involved early when engineering is involved. Apple would argue the EU was stepping on their toes by imposing USB-C. Maybe whatever proprietary connector Apple comes up with is better in some technical ways. But that benefit has to be weighed against the emergent benefits of standardization. Maybe 120V AC isn’t objectively the best. But isn’t it nice you don’t have to think about it…

> Maybe 120V AC isn’t objectively the best.

It is not indeed, 240V AC is better as you need only half the current for the same amount of power.

Post reply on HN