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Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

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Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#51

Post by Detrytus »

jackmott42 wrote: post #16
hinkley wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are batteries still on a roughly 3-4% annual rate of improvement? Or has that shifted? So,e of that will have been aerodynamics (the industry is slowly boiling the frog on styling vs aerodynamics) and motor efficiency, which has climbed a lot in the last 15 years.

energy density hasn't really changed for 15 years, price dropped a lot though, but price drop has also paused recently. There is no telling if any progress will be made or not. Maybe! Maybe not.

Actually, when demand for EVs goes up, lithium mining won't be able to keep up, so in the next decade or so we'll see steep increase in battery prices.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#52

Post by lostlogin »

xsmasher wrote: post #33
linuxftw wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remain skeptical until the products are real and affordable. No reason to buy an electric car now if they'll have potentially double the range in a few years.

By that logic it never makes sense to buy a computer. It'll be obsolete in 18 months! Electric cars are cheaper to operate that gas RIGHT NOW, with less maintenance. No reason to hold off just because they're going to get better.

For a Leaf the dealers response to ‘where do I go to get it serviced?’ was ‘don’t bother, nothing to service.

That’s a slight exaggeration but not by much (diff oil needs changing and the tyres need rotating).

It’s amazing.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#53

Post by jackmott42 »

megaman821 wrote: post #12

This will be neat if it works but really there isn't going to be a huge market for 500+ mile cars vs the cost savings of getting a 300-400 mile car. The exception might be road-trippers and people who do a lot of towing but I suspect that is a much smaller population than people tend to think.

Just people who go on road trips with 2 or more mountain bikes need this. This is not theoretical, a Model Y has its range ruined with 2 or more mountain bikes attached to the exterior. Like ~140 miles max on our trip with 4 mountain bikes. And then you tend to go to more remote areas so that makes it even worse.

So yes, our family is eagerly awaiting a 500 mile range ev

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#54

Post by roomey »

oblio wrote: post #13
canoebuilder wrote: post #6

> 750 Wh/kg is great. To put it mildly. Energy density in the current leaders in that category, lithium ion batteries, 250-270 wh/kg. So, provided a similar or better ratio of watt-hours to unit of volume, we’re basically looking at tripling the energy storage of EVs or significant weight reduction, in the ideal scenario of this design being a safe and cost effective replacement for current batteries.

At that energy density, can't they just wrap the entire smaller battery in 2 layers of ceramic and steel or something and just side-step the entire safety discussion OP is mentioning? Yes, I know it's probably a silly solution :-)

If they could coat, or layer it, in a reactant or catalyst that made the hydrogen sulphide has less harmful or toxic it may work, so if the battery is damaged some of the toxic gas will be reduced to something less harmful.

Maybe a chemist would know if this is possible

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#55

Post by Detrytus »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #42
ultrarunner wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wikipedia says 13000 Wh/kg, but you have to keep in mind that due to physics, wear considerations, and emissions regulation, most cars are only 20-40% efficient. At a 20% efficiency, that's 2600 Wh/kg. This is further constrained by gear ratios, meaning not all power is available at all times.

Exactly. Gasoline is much, much more energy dense than Li-Ion batteries, but in terms of dollars per mile, an electric car is 2x-4x cheaper to drive than an ICE car. That's because an internal combustion engine wastes the majority of gasoline's energy as heat, while electric motors use most of the battery's energy to move the car.

> an electric car is 2x-4x cheaper to drive than an ICE car

It hugely depends on the cost of electricity. Last year some European countries (Netherlands IIRC) had those so high, that it was actually more expensive to drive EV than ICE.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#56

Post by linuxftw »

xsmasher wrote: post #33
linuxftw wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remain skeptical until the products are real and affordable. No reason to buy an electric car now if they'll have potentially double the range in a few years.

By that logic it never makes sense to buy a computer. It'll be obsolete in 18 months! Electric cars are cheaper to operate that gas RIGHT NOW, with less maintenance. No reason to hold off just because they're going to get better.

Companies literally made this calculus decades ago during the boom years of Moore's law when it came to purchasing computer hardware.

> Electric cars are cheaper to operate that gas RIGHT NOW, with less maintenance.

My timeline for owning a vehicle is 15+ years. I'm not going to buy something that is instantly obsolete. I'm also not going to buy all this vendor lock-in nonsense all these EVs come with. If they were basic rides with an electric drivetrain, sure, but they try to make everything the millennium falcon.

You should look up how much fun it is getting service and parts on a new vehicle nowadays. You're rolling the dice that you won't burn down your home and/or have a lawn ornament because you can't get parts.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#57

Post by iamatworknow »

hamandcheese wrote: post #35
ultrarunner wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it could only reduce the weight of current EVs that would be a win. Most electric vehicles weight 1000 lbs or more than their ICE counterparts, and in the extreme case of the Hummer, the total weight is over 9000 lbs. Vehicles seem to be continuously ballooning in size, so whether that continues or eventual legislation forces more reasonable sizes, higher energy density would be very welcome.

When will this meme die? A Model 3 is very comparable in weight to an Audi S3. The Hyundai Ionic 5 is comparable weight and interior volume to a Toyota Rav 4. The Hummer is a monster either way and is not a good sample.

I always bought into this "meme", in part because just about every EV review I've seen mentions having to compensate for the extra weight which makes those cars less performant at times, so decided to look it up based on your quoted vehicles here, and figured I'd save anyone else the same search:

A 2023 Rav 4 has a curb weight of between 3615 and 3775 lb [1]

A 2023 Ioniq 5 has a curb weight of between 3968 and 4663 lb [2]

So a difference of between 193 and 1048 pounds between the two. That's actually a lot less than I expected, at least on the low end. 193 pounds is basically equivalent to just having one extra person in the car.

As noted in replies, though, these _do_ take into account different drive trains, so the comparison is not not great from the start.

[1] https://www.toyota.com/rav4/2023/features/mpg_other_price/44...

[2] https://www.hyundaiusa.com/us/en/vehicles/ioniq-5/compare-sp...

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#58

Post by [deleted] »

alostpuppy wrote: post #17
canoebuilder wrote: post #6

> 750 Wh/kg is great. To put it mildly. Energy density in the current leaders in that category, lithium ion batteries, 250-270 wh/kg. So, provided a similar or better ratio of watt-hours to unit of volume, we’re basically looking at tripling the energy storage of EVs or significant weight reduction, in the ideal scenario of this design being a safe and cost effective replacement for current batteries.

Out of curiosity, What is the wh/kg for petrol?

[deleted]

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#59

Post by lowbloodsugar »

megaman821 wrote: post #12

This will be neat if it works but really there isn't going to be a huge market for 500+ mile cars vs the cost savings of getting a 300-400 mile car. The exception might be road-trippers and people who do a lot of towing but I suspect that is a much smaller population than people tend to think.

More energy doesn't mean longer range for me. It means I can pass other cars and drive the speed I want when I'm up in the mountains, instead of having to eke out every last mile. If I get 8MPG in my mustang because I'm enjoying my drive, there are gas stations every few miles, even in state parks. EVs burn "gas" just as quick if you drive them the same way, but there's no charger for 60 miles. The KIA EV6 GT just can't make use of its 580hp in the places I'd like to enjoy it because it only has 200 mile range to start with.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#60

Post by kube-system »

lastofthemojito wrote: post #47
hamandcheese wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When will this meme die? A Model 3 is very comparable in weight to an Audi S3. The Hyundai Ionic 5 is comparable weight and interior volume to a Toyota Rav 4. The Hummer is a monster either way and is not a good sample.

I feel like that's quite a stretch of the word comparable. The Model 3 is 14% heavier than the Audi: https://www.edmunds.com/car-comparisons/?veh1=401999985&veh2... And the Ioniq5 is 35% heavier than the RAV4: https://www.edmunds.com/car-comparisons/?veh1=401958795&veh2...

And the Audi is already on the heavier side for vehicles of that size. Mainstream non-'luxury' sedans of comparable size are often 3200-3300, like Accord/Camry/Altima, and the construction of these vehicles is a more equal comparison.
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