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Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

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Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#21

Post by linuxftw »

dangus wrote: post #9
canoebuilder wrote: post #6

> 750 Wh/kg is great. To put it mildly. Energy density in the current leaders in that category, lithium ion batteries, 250-270 wh/kg. So, provided a similar or better ratio of watt-hours to unit of volume, we’re basically looking at tripling the energy storage of EVs or significant weight reduction, in the ideal scenario of this design being a safe and cost effective replacement for current batteries.

I think for the EV skeptics it’s easy to forget how fast battery chemistry has been evolving. There’s an common assumption that the EV status quo of 300 mile range at barely-affordable prices will continue forever, and therefore with all the woes surrounding charging and bad weather affecting range, EVs are dead in the water. Ten years ago $30k got you 75 miles of range out of a Nissan Leaf. Fast forward to present d…

I remain skeptical until the products are real and affordable. No reason to buy an electric car now if they'll have potentially double the range in a few years.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#22

Post by rendang »

Bud wrote: post #14
megaman821 wrote: post #12

This will be neat if it works but really there isn't going to be a huge market for 500+ mile cars vs the cost savings of getting a 300-400 mile car. The exception might be road-trippers and people who do a lot of towing but I suspect that is a much smaller population than people tend to think.

Americans don't buy cars anymore, though; not really. They buy ludicrous gigantic heavy pickups and SUVs. So what we're really talking about is getting decent range into oversized pickups that their owners want to accelerate like sports cars and still have a nice air-conditioned interior even when it's 150 degrees on the pavement due to climate change.

Americans also buy a lot of small to medium CUVs

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#23

Post by asdff »

megaman821 wrote: post #12

This will be neat if it works but really there isn't going to be a huge market for 500+ mile cars vs the cost savings of getting a 300-400 mile car. The exception might be road-trippers and people who do a lot of towing but I suspect that is a much smaller population than people tend to think.

People like having extra capacity even if they scarcely use that capacity. This is why the F150 is the best selling car in America. Not to mention its better in general to have extra battery capacity than you might reasonably need today, as it will degrade with age, or temperature.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#25

Post by ultrarunner »

alostpuppy wrote: post #17
canoebuilder wrote: post #6

> 750 Wh/kg is great. To put it mildly. Energy density in the current leaders in that category, lithium ion batteries, 250-270 wh/kg. So, provided a similar or better ratio of watt-hours to unit of volume, we’re basically looking at tripling the energy storage of EVs or significant weight reduction, in the ideal scenario of this design being a safe and cost effective replacement for current batteries.

Out of curiosity, What is the wh/kg for petrol?

Wikipedia says 13000 Wh/kg, but you have to keep in mind that due to physics, wear considerations, and emissions regulation, most cars are only 20-40% efficient. At a 20% efficiency, that's 2600 Wh/kg. This is further constrained by gear ratios, meaning not all power is available at all times.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#26

Post by ninkendo »

asdff wrote: post #23
megaman821 wrote: post #12

This will be neat if it works but really there isn't going to be a huge market for 500+ mile cars vs the cost savings of getting a 300-400 mile car. The exception might be road-trippers and people who do a lot of towing but I suspect that is a much smaller population than people tend to think.

People like having extra capacity even if they scarcely use that capacity. This is why the F150 is the best selling car in America. Not to mention its better in general to have extra battery capacity than you might reasonably need today, as it will degrade with age, or temperature.

It's also why the F150 lightning appears to be an absolute flop: Its range goes to crap when you're towing, and people who want F150's at least think of themselves as people who want to be able to tow. (Actual towing with F150's is likely low, but most people who buy one, want to have the option.)

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#27

Post by lesuorac »

alostpuppy wrote: post #17
canoebuilder wrote: post #6

> 750 Wh/kg is great. To put it mildly. Energy density in the current leaders in that category, lithium ion batteries, 250-270 wh/kg. So, provided a similar or better ratio of watt-hours to unit of volume, we’re basically looking at tripling the energy storage of EVs or significant weight reduction, in the ideal scenario of this design being a safe and cost effective replacement for current batteries.

Out of curiosity, What is the wh/kg for petrol?

https://www.google.com/search?q=Wh%2Fkg%20of%20gasoline

Fuel Energy by mass (Wh/kg) Energy by volume (Wh/l)

Diesel fuel 12,700 10,700

Gasoline 12,200 9,700

Natural gas (250 bar) 12,100 3,100

Body fat 10,500 9,700

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#28

Post by dreamcompiler »

lelandbatey wrote: post #19
megaman821 wrote: post #12

This will be neat if it works but really there isn't going to be a huge market for 500+ mile cars vs the cost savings of getting a 300-400 mile car. The exception might be road-trippers and people who do a lot of towing but I suspect that is a much smaller population than people tend to think.

Since it's a bit more than a doubling of energy density, it's less that you can get a 500+ mile car and more that you can drop the price & weight of a 300-400 mile car. Imagine cutting the weight of an EV battery by 500 pounds while maintaining its current capacity. All that weight savings will probably get you some additional range, and save you on cost of materials, meaning you could cut the battery down a bit more…

...provided the number of useful recharges is at least as high as Li-Ion, and preferably more like LiFePo or even better.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#29

Post by benrapscallion »

megaman821 wrote: post #12

This will be neat if it works but really there isn't going to be a huge market for 500+ mile cars vs the cost savings of getting a 300-400 mile car. The exception might be road-trippers and people who do a lot of towing but I suspect that is a much smaller population than people tend to think.

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said a faster horse. -Henry Ford

This is analogous to how people thought nobody would need a 100 GB hard disk on their personal computer when 1 GB hard disks were the norm.

Re: Tell HN: I think I found Toyota's battery

#30

Post by acover »

hinkley wrote: post #10
dangus wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think for the EV skeptics it’s easy to forget how fast battery chemistry has been evolving. There’s an common assumption that the EV status quo of 300 mile range at barely-affordable prices will continue forever, and therefore with all the woes surrounding charging and bad weather affecting range, EVs are dead in the water. Ten years ago $30k got you 75 miles of range out of a Nissan Leaf. Fast forward to present d…

Are batteries still on a roughly 3-4% annual rate of improvement? Or has that shifted? So,e of that will have been aerodynamics (the industry is slowly boiling the frog on styling vs aerodynamics) and motor efficiency, which has climbed a lot in the last 15 years.

In 8 years costs per kWh dropped from $732 to $151 usd-2022 [0]. Halving every few years but it's been slowing down.

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/883118/global-lithium-io...

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