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A New Mode of Cancer Treatment

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Re: A New Mode of Cancer Treatment

#131

Post by galangalalgol »

incrudible wrote: post #109
ericmcer wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously, the google generative AI actively suggests completely inaccurate things. It has no ability to say: "I don't know", which seems like a huge failing. I just asked "what does the JS ** operator do" and it made up an answer about it being a bitwise XOR. 1 ** 2 === 3. The fact that all these LLMs will confidently suggest wrong information makes me feel like LLM is going to be a difficult path to AGI. It will be…

> It has no ability to say: "I don't know" So do many humans. The expression of ignorance and self-doubt must certainly be woefully underrepresented in training data.

Yeah, no one posts to say they don't know the answer. It is the smallest of the problems that come from using the internet to train. I realize these are just statistical text generators, but if we do end up training a real AGI on the internet I find that both apalling and terrifying. If I said my parenting strategy was to lock my genius newborn in a room with provided food and water and a web browser, you'd call me insane and expect my child to be a sociopath...

Re: A New Mode of Cancer Treatment

#132

Post by emmanueloga_ »

AbrahamParangi wrote: post #77
azinman2 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’re not getting AGI anytime soon…

What exactly is your definition of a AGI? Because we’re already passing the Turing test, and so I have to wonder if this isn’t just moving the goalposts.

Self consciousness. Human-level of reasoning. Feelings, etc.

We are NOT close to AGI.

* Fancy Markov chain (LLM) is not AGI.

* Stable diffusion style of image generation is NOT AGI.

* Fancy computer vision is NOT AGI.

Honestly, I don't think we are any closer to AGI. What we are seeing is the peak of "fancy tricks" for computer generated artifacts.

Re: A New Mode of Cancer Treatment

#133

Post by distortionfield »

boomerango wrote: post #80
submeta wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps these rapid advancements are an indication that we've been visited by, or are currently under the guidance of, a significantly more advanced civilization. /s

Whoever is running the simulation is getting bored. Wild fires, what is sure to be a historic hurricane season, floods, war, and a technological leap.

Sim city with cheat codes irl

Re: A New Mode of Cancer Treatment

#134

Post by dantheman »

luma wrote: post #118
midnitewarrior wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If room temp superconductivity leads to a practical fusion reactor, a good portion of earth destruction for energy development will end. Starting to fix things first involves stopping the destruction of things.

We already have SC (if expensive to run), how does room temp SC make fusion possible where it wasn’t before?

It simplifies and it makes it less expensive - it's one less thing to go wrong.

Re: A New Mode of Cancer Treatment

#135

Post by mustacheemperor »

simiones wrote: post #31
gumby wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does not seem particularly high right now, TBH.

It's not particularly high when there is an active war between Russia and an almost-NATO country, supported by NATO, with fighting happening right at NATO borders? I would say it's perhaps never been higher since the Cuban missile crisis.

Per Thirteen Days, for a long stretch of the crisis the US mainland’s nuclear bombers were armed and airborne, constantly, for a potential first strike on Cuba. When the U-2 was shot down Kennedy directly threatened that another attack would result in the destruction of the defense installations and made it known as rumor he was considering nuking the island in retaliation. Curtis LeMay and some of the other cabinet staffers were sincerely in favor of a first strike throughout the conflict.

So I think we’re still quite a ways off from that level of threat.

Re: A New Mode of Cancer Treatment

#136

Post by algoatecorn »

emmanueloga_ wrote: post #132
AbrahamParangi wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly is your definition of a AGI? Because we’re already passing the Turing test, and so I have to wonder if this isn’t just moving the goalposts.

Self consciousness. Human-level of reasoning. Feelings, etc. We are NOT close to AGI. * Fancy Markov chain (LLM) is not AGI. * Stable diffusion style of image generation is NOT AGI. * Fancy computer vision is NOT AGI. Honestly, I don't think we are any closer to AGI. What we are seeing is the peak of "fancy tricks" for computer generated artifacts.

Aren't we all just performing probablistic decision paths in our own minds? Would "feelings" improve decision accuracy in artificial systems?

Re: A New Mode of Cancer Treatment

#137

Post by cubefox »

reader5000 wrote: post #130
cubefox wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGPT (instruction tuned autoregressive language models) indeed already seems quite general (it's good at conversation Turing tests without faking it like ELIZA), even if the absolute intelligence is limited. Level of generality and intelligence is not the same. Something could be quite narrow but very intelligent (AlphaGo) or quite general but dumb overall (small kid, insect). Okay, ChatGPT is only text-to-text, b…

> I think one missing step is to fuse training and inference regime into one, just as in animals It's not clear it is one. Sleep is training (replay from hippocampus). Wake is inference.

Sleep could be for long term memory, but clearly not everything else is "context" (short term memory). Maybe you learn something in the morning which requires you to remember it for >12 hours before you go to bed.

Re: A New Mode of Cancer Treatment

#138

Post by 93po »

boomerango wrote: post #80
submeta wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps these rapid advancements are an indication that we've been visited by, or are currently under the guidance of, a significantly more advanced civilization. /s

Whoever is running the simulation is getting bored. Wild fires, what is sure to be a historic hurricane season, floods, war, and a technological leap.

I’m in my 30s and I’m not sure there’s ever NOT been a war for as long as I’ve been alive

Re: A New Mode of Cancer Treatment

#139

Post by influx »

highwaylights wrote: post #59
midnitewarrior wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm hopeful that superconductors leading to practical fusion reactors can provide the energy to start pulling some carbon out of the air and ocean. I'm thinking this is the only way to reverse the damage on the human timeframe. I admit it's a longshot, but I think it's the only chance we have. The superconductor news is welcome, we just need to see it get truly confirmed without a doubt.

Not to be a bummer but by far the most likely outcome here is that we don’t currently have a room temperature super-conductor, we never pull a consequential amount of carbon out of the atmosphere, and we don’t get significantly workable sustainable fusion in a timeframe that makes a difference. You’d need a bunch of jackpots to come up, in a row, immediately, at this point for technology to provide a way out of the c…

What’s your thoughts on nuclear power?

Re: A New Mode of Cancer Treatment

#140

Post by claytongulick »

TigeriusKirk wrote: post #75
lelag wrote: post #2

If 2023 ends up giving us AGI, room-temperature superconductors, Starships and a cure for cancer, I think we will able to call it a good year...

I'm impressed the replies to this manage to turn your celebration of several positive possible developments into a doomsday discussion.

There's a mental model that many people have which is rooted in negativism.

I believe it's a form of intellectual laziness who's roots lie in self-consciousness. Meaning, that some people project internal feelings of inadequacy onto the external world.

And I understand the temptation there - if I'm not competing well at a game, the immediate tendency is to blame the game (I stink at golf -> golf is stupid).

One of the reasons doom porn is so popular because it's the ultimate "out": I don't need to focus on myself and self-improvement, which is hard, when we're all going to die anyway.

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