101–110 of 215 posts
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There is still the threat of WW3...
Nuclear war, maybe. WWIII would require two global superpowers, not a global superpowers and a country with the GDP of Greece that's struggling to remain a regional power.
If 2023 ends up giving us AGI, room-temperature superconductors, Starships and a cure for cancer, I think we will able to call it a good year...
Perhaps these rapid advancements are an indication that we've been visited by, or are currently under the guidance of, a significantly more advanced civilization. /s
If 2023 ends up giving us AGI, room-temperature superconductors, Starships and a cure for cancer, I think we will able to call it a good year...
> Starships Where? Humanity does not have the capability to travel between planetary systems.
If 2023 ends up giving us AGI, room-temperature superconductors, Starships and a cure for cancer, I think we will able to call it a good year...
Fusion energy will have to wait for 2024 though
If 2023 ends up giving us AGI, room-temperature superconductors, Starships and a cure for cancer, I think we will able to call it a good year...
We’re not getting AGI anytime soon…
It was for me unclear when the knot will rip from an investment point of view.
Everyone is investing in ai now.
This will leapfrog what we already see.
And yes John carmacks bet to solve it is a big bet but this is also a very good sign
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I think humanity deserves it after so many consecutive weird years
I doubt the extinction of the human race via a runaway technological event will turn the planet into a wonderland paradise for the rest of the species that inhabit our planet. The planet itself, being a rock, doesn't care, at all.
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There is still the threat of WW3...
Nuclear war, maybe. WWIII would require two global superpowers, not a global superpowers and a country with the GDP of Greece that's struggling to remain a regional power.
No, it wouldn’t. You can have a World War without global superpowers on both sides (you need a wide geographic alignment of such power to, balanced for the relative difficulty of force projection on both sides, reach aggregate near-parity across a widely geographically dispersed set of conflict theaters, but you can do that with a global superpower on one side and a coalition of major regional powers in different regions on the other.
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We could, we're not there yet but at the current rate we could be less than 10 years away from it.
Maybe? Really hard to say. We haven’t had any major advancements in planning, none of the current advances have done anything with memory (retrieval augmentation is a not very good hack and fine tuning doesn’t qualify for AGI), perception is getter better but still has a ways to go, we dont have any foundational multi-modal models that can extend to arbitrary new modalities like learning arbitrary new sensors, etc et…
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We’re not getting AGI anytime soon…
Seriously, the google generative AI actively suggests completely inaccurate things. It has no ability to say: "I don't know", which seems like a huge failing. I just asked "what does the JS ** operator do" and it made up an answer about it being a bitwise XOR. 1 ** 2 === 3. The fact that all these LLMs will confidently suggest wrong information makes me feel like LLM is going to be a difficult path to AGI. It will be…
So do many humans. The expression of ignorance and self-doubt must certainly be woefully underrepresented in training data.
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What exactly is your definition of a AGI? Because we’re already passing the Turing test, and so I have to wonder if this isn’t just moving the goalposts.
ChatGPT (instruction tuned autoregressive language models) indeed already seems quite general (it's good at conversation Turing tests without faking it like ELIZA), even if the absolute intelligence is limited. Level of generality and intelligence is not the same. Something could be quite narrow but very intelligent (AlphaGo) or quite general but dumb overall (small kid, insect). Okay, ChatGPT is only text-to-text, b…
This will be a great strategy very fast.
It shows to be quite good for image generation already