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The infamous coin toss

ergodicityeconomics.com

181–190 of 258 posts

Re: The infamous coin toss

#181
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who should own media? Private people, or the state? I mean of course — who should own media.. we have precisely two choices, and no possibility to imagine anything else! What you’ve put forward is known as a false dichotomy. That is a situation where you present two options as if they are the only options. Oh wow — in your response Re government you have literally stated a dichotomy. Alright. I feel bad now. I have…

Unless you're paid by the word, it'd be better to skip all that and state your third option.

There is far more than just 3 options and suggesting any specific option is again falsely limiting the discussion.

(1) Government ownership, (2) ownership by a single rich person, (3) ownership by a nonprofit, (4) ownership by the employees, (5) ownership by the readers…

However, suggesting just one additional options focuses excessive attention to that specific option. Mentioning how much Twitter has changed going from a public company to a private one owned by a single wealthy person is only barely related to the underlying argument here. Namely, that you need to consider many options and their individual tradeoffs not just 2 bad options.

Re: The infamous coin toss

#182
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unless you're paid by the word Ad hominem.

It's snarky, but it's not ad hominem.

It’s not the main attack but you can have many fallacies in a single argument. Attacking the length of an argument rather than the thrust of the argument is an Ad hominem fallacy.

It’s also snarky.

Re: The infamous coin toss

#183
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that 1 or 2?

I don't know about options, but I was describing two main buckets you could classify things in, so...1ish? The irony of you determinedly pinning me down, when I'm happy to converse, while you will do anything but answer what I was asking, is hopefully not lost on you.

Apparently I will do anything but answer what you were asking.

Your question was:

>Who should own media? Private people, or the state?

The reason why no one ought to answer a question like that is because it is presented in a format identical to a “bad faith” question.

You may have meant it genuinely but it looks like the old “Have you stopped beating your wife?” lawyer trap.

I chose not to answer the question because it was recognisable as a “false dichotomy”. Then I explained my reasoning and so on.

I wasn’t “doing anything but answer”ing what you were ostensibly asking. Avoiding it was easy. Trying to inform you and anyone else reading of why such a question is never worth answering, is what took a lot of effort. That’s just par for the course if one chooses to respond to a question that has the format of a bad faith argument. I don’t mind.

So (to carry on your schtick) apparently you feel that if “the undeserving rich” are, as I suggested, in any way restricted from owning media, the only other bucket is state controlled media. Well I’m sorry you feel that way. Perhaps a democracy could have some laws or something, without turning into a fascist state. Seriously - the general category of “functional democracy” provides millions of shades “between” oligarchy and totalitarianism - but even saying “between” is giving too much credence to a bad faith preposition.

I’ll go through it for you again if you wish.

Over here at a specific extreme we have a totalitarian regime controlling all the media. Over here at a different extreme we have a small number of rich people owning everything including control of media.

Now we can construct a 1 dimensional line and say that these are two extremes on a single axis. And we can go even further and say, as you have, that all possibilities fall into these two buckets.

Consider though that this world we live in and the world of political possibilities is not a one dimensional world. Nor is it two dimensional or three dimensional. It is “n” dimensional for some inconceivably large “n”. There are many different ways that power can be distributed, channeled and many more ways in which benefits and taxation can be organised - and or other mechanisms and feedback systems other than these. A functional democracy can avoid being either of those two specific buckets. That one dimensional line and those two specific buckets are not in any way inevitable.

Re: The infamous coin toss

#184
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's snarky, but it's not ad hominem.

It’s not the main attack but you can have many fallacies in a single argument. Attacking the length of an argument rather than the thrust of the argument is an Ad hominem fallacy. It’s also snarky.

There was no argument. Only a claim. And ad hominem is attacking the person, not the argument (e.g. "They might say that, but they're a Democrat.")

Re: The infamous coin toss

#185
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not the main attack but you can have many fallacies in a single argument. Attacking the length of an argument rather than the thrust of the argument is an Ad hominem fallacy. It’s also snarky.

There was no argument. Only a claim. And ad hominem is attacking the person, not the argument (e.g. "They might say that, but they're a Democrat.")

Claims are arguments, just poorly supported ones.

Ad hominem includes many types attacks on a person that aren’t about the person but how they presented the argument. Ie mocking how slow someone spoke, or in this case how many words they used: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

Re: The infamous coin toss

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“current bankroll” is the issue here. 1 * 1.5 * 0.6 = 0.9 < 1.

Not getting it. There are FOUR possible outcomes in two consecutive rolls. HH: 2.25! HT: 0.9 TH: 0.9 TT: 0.36. Expectation: 4.41/4 = 1.1025. The losses due to HT/HT get more than offset by the massive gain from HH over TT. I can imagine there are arguments to be made about median expected value, and the effect on concentration of wealth. But whatever they are, they aren't being made.

We need the geometric rather than the arithmetic or median expected value.

HH: 2.25 HT: 0.9 TH: 0.9 TT: 0.36.

Expectation: (2.25 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.36)^(1/4) = 0.9. So you expect to lose 10%. The losses don't get offset by the wins. Intuition: Possibility of losing 100% is not offset by a possibility of winning 100%, so the arithmetic mean is wrong.

Re: The infamous coin toss

#187
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn’t an adverserial exchange my friend. I’m sorry if I got on your nerve with the “worldly and educated” jab, but you were (and have continued to be) quite condescending in your responses. Have a nice day :)

Um ok. Backing up a little and answering your next question. The naivety is that you say “I know vat is regressive but if it’s a low amount…” Ok. First thought I had here was: What a middle class person considers a low amount of tax on a necessity is not the same as what a poor person considers a low amount of tax on a necessity. At that point - just pondering that, which is only a preliminary consideration, I think…

Ok thanks for that perspective.

To answer your point, the thing about prices and taxes is that the price will be basically whatever the market will pay. It is not determined by the cost of service except at the lower end. So a low VAT (compared to no VAT) will come mostly out of the profits and not so much from a price increase.

This is especially true when the current situation is in most places that there is a rather high VAT, so there the lower VAT will actually reduce prices a little bit, but again not by the whole difference because the price of necessities isn’t determined by the cost but by demand.

In any situation however I remain of the opinion that until we get a progressive wealth tax we’ll continue on the same path of increasing inequality that ultimately destroys democracy.

Re: The infamous coin toss

#188
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not the main attack but you can have many fallacies in a single argument. Attacking the length of an argument rather than the thrust of the argument is an Ad hominem fallacy. It’s also snarky.

There was no argument. Only a claim. And ad hominem is attacking the person, not the argument (e.g. "They might say that, but they're a Democrat.")

You were claiming that I was being paid per word.

That’s an “ad hominem” attack because it is against me.

Please refrain from doing that to people, whether me or others.

Re: The infamous coin toss

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not getting it. There are FOUR possible outcomes in two consecutive rolls. HH: 2.25! HT: 0.9 TH: 0.9 TT: 0.36. Expectation: 4.41/4 = 1.1025. The losses due to HT/HT get more than offset by the massive gain from HH over TT. I can imagine there are arguments to be made about median expected value, and the effect on concentration of wealth. But whatever they are, they aren't being made.

In the long time limit, there are about the same number of heads and tails, and since all changes are multiplicative, the coin tosses can be permuted. We can thus divide the game into two sets of coin tosses: excess heads or tails that represent a negligible amount of good or bad luck, and many HT pairs, each of which shrinks EV by 0.9. Put another way, for each HH pair you should expect a TT pair, and a HHxTT or TTx…

The * characters got stripped from your message and interpreted as italics markers. What you probably wanted to write:

2.25 * 0.36 = 0.81 = 0.9 * 0.9.

Re: The infamous coin toss

#190
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree, that conclusion is wrong because you forgot to look at the win-win and loss-loss cases. Even with two coin tosses, as in your example, you'll win on average: 1.5 * 1.5 = 2.25 0.6 * 1.5 = 0.9 1.5 * 0.6 = 0.9 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.36 => 1.1025x total It's counter-intuitive because even though you almost always lose, you still win (linear) wealth on average (but not median). The difference is that if you have unl…

You should maximize the geometric EV, not the (usual) arithmetic EV. In your average calculation you took the arithmetic mean, but the geometric mean is relevant. (2.25 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.36)^(1/4) =0.9 Which is below 1! To test the geometric mean with the earlier example ("+100% is equivalent to -50%"): (2.0 * 0.5)^(1/2) =1, as expected.

Not quite; there's no such thing as a geometric EV (EV is by definition always arithmetic). Instead, you calculated the geometric growth rate, which the Kelly criterion would then maximize; but it doesn't maximize your average outcome. Try it; run a simulation, and you'll see what I mean! (Some guy already posted his results [1])

If you're curious, I wrote a fairly lengthy explanation in another comment [2] about why your calculation is preferable in many cases, but to maximize average wealth, you really do want to go all-in.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36982560

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36986147

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