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Joel on Software: Anecdotes

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Re: Joel on Software: Anecdotes

#41

An Anecdote can have a place and a purpose - heck, that's most of my blog. But the plural of 'Anecdote' is not 'Data'.

What is data more than a plurality of anecdotes? http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=239392

A plurality of anecdotes sampled without bias?

That's the problem: interesting data points become anecdotes while uninteresting data points don't, which is why you can't reconstruct the data from the anecdotes.

Re: Joel on Software: Anecdotes

#42
post #24

On Sunday Dave Winer defined "great blogging" as "people talking about things they know about, not just expressing opinions about things they are not experts in." Can we get some more of that, please? Thanks. Irony, defined. :-) I kid. I think Joel's problem here is that he missed the point where any of these guys claimed to be doing anything more than making a bunch of observations. Galdwell certainly isn't science,…

"Galdwell certainly isn't science, but I don't think he proclaims to be either." The problem is that the majority of people will think it is science. It is written in a book, so it has to be true.

isn't science must be the new intellectual attack cliché.

Would someone care to define this proper science?

Re: Joel on Software: Anecdotes

#43
post #42
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Galdwell certainly isn't science, but I don't think he proclaims to be either." The problem is that the majority of people will think it is science. It is written in a book, so it has to be true.

isn't science must be the new intellectual attack cliché. Would someone care to define this proper science?

I don't know about Gladwell's book (it sounds rather good actually), but I think officially science is defined via testable hypothesises and their tests. Maybe Wikipedia could help?

Re: Joel on Software: Anecdotes

#44
From his quote of Kakutani: "Much of what Mr. Gladwell has to say about superstars is little more than common sense"

This is what has always bothered me Gladwell's writings, and when I see someone list 'Blink' as one of their favorite books it pretty much tells me they are someone of little substance. Gladwell is simply a formula writer (and his speeches follow a similar format) and I find it amazing he has extended his popularity this far.

Re: Joel on Software: Anecdotes

#45
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is data more than a plurality of anecdotes? http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=239392

A plurality of anecdotes sampled without bias? That's the problem: interesting data points become anecdotes while uninteresting data points don't, which is why you can't reconstruct the data from the anecdotes.

Right, but people always make the statement without qualification. So just saying "the plurality of anecdote is not data" is simply not true. You can say "may not be scientific" or "may be incomplete" but to say it is not data is incorrect.

Re: Joel on Software: Anecdotes

#46
This is about as dumb as picking holes in Mythbusters episodes. These sorts of books are not designed to be "hard" science, packed with raw data, and reliable, but dull, outcomes.

Books like those you see in the airport, the type that Gladwell, Godin, and the like write, are designed to be science-entertainment. It's just science (or marketing, in Seth Godin's case) as entertainment.

If these sorts of books actually get people interested in and reading about science in the first place, it's awesome! There's no way the general public will read dry academic papers, no matter how scientifically valid they are. If people build up an interest from somewhat exaggerated but entertaining books that introduce certain scientific principles, we are improved as a society.

Re: Joel on Software: Anecdotes

#47
post #8
post #2

A lot of essays are extrapolated anecdotes. It's not an intrinsically evil form. You just have to do it right.

If you have real data, and used the anecdote to illustrate it, you're doing it right. If you give us the anecdote, but don't extrapolate to wild grand theories, you're doing it right... simultaneously telling an interesting story and giving people more data points to build up their own understanding of how the world works. If you give us an anecdote, then tag on some theory so that the anecdote isn't mere storytellin…

I'm not trying to be a wise guy but can you define "real" data?

Re: Joel on Software: Anecdotes

#48
post #42
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Galdwell certainly isn't science, but I don't think he proclaims to be either." The problem is that the majority of people will think it is science. It is written in a book, so it has to be true.

isn't science must be the new intellectual attack cliché. Would someone care to define this proper science?

Here's a working definition for you: the construction of interlinked models that are proven/disproven by repeatable independent experiments. Science is tentative and falsifiable. The normal day-to-day scientist usually deals with somewhat boring measurements and experiments inside of a paradigm. Every now and then the paradigm is shown to be broken and a new paradigm takes its place.

Usually to call something "not science" is to say it is not based on 1) testable, falsifiable hypothesis, 2) accurate data, or 3) an inability to replicate/verify

Re: Joel on Software: Anecdotes

#49
post #47
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have real data, and used the anecdote to illustrate it, you're doing it right. If you give us the anecdote, but don't extrapolate to wild grand theories, you're doing it right... simultaneously telling an interesting story and giving people more data points to build up their own understanding of how the world works. If you give us an anecdote, then tag on some theory so that the anecdote isn't mere storytellin…

I'm not trying to be a wise guy but can you define "real" data?

In this case I think it's a cargo cult phenomenon. Sometime soon after World War II our culture decided that wearing a long white coat, having a Ph.D., and publishing "real data" was the touchstone of truth in every field. As if demanding "real data" from an essayist wasn't like asking your fiancée to take a battery of psychological tests before you'll marry her.

Gladwell isn't a scientist, as he has said many times. He is inspired by scientists (among other people), but what he actually writes are book-length essays. You're welcome to argue against an essay -- that's what the form is designed to provoke -- and you can do so in several ways: You can write an essay of your own, or you can do a scientific study, or you can even perform a stunt:

After we came out of the church, we stood talking for some time together of Bishop Berkeley's ingenious sophistry to prove the nonexistence of matter, and that every thing in the universe is merely ideal. I observed, that though we are satisfied his doctrine is not true, it is impossible to refute it. I never shall forget the alacrity with which Johnson answered, striking his foot with mighty force against a large stone, till he rebounded from it -- "I refute it thus."

But the modern fashion is to respond to an essay that you don't like by demanding that it dress itself up like a Nature manuscript and then criticizing the flaws in the costume. Which is silly. The more elegant thing to do is to argue with the essay. Write an essay refuting Gladwell. Quote some scientists of your own in the process if it helps. Obviously, debating a guy with the writing chops of Gladwell is a tricky task, but it's better to try (or to remain politely silent and wait for others to try) than to flail around ineffectually.

Or, if you prefer scientific debate to essay-writing, I'm told that Gladwell seems to be trying to provide more footnotes to the science that inspires him. Follow one of those footnotes to the scene of battle, grab a handful of related journal articles, and join the fray. Don't be surprised to find every other scientist on earth alongside you, though. Scientists have a tendency to swarm fields which have been popularized.

Re: Joel on Software: Anecdotes

#50
post #20

Isn't most of what most of Gladwell writes a genralised case of "Alien's cause global warming." http://www.michaelcrichton.net/speech-alienscauseglobalwarmi...

I was surprised to discover that who we have to blame for all pseudoscience, according to Crichton, is Frank Drake, whose office I happen to be borrowing! ;-)
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